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The Think Tank 1110am, China's Economy

Jan 20, 2016|

China’s economy dropped 18% in two weeks and the world’s stock markets plunged.  At the same time, 1% of the wealthiest people in the world have more money than the rest of the world.  Can this be sustained? This hours guest: Derek Scissors - Resident Scholar @ American Enterprise Institute Jeffrey Buchanan - Senior Domestic Policy Advisor @ OXFAM America

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

You know we're all one problem good brings cared boom he told the U Chinese market drop. Thing was 18%. In two weeks. I called oil broker and so much Lou what are we gonna do and rode all of these headlines that the world did the sky is falling. And we didn't cub was chosen that are bred. It's Derek scissors with the American Enterprise Institute. We qualified to author. Brooke searcher is China's economy India's economy. Yours show in these economic relations. Two Chinese overseas investment in natural and aunts and change rates. Those order order and what are read his article these kids that would draw. The stock market and John promptly person. Two weeks but in the words in the case of China. It should not. The Chinese stock market. Is not a true market no words the the concern that we old show orders from and it showed. Should it occur it's not a true mark and fascinating article. What do you know I have lived ms. Susan what is there are important sure or appreciated to open. I have an educated me help me here. Well. Let's start with a Chinese stock market in stock market dispersed to work on how companies are doing whether they've made money lady think they're gonna make money that's why you buy part of that company because it's gonna make money into the money can be given to you if you if you buy shares. A solitary stock market works the company don't tell the truth about the money they're making. People don't invest on the basis and companies making any news that's on the basis of what the government has stock market should rise fall. And and they panic when things don't go their way. So. US stocks are fallen sharply today and if that's do it I said in the article feds do it is. Chinese economic weakness that makes sense to just as the Chinese stock market doesn't make sense because Chinese stock market is a fraud. During forgive me for this forum global balloon problem today. A limit Google Briggs you can get a better connect from reviewing when we come back. Everything usually very uninteresting of one thing that China's head towards economic stagnation. And what as you'd does that mean stagflation. And whatever that means is that going go back to come right back. Questions comments we've got BA experts on Chinese stock market or lack there are of to its eggs or 187. What what you'd think committed these Chinese saw bark of the world seemed to be so concerned about it and particular avalanche to root through woody. And shouldn't be getting all the attention because as its Motley Crue market. We have an author of blow article that says it doesn't reflect the true profitability. Of listed firm to does not replace macro economic reasons. The jet and reflect. Anything that matters to rest of the world. Well luckily we're about on the witness during Susan with the American Enterprise Institute. Derek can wondering your bribing juicy China's headed toward economic stagnation. And blow would that look like what would that be how would that cuts. Well you know the Chinese have reported for a long time he's very high GDP growth for age 1213%. Now they're reporting 7%. There are on their way maybe they won't reported that the Communist Party controls the information. There on their way to 2%. There on the way to the growth rate it's more like powers only China as much pore than we are. So that's that's pretty close to stagnation when you're not you don't have a lot of money here early grind that's what I would call stagnation. What an impact such an impact does a lot less a lot of other countries around the world because. Words were not very connected to the Chinese economy compared to actually Korea our Vietnam. But there's an American companies that do a lot of business in China like apple for example makes a lot of it's found in China. And those companies. Were they can sell to China and make a lot of money trying to end that prospect looks like it's in danger. Because some companies that employ a lot of Americans. We're relying on strategy relies on China for example. Where they need to rethink their global strategy to China stagnate and that's China and right now. You talk about how many of the year big accounting firms in China have little or no transparency. Talk about. More than a hundred Chinese firms do you listed in the two outs and kemba. Oh why is it and make such big headlines in this country and yeah. The and of Texas but not that much end. We concede that what they're doing really Camby trust what they're saying they're doing tip B trusts. That's delicate question I I mean it's worth talking about it don't know why it's such a big deal the Chinese stock market has never been a real market firms had never reported here. Profits obviously so what happened last summer and then mouse and it became important. And my. I'm I'm a China expert pat myself on the back I'm not a US stock market expert. So take this as many grains of salt on my body is really the changes and in China China's stock markets civil fraud. They're economy's been weakening for a few years now really the changes here. That's sometime last spraying and our economy got weaker stock market started to look like it was running out of steam. And a lot of investors and analysts looked around for any sign of global weaknesses and hot. A hot because we are we were Gergen vulnerable. So really the chain wasn't in China the changes in the US where things are not as good perhaps this year's they were a year ago at this time. And we're just looking for an excuse to sell stocks. And and to worry about our economy. The news circuit breaker we read about that bush and a they give a little Chancy looking in China shuts down the exchange. Of what I aboard the news circuit breakers of problem. Well you don't he almost never wanted to shut down to start treaty because when you shut it down every just everyone just assumes. The doctor middleweight world would have gone much farther. What you wanna do is is let the market sell off. For the people start thinking out loud that was too much and so things are cheaper wanna buy this stock gonna buy that stock. When he shut down trading. So there was an example where China's that the markets fell so fast they shut down trading at less than two hours in the day. Also arrested all anyone was doing was thinking I've got a dollar got so I think it itself because they shut down trading everybody else that does sound like themselves. You just create more panic and up that's what they did the next day there was even more selling so. He wanna let markets get to where they're going quickly drawing it out just like the dentist's tank. It's gonna hurt purple or two to take like 25 minutes doing that no one wants that. Get it done don't cut off treating he would see what prices should be in the new laws. All right just help me I have to admit to exchange rage and I have no knowledge and bugged every time every good chunk yeah that the one dropped. That seems to be hoarded tacked on and talk to me about it sharing aren't. No that's that's a good point. We don't we talk about China's exchange during a lot down Trout just talked about it in that reached a Republican to be that Democrats talk about it too it's not just Republicans. But we're really not affected much by channel changer at the countries that are affected by China's exchange trader countries to compete directly with what China makes China assembles consumer electronics like phones computers. They may clothing. The countries to compete with them like Korea like Singapore like Vietnam like Indonesia. What China does changer exchange rate companies and countries. Are directly threatens their ability to export to the US to Europe and so on is directly threatens. And the country's stock markets. Could have serious problem. To try to Decatur doesn't directly impact the US because we don't really compete with China and in that much. In terms of production. But it affects a lot of other countries and then you get that kind of global panic which were seeing right now which has. China says there are changer it's gonna weaken our teams to be which means they don't say it. A whole bunch of countries compete with China. Their stock market then crashed then people are worried about their partners of partners of those countries that are competing which. Their stock market crash and then that's spreading around the whole world in a way. And it indirectly affect the lesson that's what's happening now. I've done troops on the corporate debt thirteen trillion dollars. Here in America and bureau articles that choice in this country eighteen trillion dollar. Every. And now as fuel in that shall politician. That. Talks about China kick in our blog business. Doesn't sound like they're doing a very good job. Yeah that's that's old information and I think people are still talking about the China. Five or ten years ago the Chinese have in Iraq can help a lot of debt since 2000 name. A lot of corporate debt mostly at Christina and enterprises and it's basically paying these firms that they should go out of business that they can't make money that. Are badly want to stay in business and keep complaint people you do that for awhile but. Eventually have to pay the price in the start and it started to be paid right now. The day if you look at the debt perform to our EU retarded our US corporate debt. US federal debt you know we borrow a lot of money and the President Obama. Our our GAAP performance which is very bad in the last eight years in my opinion is much better in China. So they have been in blowing money borrowing money and wasting it. And it's in literally twice as fast as we have even in our last eight years which is not a good performance for the last. And this is the number one reason why I think China's gonna stagnate at all but dead over your head makes gross almost impossible. It'd admittedly you're referring scorched from boom boom we talk about these trillion dollar plus step cured China in the play. Invariably be the economy improves. And the the next president the next head of the sooner than thanks and congress. So is all we have cut the dubbed but ten trillion there and actually it wasn't that big a problem anyway and and I get. Depending on what that liberal or conservative economists on bill Sobel death at his blog to always carried there there's no. Balanced budget. I debt is always going to be there for every country and it's all manageable. It is in it true. The sir indeed should have been. That's normal. You're always gonna have debt the idea that we should always have a balanced budget and no debt doesn't make a lot of sense. Weird debt becomes a problem is that if you're if you're adding a lot of dead year after year the idea of borrow. For everybody liberal conservative you have to borrow. You want to be productive we need to do this because we have we have a way to make money out of this so that no will be able to borrow back. If you borrow one year the tape after next year there's nothing wrong with your debt but the good thing. Be made of money attacks. But if you borrow a year and a new bar again and you bar again and any power again you're blow on the money because huge turn back generating. The income to pay your original debt pact that's a sign you're doing something wrong and people can say well you know these guys it's government can borrow as much as it once or. Or whatever it's not just. What your visit threat of a debt crisis it's also that why do you need to constantly borrow. Are you just wasting all this money if you want whiskey appeal the case some of the pact and that's the real problem what what year after you won your day not a problem. Year after year of rising debt tells you you have bad economic policy because you should be using that money begets something. And you're not and actually have to borrow. I'm not sure that says to them to do with what we're talking about. It's puree in a report by Obama on PBS probably about a year ago. And they've they walked it was these glow Sydney's city chapters in the in China. Of these huge buildings and shopping molds and read it and tour or. There were virtually totally empty. Now I'm number one does truly exists or number two. Isn't just a little small incremental problem or is that indicative. Of the stagnation. You're talking. Yeah he's dead that's a great word it's indicative it's not the only problem. It's not necessarily a gigantic problem. But I do what we're just talking about political winner global downturn had to assassinate look at Chinese did was they ordered their bank can be controlled banks. Dilemma lots of money to people even know most companies couldn't make money because of the downturn. And I'm a big way to money would land and that was building. Homes in new cities and commercial areas that no one. So they took all the state is that they ordered an excellent all the money and all the construction activity occurred and that had jobs for people and for a couple of years Tutu like a great idea and then Nolan moved again. All that money was wasted. And nobody made any money to pay the deck stacked. So you know it's it's indicative of the problem China has wasted an enormous amount of money in the past eight years. He can't get their money back once it's gone he spent an irony those buildings are up there whether people are using memory not a lot of times they're using them. They have a lot of unsold housing in China. An enormous amount by by American standards consuming people. And behind me until housing is is hundreds of billions trillions of dollars now wasted and you won't be able to get back. Final court and do you mentioned that. A lot of experts seem to think that stocks are connected with the general Chinese economic performance. Virtual porn out not true. Do you have falling share price choose. After those assumptions 2014. Same thing. Five years broke poured that in the march of 2015. All evidence it really isn't connected. That it's concerning. That so many headlines. Tell us the little investors the people listen to talk radio. That we got a gigantic problem associated with the stock market. Do you see that changing anytime soon. Probably not I mean well you know I'd shoot. The and you know a year year you're. Trying to think tanking year. Your your listeners are arguing that because they wanna go beyond the headlines a lot of business headlines and the very superficial. The Chinese stock markets on the US stock market and also I must be the reason. Chinese stock market just doesn't move in accordance with the Chinese economy when it's economy do well it doesn't move with a Chinese economy's gene that would do moved within. You have to you know the hard part is easy. But but the real thing that matters is the Chinese economy restore the factory the world the Chinese exchange rate which doesn't address the world is that you product. Any idea got to dig a little deeper so there are obviously problems or I hit the Chinese economy can stagnant got a problem. But so I'm not saying everything's fine it's just Chinese stock market is not what matters. And and people listening and reading should should dig deeper than that they are right I know the stock market fraud what's really going on here. Eric I get an education I did not have blue Ford thank you so mine should have agreed today. Thank you need to come right back and we'll talk about the britches 1%. Owning more wealth than all the brushed of those by 2006. Feet. At least again that's the headline in Britain. Things that questions. Doubled up. I don't gonna switch horses in midstream we're going to walk in the mood for report that says it is. Riches 1% bullying more of them all the ropes and this year. Combined 12100 choose 1% boom to that of the nine you know imprisoned people bridge here. Let's occurred through the rising inequality. Is checked. And we have bug Jeffrey Buchanan. Senior domestic policy advisor at Oxfam. America did you read thank you appreciated that time. It puts a million old bones habits. Exploring for a few words. So I think America is global organization. Working and poverty and help communities deal with. Humanitarian disasters across the world also working here in the United States that. Just this Monday we put out a new report. Breaker for. The Donald is World Economic Forum kind of a meeting of global political economic deletes every year to talk about big global trends. And we put out a report this year I'm really highlight what we think is one of the biggest and most concerning a global economic terms. I'm runaway hit quality. I would have wanted to that you're really being that now 62 people own it much in support council of the world's population. Now in terms of wealth. And this is because it's really grown used to be just five years ago that figure was. A 388. Individuals owned as much as support after the globe. It really we wonder really sound the alarm bell on this there's growing trend of extreme inequality. Because. Not only is. Concerning about it the divide it's really bad for all of us it's certainly for the poorest among us has that agreement consequences. When we look at editions is that kind of shocking figures in the report we talk about. Kind of its growing trend that how our economic assistance or losing in terms of books. Spoke to different rules between the richest among Johnson and and the rest of us. And how really we see. Mean coming out of the global recession. You haven't really seen a lot of its wealth trickling down to addresses in terms of being commonwealth. And instead he's seen this alarming trend is. More more of kind of hard working people productivity gains in wealth that's been created by economy going to go to the top incident those of us. That's struggling down on galore and the economic spectrum trying to make things happened terms for working people. At least. Well. A lot more certainly in recent days you know from the presidential campaign former Olympic events like this World Economic Forum about it. A couple of weeks we really want to take some time to. Highly they need for action. We've we've we've heard a lot of talk but still we haven't seen action and you know it as you said last year that didn't doubt gathered around this time. We said. Italy that we we predicted that 1%. The wealthiest individuals with code as much as the rest of the world by this year. It is actually you know happened this. The support has done it actually happened a couple of months back so the trend is moving faster than even we predicted at this point. Or are both government forward take a break but. Every morning blue curtain a breed newspapers from all over the world picked up. Paper in German born today or yesterday in the boy is related to what they said was as seen in report. What they claim. The top 1% comprises in the one. More than income over 34000 dollars after taxes. Meaning of family for most stern simply a 136000. Dollars to be in the 1%. Is that wrong. He knows different methodologies her for how these things are valuing it. With with our methodology we look at. Critics' lists put out annual analysis. Now well looking at in different dances of the spectrum of how how well this year. And what we did was we look at. The world. It isn't as dropout idea by exports annually in compared this with data. Looking at the bottom half the globe in terms of global wealth and comparing that with the Forbes list. Of those who have the most well and that's how we came to our our figure that the 62 million and it'll. There's there's different way to look at this and certainly we look at the US since you know well and here to the globe. You know obviously. Someone whose middle class. Here in the United States it is different scenario than than perhaps someone who's. A small farmer in India or or in the in China that it there's differences but we're seeing here it's and giving into Indonesia. Looking at a larger trend. That there is this. And gas accumulation of wealth to a smaller and smaller number of individuals. And into part you know you can look at to produce it in the typical that the Japanese can. It's similar resurgence fine trend is happening here in the United States. Which you know when you look at the global economic picture yet their differences between what's happening here in the US and what's happening globally. But a lot of the same trend lines still hold. All right limit trig brig here it come right back what do you think those listening unfair. 1% to doesn't that concern you that at least in some numbers and some studies. In some formula than it did means that. The very from you very very very rich or accumulating would be more than everybody else does inequality Bob you. And too many more importantly. Have you heard any ventures to receive 0187. Our birthing get a letter of equality of the world stage talks to him and for reported richest 1%. Or more. And all the rest by 2016. Of what does we have jeopardy Buchanan and a senior management policies by injured. To watch them. Jeopardy. And depending on. He would of if it's the 34000. Per person I mean and the blue one person but let Tuesday. Those figures we'd wrong if feel all right I've dealt that I would be in 1%. If fund I'm in the 1%. How would that affect and end once I don't know how to pipes and more importantly. How he'd change. Yeah until. Actually in terms of our figures were looking at that we were looking at well which I think that the because your point you earlier retirement income so we're in arcades are steady. You know the top 1% of people in terms of wealth means that you would have. 756. That they're not separate sixty thousand dollars in an asset to be in the in the global 1% of wealth. Which is you know a lot of money that it for the US you know that would necessarily be in the 1% in the United States. Pop. Impact and so we're again we're kind of at a global trend you know the numbers look a little bit different if you look from country to country as we said before. The big issue here though is that. Still much of that well is accumulating. In so few hands. I think more so than 1% figure that the tipping. It's most concerning to me it's just thought of. Yes 62 people having its much wealth does have the globe and so. That means you can have yourself. Is that that your people and effective line. You know okayed that has as much wealth as a 3.5 billion people. That's that the that the concerning trend toward the issue is that I think that we been trying to raise that again you know this has impacted in any thinking in Louisiana today it has an impact. The idea of taxes and in Canada the two sets of rules around taxes. And I talked about tax rates stages you know how some individuals and some companies have been gaming the system. And it I'm moving dollars. To places like the Cayman Islands students with bank accounts. Essentially hiding. The resource has the well that they've been able to accumulate in Indian places and not allowing. Did to kind of play by the same rules is that this small businesses battery door or. Or you know the individual. You know well there down into the joke the app playing by the same book and so what we're calling for. It's that we need to make sure. That we have a set of rules in place that everyone's playing by the same rules that we're gonna tackle inequality. We need to make sure that we we worked and taxes and so. At what has a level playing field for the people who work Clark and have a chance to and you know it's we look to pay for the things that we in this society you know have to pay for it. Education in your health care of these these kind of things in Pakistan the United States or other places. You know one key solution to dealing with that is making sure we're all playing by the same rules and terms taxes and ending tax havens. Job Korea thank you for the time via blog today and thanks for calling him. And and it endure. A couple of the you know moment to cube what do we do what borders from V enters. Well there and chooses clamp down on tax drug mart corporation 200 individual. And that sounds good do and what armed raiders so we and but but a blur unbelievable ago over the way in years. Corporate taxes 3035%. In this country. Well we keep more of their money. Let's skip competitive with the rest of the world and what. Corporations. Say that a lot more than most countries secondarily. Let's let's take a big oil company. You can look at. Ninety something percent of those companies were all boom yeah. By shareholders. Mom and pop operas. People that have made actually acts on their 401K. They've invested their whole lives. You tell them okay you can't go to the country drove toward the 3035%. Acts. The rich guys to brawn with company or slogan get their tax havens overseas. But those holding. Their shares. Get left in their pocket. So I hate unconcerned tool but equality. I haven't heard the anybody. Within answer what you think. Dubbed Leo would call it the thing. Eric wing you. Didn't show yesterday would. Representative. Of the neighborhood groups of the group. All of that that has worked closely with the police and we have leave so I watched what they're doing Friday groove. And we asked him to a comma and talk about to reports. That the Euro police were going to. What word I'm looking for a re deploy. So that debts jobs on the people that weren't pleased people who were not on the streets. And apparently saw the thing says in that conversation and worry in actor Brad. So the police she hopefully is going to be on the street Michael Harrison. To give us the correct information. On exactly what's being done and say what that is. I would call that the thing that brigade celebrity immoral by three at.