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Think Tank 1210pm, Trump & Clinton

May 11, 2016|

The latest polls say Trump and Clinton are in a “dead heat” in the three most important states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Is Trump closing the gap?  Who will be America’s next  President, Hillary or Donald?  This hours guest: Dr. J. Celeste Lay - Associate Professor of Political Science at Tulane University (her expertise is in American politics, political and voting behavior and campaigns and elections) Dr. Ed Chervenak - UNO Political Science Professor

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Well I've become I've begun to low label it the ago ongoing reality series that car crash she and trump. And rear road were blurb gonna start off talking about the primary is Nebraska. West Virginia Saturday cute. About those two races. On board the boo you or questions I'm one of Korea and bird. We hear constantly. That burning surrenders have cloture so just in the superdome good. Category. Hillary Clinton who can beat them going away and we hear over and over no chase hopes. But when you weren't sure. The video club standards. Rallies. The user huge crowd in more in my question it is. What does that say you about the Bill Clinton candidacy. Their elbows would all these sorts doctored Jerusalem salacious. Political scientist at two in university. Expertise Slobodan behave during campaigns and elections doctors think but the thought. Okay. It's questioned what would those big probed why the big crowd the numbers were being told the birdies and used them that chance. Well I. Won that big crowd at a rally. Barely leave. That translated to votes all the time. Some of those people at a rally are her there for the spectacle. There for the show but had no intention of actually voting for Perry enters. And the election. We have seen in the past that. In India particularly among young people don't always translate in June that they number of those at the polls. So. I think that sliders. A lot and don't really put a lot of stock in terms of the rallies such. You mentioned. The lean Hillary Clinton has the super delegates that I the point out that she's not that leading. By about 300. Let elegant as well as CE. Eight. He. Sort of that the reason that she's winning because of the paper daily but that not. It entirely accurate she's ahead but elegant well. And and blushes and insulting both idol and bring it Tuesday. Apparently did an important bird she's way ahead in both shall I. Dahlia yet definitely. The big turnout they. You know have mostly on for her. By the name what box do you own acts I've seen no indications. That this is a conservative blog. Our conservative website and Hedlund says. Relatives cheered for liberals Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump is not that big and could damage. Or what are your thoughts they're beat. It even for the people that called losing my Bruins had called Coleman's films conservatives. Most some pretty large component said that Clinton's win. Oh. Your response to a recent poll that had. Trial and he and Clinton. Fairly close. Some of that key swing states that sport I am mania. And that definitely surprising answer at the wet blanket day for Clinton Campaign. So. I've normally I would say that your conservatives. Are probably right. That you know violence putting money in Vegas on the election I would and Hillary and get away. But then an election like. None other at least in my life and I'm glad it. You know media political scientist. Most of that have been more wrong than right. End. Patent then I mean you know I'd totally we. Terms candidacy. Altered out last summer and fall and really good and that winter this year just kept thinking that he's going to be like. You know Herman Cain war many others from other years that haven't been men went away. And so. You know I would. Relax a pirate Hillary Clinton and I didn't think there at all being overly. In the last couple of days where. Public power of people and they. People do you have a higher and McDonald's all our and it eerie things and people how to hire that you can now jury duty lies and they did not. Things going on now and I'm rid. A long list of things that trump news said. Over the years. And pour abortions. GeMS of George I'm Republican. I'm Democrat. Contradictory. Things over and over and over about core principles. Of conservatives. What it thinks. I. I think American dole who they're really not ideological people. You know we vote for candidates. That we liked what we like they're mad at me like their story. And ill Americans are much more partisan. They're in here it's your Republicans. In a chance the bar. The vast majority of people who are Republicans are going to vote for Donald Trump's. And by irked that for Hillary Clinton either at a lot of talk about I'm Republicans voted for Hillary Clinton. I did count a lot of that at that point we have a long ago. Before the but for the general election. And I don't see a lot of that actually happening but it ideology interpret that the liberalism. That term that we all are to most Americans and so. You know for a lot of conservatives. Fourth down it. Sort of traditional family values can and served a status quo kind of conservatism rather than. You know getting rid of the government programs like Medicare and ball security in Pakistan. It's a question that probably only. A man out in. A move would go back to deal poll. The joke going men from bird truly dead even Florida Ohio and open to giving him and mourn her via. Sentences said since 1960. No candidate has won the president raised without taking at least two. Of these stories they. Joseph it's high but that. Trump takes to those threes state and win. And let's say the real reason he wins. People are just that problem watching and and then again getting thing done. A big thing most of whom are there to go to cage Faried in the end and make a lot of money. Just set that up once every doing training he gets and unlike most prevalent and scanned change much. Because of that the gridlock there. You think happens. In this country. Here they vote for radical. Change. And it's a model. Well I honestly not. We just don't have outlined street. Danger. You don't protest the we have in there that did people talk about that after 2000 right win. Al Gore won popular. But George. Bush won he won Florida he won electoral people there's gonna be riot. Nobody and I think George Bush and the president need not do any thing and you know bow away. Even before the inauguration but certainly one he became president nobody really talked about how he would you know an illegitimate president terror. A media that I'm you know some crazy people on our laps to understand the things that. An apartment Americans even those you voted for Al Gore and or your vote it right. Well a lot of them would say this is discussing ongoing cat but birds. Jabs. In a cup. And it's things. Our daughter says it will meet five more minutes come right back. There are choosing to Erwin league so. I think uses a lot of sound and fury. Signifying nothing are bruising should eggs or. Weaknesses amongst and you schedule thing. That's happened in the century in politics and it's applies dramatic. Two eggs are ones eats up. Welcome backward talking with the doctor wrote so let's lay of political science Tulane. Excerpts in voting behavior in campaigns and elections voting behaved girl or young people. Voting. Do you thing balloon Eagles will be voting groups found Merom. About the numbers that they usually do even no way we can and peoples and that you know. Young people were huge part Barack apartment wing coalition. Outlet would moderately. Not not. Stay instantly and so I don't see it and calling you know or right thing to do you know level that are out of the norm. Will receive your Hillary Clinton reviews going to relieves. Trained crew observers speeches in Poland bankers of which by all reports. She's collected two and one million dollars in speech the news and contributions. And then trump. Saying it's not gonna releases tack bird actual returns and time poured via. Election. To the side things really thanked the voters at all in particular independence or. Is that the kind of information just kept laws and no Rio can't points. I really don't think the panic and matter at that acting is big Mac or anybody would be independent because. You know Democrats don't care about Hillary Clinton the now or her speeches and Republicans. Aren't by the time I election world around really gonna care much about. Strong accent. But independent. Navy that probably. How about the emails later is of course we got report. One of her. Prime areas suits wounds. The State Department in pond and he does he mailed some. You lose a guy apparently that setup home. Club dues that kind of thing we have legs or wouldn't take the of PI to come in and actually. File was char. And I think it got to admit that had been going on for so long and it feels like we've been. Hearing trickle trickle of good news every few weeks they're about to be. That. I just think you know even in the morning. A couple of days that I you know because it. I think that people have started getting it out. You know people that know soccer. This is gonna change their mind and people that are gonna vote for that that the change. But if they'd more BI this commitment end. Indict her. And that would be pretty significantly there are lots of ways between now and a member of the election trick really hat shake that would be one. A terrorist attack god forbid would be another. You know that there there right Ian. Outside and then that could really have that as an important impact on the election. It would open. U of I had the war and was directed by some towards towards. The front side and again would still have all of being 1617. K and there were there horrible for a book on route Clinton's side. Would you just don't fall to burnings and. You know they're really good question. It all depends on where it happened just before the convention are active and I mean the for the convention party can do a whole lot of it. But one convention this happened and nominees had been officially elected. You know I don't honestly know what would happen at some. Something you know and like it wouldn't work drop dead war is something work church capital like that a lot of work to be indicted or a bank job. I I don't know what the official or formal. Prop up looked like there. Com. If we we keep hearing this isn't glued to beat these dirty use campaign. And me in through the world. And you're expected to be that bad and the you were advising. Hillary Clinton we we we cut and go work from da. But what would you advise her how would you advise her to respond. If the attacks oral what a lot of people think they're going to. Well there are a number I think it's going to be really there are. You know trump has exhibited. Though. In and no ability to raise and that's all I don't anticipate that he will be again Hillary Clinton either. Stinky a couple of days ago that your time. That a political the year has written. Advising Hillary Clinton not at all concede Donald Trump's trap about gender. That you know with the the about the time he was saying women have a better than men and you know men and even any and so many. Being sprayed that there. And one error that a lot in these are things. And that. Is that part of the things that Hillary Clinton should. A boy trying to become the candidate when that it that the content. A real gender divide where. You know trumpet trying to appeal to men and masculinity. And Hillary Clinton is trying to appeal to women. But they're they're real danger there. Because some women you know it is not well not I'll vote for Hillary. You know Republican women are not going to vote for her in in large numbers even that they really don't like. Donald Trott. And part of that is because we never won at the right. Why can't. We can't see the president. As a masculine. You know masculine way and that we teach people think that featured the string and aggressions and and I think they'll want to Hannity are real important and show. I would say Hillary Clinton does it stay above his attack and not to rest on and does. Get her out there and do what she would do. If she were against anybody else. Because it wouldn't Marco Rubio Jeb Bush. And had created human ain't started really reacting and responding to Donald Trump's. Needling them. That start when things began to implode for all of them. You forward talk in new. Concern but. At that point the finger upon the next left the balloon or some signs that it's in the board vote a the dog and he thanked we're calling and have a great day. Are covered up actual talent to what doctors are product at Sherman act you know old political science monitor. Continued this session to quality itself. Comments questions. Gibbs call. Well look picked up the item. Political web site to Moody's had Clinton winning Nebraska. Standard. Wear and Wear them for June. Trumbull and Jumbo. Doctor immature but I with the charmed political science professor from you and them. Doctor welcomed the show and bottom line news. And it is it's gone and then draw pride in these headlines and drew Joe's buildings but it's. For the most part we you know certainly not permit the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party and Clinton certainly has the inside lane picketing the democratic nomination. Now the one thing. I've been. Oh a lot of people sitting on both sides of the aisle. Bed pulling in to have the commanding lead and boy it sure looks like it could feel and flow. But. Blown it this league can binge can there Breeden landslide. Jimmy Carter Michael de cock as George H. W. Bush all had similar lead at about the time and loss. That's true. You know it's really hard to trust polls at this particular time this early in the election season that's morally and may. And there's still lots of uncertainty out there. Poles don't have want to noise. You know would it really doesn't make a lot of sense to book of one poll you need to look at polling averages and polling trends. And so we need to get a lot more polls up there to find out exactly. So when we look at the reason polled chose Clinton Tropez headline dead even virtually. Florida Ohio and Pennsylvania. And I think since nineteen succeed no candidate. Who's ever won the oh over Walters without taking at least two with the three states. At tonight's headlines good this for a bit ahead of November doesn't really mean and it. It doesn't really mean anything to me analyst. Like it said people. You know really haven't. Checked in in the are paying much attention to. Election and certainly you know the parties are paying attention. Having it if you look at the primaries. In 22 million people voted in the democratic primary 27 million people voted in the Republican primary. And so most people are not paying attention. And so given the fact that there's lots of uncertainty that still trying to figure they want support there's going to be a lot of uncertain at this point we can probably after. Labor Day. People begin to pay much more attention to what's going. And did this from a number of life sorry Newt dim one of them why did it could be. But it says good of trumbull holds on to all the states have Mitt Romney won in 2012. End it adds Florida Ohio Pennsylvania. He could very easily went. That's right that's right he needs he needs those battleground states those midwestern states and that thinking is that he can appeal to those. It was non college educated. Quite com who are no bearing the brunt. Free trade agreement. And I know it's a big thing to conservatives oral or most conservatives are paying attention. State Department came out a couple of days ago. And serve that area Kee bird close. Crucial to Hillary Clinton went through was working. India's State Department Hebert virtually in charge of the official email accounts. And the State Department says that upon request of the radio. For you requirements. They couldn't find whose email and there was. A lot of news about it or relating to potential FBI investigation. What do you make of that Andy is it to be real important. It's hard to really state whether there's anything to it or not but it's it's hard to know whether anything illegal has gone or whether. It's just floppy you know. You know sloppy record keeping with females and I think that ambiguity is what kind of using Hillary Clinton the benefit of the doubt. Certainly that's a conservative there hoping for they're hoping that you know they'll just come out and Dieter. That way the Republican nominee could easily win elections but it's. Unlikely that that happened. If and didn't happened when one board would be this scenario. Is due blows. Am through the convention would be her vice presidential pick that they had picked up the ball would have Sanders would it be. Somebody new. I doubt that Hillary Clinton would give up that easily the clintons. Are known to be. Very good at putting out these accusations. They've been doing this for the last you know 2030 years. And so that you know there's that the Kinect is anything in her character that would tell me that she would give up that easily. All right coming right banks they would lose students in general one that eats up putting. Where a finger at about the job calling the accord before she eons from and Clinton stay buddhists. Polluters don't trump and Clinton. On the radio doctorate and sure of an IQ you were little political science protesters and look and says Dave report to the latest poll Wall Street Journal NBC news. Clinton. Has dropped about fifteen points with independents. Does that really mean anything at this point. I'd marry math and on number of months ago. And we're talking about polls and changed said read my lips. We or so for a wave from the election. Holds mean nothing. Is that caves here. Still very early that the sale mean anything insist that they're that predictive of the future. Especially the independent. You know they can switch their preferences and any time in and anchored by any sense of partisanship. So. And even if you know say for example Hillary Clinton loses independents it doesn't mean she could lose for the presidency. Mean Obama lost independents in 2012 by honestly yes. That was because. More people identified as Democrats and Republicans and given that fact. Is his people turned out and so he didn't really need independents to him. Did this do use the reporting. Whose broad human. I was reading these zero web site which were ultra conservative Jonathan Tobin. National review Elliott cordon and red state dot com plus it's. A couple of extremely bright Boeing. Conservatives. All just horrified and over trump. And Satan most despicable. Things about him. It isn't that he is doing so well. Wind so many of the equal Powell's words were well known people in the conservative movement or liberal earlier war with the trio. Well the conservatives are at war with Donald Trump. Minutes seems like there's a disconnect between the base. And that conservative establishment. And you know that. And actually establish and has no one to blame but themselves for the rise of Donald Trump be seeing Republicans. The last you know 1020 years. Because very obstructionist party. Try to do everything to you know bring government don't shut it down and or you know not raise the debt ceiling. Which is increase the level of cynicism among Republican voters and so give on the increased cynicism and someone comes and says look. I can fix it. And Donald Trump a dozen of the Jews as people come and fix all the problems that are you know that we're dealing with and government. Do you think that if we did get elected. Analyzed modes president once he got in the opposing sides keep them from doing that much. Do you think cable would just basically do what they usually do and say it all well. We tried wore them with their bees some kind of reel back Paula. You know it's really hard day. You know he gets elected. Does he have strong coattails is he bringing in more Republicans in the house and into the senate. If that's the case then they probably pay a bit more attention to but you know he gets elected based on his. Pure personality and and that meant that. It's easy for the other branches to resist. What he wants to. We didn't show yesterday around trees and language via. Had a page book have denied. But those were important promo former employees and that FaceBook had literally rigged it. They're news range to benefit liberal and so over conservative. A broad enough books don't shows learns and up to implement speech on the dirty for eggs in politics. Over the hundreds of years. To do think it doesn't happen. Do you think that kind of thing could be going well and and and if it is couldn't sway an election you've got one point four billion people read it reading them and used these worldwide. Well you know certainly anything's possible and all's fair in love and politics and so dirty tricks are always going to be part of the game. What do people are influenced. It fine out of the question because most people tend to go to the site. And the and the broadcast programs. That reinforce what there are people. So people aren't necessarily mean influenced they're basically being reinforced by their media haven't. We're bed Hillary Clinton supposedly. Under an allegation concerning emails. Attention is still refusing to given trend rips. Bit of speeches she gave bankers mortgage humane. Millions of dollars you got Donald Trump. Saying I am not going to turn over my tax returns. And his lawsuit that he's involved in. Overworked sung was a big university. Doesn't. Have to go to trial and tool after the presidential. Election. Do you won't of these things are Lucy delighted. I suspect you know that they probably will build enough pressure. To release the transcripts of speeches and for him to release that have circuits because every other candidate that has released their tax. It. All right thank you so much is always good to a few GeMS that you build will be. Beg and you'd come on again I don't know what Carl thank you. Doctor mature over Lanka funeral political science professor. Always code is next. To the intro. And student accepted at the senate bill. Well apparently not be allowed to worry huge job because. It violates the uniform code and her problem. Is considering. All walks of at a more. Coming up its own screwed. And alleged shoe. Baseball and 13.