WWL>Topics>>6-1 6am Tommy, Presidential race & the Electoral College

6-1 6am Tommy, Presidential race & the Electoral College

Jun 1, 2016|

Tommy talks to David Schultz, Prof. of Political Science at Hamline University, about the latest Presidential polls and the Electoral College vs. the popular vote.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Hey David I'm Monica tells me today is nationals something nice about somebody day that's what it is a challenge everybody calls in to do that. And let me say something you're probably the most talented ball definitely the most talented. News reporters and news anchor that I've worked with without doubt and I think you're one of the best in the country and I mean Hanson's. Out ties is rolling eyes let me say she viewed did you block the tight rope. You ride the lightning forests every morning on this 50000. Watt blowtorch. And you do it better than anybody in town. It's very nice seat a series of today is it's not mutual admiration today is he something nice about somebody first day of the Atlantic in the gulf hurricane season. And try to stay with me here is clumsy the way implicated but no hurricane equals a win. A tank. So. If you it's kind of like a football season in that implicate June July gets an easy teams on the schedule you know I mean yeah win. Little bit here load but their lead then it's fine it drives me crazy about this is in August and September that's when you get to the meat of the schedule. And technically goes in June 1 to what November 30 from harm but you know generally speak in the highs are common in the high pressure systems in October. It doesn't happen rarely but August and September that is the meat of the schedule go halves and that's when the water is boiling NS this time so he's starting. Easy and you feel pretty comfortable and then all of a sudden the U you'd. I never nearly enhancing and please don't wanna come here we've been through enough then is get a bad Phelan I think we're gonna have one evacuation this year. Dean I don't know if they came from us now. I just think it will list people that too I won't come aggregate talk about this news survey deadpan as Bill Clinton. No he's not running Hillary Clinton paid bill. Although I had a question that then we'll pose that this morning as well. A transgender president if Bill Clinton where'd it go through some type of operation. That he running again. How some very interesting question and what bathroom witty use but I do now. So a new poll out says that the candidates are virtually tied however. Bernie Sanders beats Donald Trump are also anti about the whole nomination processes that fair. Housing so when I'm out of sticks and only four in ten Americans think it is. Do you think your vote matters and is time to ditch the electoral college for the popular vote and I think it is. As well six well Tommy Tucker back in a flash on debit W well. 615 glad you let us on this Wednesday morning already if you were lucky enough to. The off on Monday answer was it is national. Say something nice is somebody days so with that we welcome in David Schultz professor of political science and Hamlin. University him line saudis say it's whatever it Hamlin university. While I'm very pleased to meet you and I thank you for coming on. We invited you initially to talk about the electoral college and as you vote count and is it's important. To be done away with and the whole primary process but this morning. A new when he anchored the results avenue when impact and IP act pull. Marlys Clinton. And trump. A virtual tie and I think nick sanitized and it is because they could be in a time in a popular vote but in terms of strategy. If Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump board handled lead. In the states. Where's the electoral. Votes are gonna make all the difference in the world that would skew the Renault or the results of this could be skewed is drew. Oppose that right. Correct yes and we should remember that that we do not elect the president by street popular vote and itself first stop. That poll which it is actually important telling us something important. But that poll. Doesn't really tell us now in terms of. Are the presidential race. And again we don't elect president pike street popular evoke some people may call that back in 2000 for example. Vice president Al Gore received about a half a million more on popular vote to ban did George Bush governor bush from Texas. But it yet George Bush won the presidency because. He won the required number electoral votes in the number that people should be thinking about it's 270. You need to win 270 electoral votes to become president that's that's a majority it's a total of 538. To seventy is what you needed help. How electoral vote quickly here how what total allocated is across all fifty states for the presidency is really a week. If these separate states with electoral votes each of those states. I guess I'm asking in the woods is Colby more accurate if they were to identify which I think they tend pretty well right to key states. Yes yes correct yeah I think I think the much more significant hole that we saw was the battle. Two weeks ago I think what also quinnipiac did a poll on and they looked at what are called the swing states. Because they're really only about ten states that truly matter in the election and what I mean by that it we don't the states for example like California New York. Solidly Democrat we know places for example. They like taxes and look at Oklahoma solidly Republican even to a solid red and you probably read also down there up until we know that you'll be electoral votes in Louisiana are are gonna go to a Republican. But terrific group of bulk and state. Those states include places such as Ohio. Florida Virginia. I'm Tom Colorado because the swing states. That could go one way or the other and so the real battle of this country is really down to about ten states because. How it works now is that Democrats have a whole bunch of state at a pretty certain for them which. Depending on how we don't you think they get roughly about 200 electoral votes. Republicans have a whole bunch of state that favored them. Roughly about a 190. And so it's really the balance of these ten states for the whole for the whole flight occur. And that quinnipiac poll and it looked at again Ohio if ward I think Virginia remember correctly it found that those three states. The candidates were did tie it they'll bet that's more significant understanding. How old vote on the first critical swing state record ago. Wallace is set to break here for traffic when we come back we're talking about does. In certain states does our vote even matter I mean window there make up. Feel like we're voting for a winner and feel like we made a difference blood. In actuality of Louisiana's gonna go read and we already knows that in the eighth. And it could be some down ballot elections bloodiest. The electoral votes in and go to the Republicans I know last time. And even campaign here and they got the nomination it and spend a dime other than. If we had it not actively file called the race we wouldn't even have known one was going on other than a local election 618. David Schultz is our guest professor of political science at Hamlin university will be back. With him in a moment right now time for seven WL threat. Tommy tiger inevitably well talking about the presidential elections. Any Electoral College the latest polls would David shields. Our guests professor of political science and Hamlin university and David you know we're getting a text here about Bernie Sanders he's the only one MO they aren't that many really in a poll what he's the only one. That would beat Donald Trump according to pull in a head to head. Election that being said it would be easy for a Democrat to say apologist give him a nomination. Is that their best chance of winning but that's not exactly how it works. And proper rules of the game. Accuracy and her supporters have been complaining pretty significantly this year to say that the rules. Are stacked in favor of Clinton and they may or may not be at this point. But we have. If you look at it from the outside the question can look at from the outside the United States we have a preschool reprocessed for picking president of the United States we go through this. I caught like two year pre primary process that we go through this primary caucus process across fifty states to take six months. Were each state has all the different rules caucus primary. What day of the week how how we're gonna allocate delegates. I mean you stick by it doesn't make any sense whatsoever and that we get to the convention. Armed and did we get to the general election and that we have this thing called the Electoral College really decides. Who's going to be president of the United States. Idol watcher to my undergraduate students. I I will describe the process it'll take me you know couple classes. I do look scratch their heads constantly say it doesn't make any sense I think it doesn't the polls that the rules of the game and what happened this year for good or for bad. Is that. Clinton has played moralist by the rules of the game on edit any beating. Bernie Sanders on the terms of total delegate count plus what's called the super daily. We can have a great debate regarding whether super delegates are fair or unfair. But the both the rules of the game right now. It seems to me like the script is the script is almost slipped where. We had a couple of Republican. Nominees and I think it was their turn Bob Dole and John McCain where they waited long enough and it was their turn so. They put him up the establishment got behind him and I think it's hands same thing here with the Democrats is it not with Hillary Clinton insert Aaron. It is it is if she's any essentially she's been campaigning. Are they for eight years you should read eight years ago lost to Barack Obama. You know many people say that she's really been sort of laying the ground work for this for many many years which you've resigned the secretary of state. I think about two or three years ago accurately exact date you know are speaking tour and so forth he's really been preparing for this in she. Yeah it will give her credit she's got a very good job in terms of a building support again especially among those super delegates. You know who are on Greta probably decide the balance of power to the president's for the nomination the democratic. Candidate. We think about a couple things here were the standard people are gonna vector art first as you pointed out they're gonna say. This straight popular vote he does better against trump then does Clinton what argument on the sect wanted. After we get past Super Tuesday. March 15. Sanders is actually won a majority of the of the current delegates all of in the primaries and caucuses for the gonna say that's another sign also is. Theoretically let's say if it's Sanders were to win but I think California coming up soon. He would. He would be you know arguably good position to say on the better candidate. But but again it's it's it comes down to. Overall delegates super delegates. To the extent that you. Played by the played by the rules to win over and in particular with Clinton if it's public like it's her turn now. Well and that's why some people opine that he made her secretary of state to kinda quieter. And silence her. Whatever opposition she had to him either when it came to the I guess primarily when he came to re elections he wouldn't be challenged. Him. Idea a couple of minutes to ever did really touch on the Electoral College in her getting some votes and well that's pretty much sand like we the people don't count in a lot of people vote of electoral votes only matter. And like Ganske about that historically what was the idea behind this. And will it ever go away will will it take to make it go away because needs and what you want but it. If you wanna feel better about yourself could you voted for a Bernie Sanders. And also I would ask you could Bernie Sanders flip states from. Red to blue. Dot equity thing. It's possible okay so let's let's start with the first one that the framers why. Important think to understand here is right off the bat we do not have a right to vote for president of the United States even today the frame was when he wrote the constitution. Said that they didn't want to have direct popular vote factors no glee which in the original constitution about any voting rights whatsoever that an issue for state. But what they said is that we're gonna have. I'll be a regional state legislatures. Pick the elect force. Com and elect forceful pick the president of the United States. Each state gets the number elect or. Equal to the sides of the congressional delegation. And for the first with 3040 years state legislature picked picked the electorate in the lineup and did their thing. But starting in the 1820s. By the great state legislatures. They've lived. Use popular vote to select the electoral hours who ultimately select president of the United States now there's all kinds of reasons as to why. The claim what why they societies neglect. We'll we'll address those income that Robert thank you professor o.s X 31 time now for double WL offers news we elements on T the corps of engineers manner negotiate. And and just look at hurricane season. From a standpoint of areas. Oak there has been so much to work done by the corps of engineers. We'd like to know in terms of Katrina compare and contrast how much safe from Wheeler. Yeah if the trainer came today god forbid. How would we hold up now hole. Dad's pretty much you're gonna try to find out as I said they've been driving pilings. In delta case are on and a half a year now which makes me think well I'm glad we're safe. But how close glory to disaster before it does what you need to do to make it. Say 640 Tommy Tucker back in a flash continuing. Our conversation about the Electoral College NN. Like creating involved with a T 601878. DC thank you vote really matters. Back in a flash at W talking about the electoral college and I'm getting some tax here about her vote not really counting. Sciences Hillary started her campaign after she deleted her emails. And American die and for American side B Hulu because it was going to arrest of president. The United States I don't know about all of that but in terms of Hillary Clinton. Is there any fear at all when a Democrats meet Milliken and Bernie Sanders in the fact that. That he polls better than Hillary does right now all go back in 88 at this point Michael the doctors at a fourteen point lead. Over George H. W. Bush you're talking I should tell their buddy David shields professor of political science at Hamlin university way they David. Well clearly I think the Democrats are worried a lot different poll certainly don't help but yes poll. All of are not always great predictors of what's gonna happen six months ago our section can say with Michael Dukakis in 88. I think it was on Labor Day to once before the election in 88. He still held about seventeen point lead over George Bush lost the elections so expanded. What turned it I think. I think of writing things one of would be the medium. When Michael Dukakis among other things I'm. Put his book that that helmet on helmet and take a that you had come upheaval will not have been very good interest aren't crying type positions. A variety of different that probably no one single thing about which sometimes say that what people forget. It was a big variable operator sometimes people archer just not good candidates yelled at the end it. At least two that we see that at least in all kinds of places in the same thing here. Is that. There are lots of reasons to think that Hillary Clinton on is not a strong candidate you know she she had incredibly tight negative which means people don't like her I think. I don't know if you're anybody in the world who doesn't know or has an opinion on on the Hillary Clinton everybody knows who she is that they promote it on. This year she's also the fate of the establishment in the year where it's establishment is is he is in its so there's lots of reasons to think. But she's not a strong candidate that the that the problem and I think Democrats are worried about that. But I think they have so much tried everything to order these dealt with the Democratic Party. On the edge he's so strong that it's pretty hard disk watcher are like for example that the establishment Democrat establishment Republicans earlier this year. Last year tied you know it's their course to you know to. Jeb Bush may be a couple of other people and. Let's be frank about it jet boat turned out just to be not a very good candidate when you think about it. Let's talk about before we run out of time the origins of the Electoral College in motion. Was the idea behind this wacky thing. Well the idea was to somehow. They have people who were electors were to be released Smart why pick the president of the United States. And the Electoral College is supposed to be away. A overcoming exceptional little bit regionalism by ensuring that. You wouldn't get with popular vote one area of the country or what we know for tribal were 229 your your streak into Electoral College has its field. Any of the provinces. In fact it. It's got all kinds of problems or somebody can win the popular polled the presidency. On which had a few times and it doesn't strike most of us. Is being very fair or democratic right now op Ed. And therefore we TD record efforts to try to get rid of it but to get rid of the Electoral College is gonna require a major benefits to the constitution. In restructuring at that I guess so the political will do that in the United States and so we BP stuck with the Electoral College is bad it is. But what it really produces and yet it to be the first precepts of numbers. Which really producing for now content to 708270. Electoral votes with the presidency Dirk and swing states certainly decide the election. With a built ten swing state. Only about 10% of the population. I'm really determined who would that states so he had 10% of the voters. Intense state really decide who picked 270 electoral. Seems like Len some new word about a couple of precincts in Ohio so I remember. Correct it all comes out we actually did more specifically we could say with a little tense states are out there are only a few penalties that mattered implicated in Ohio. Whoever wins Hamilton County Ohio which is pursued it and he would wait until I have whoever wins Ohio with the presidency. I'm not quite delicacy just ten people at Hamilton County Ohio for the pole. Particular presidency but that's about how which it's come down to this point in terms of speaking about the polarization and speaking about the distorting facts but you booked twelve colleges. And it's thanks about the national popular vote campaign what does that. Well what that is is an effort to circumvent the constitution and say that if it's a certain number state reaching the put call an agreement interstate compact. And with some simple statement that is that we agreed to test our electoral votes in the way that followed the national popular vote. And there's about. Penn State had to. Supported that lady and that supposedly a way of getting around the that the constitution. And so far though not many statements signed on to that it is a possibility in amongst some reformers. It's it's a very enticing idea to try to get to a street popular though whether the states are gonna sign onto it. The idea's been around for at least eight to ten years it doesn't seem to be catching a lot of fire. As a two reasons why this never changes one like term limits of people. Winning in Hampton still Omar the people that. Don't really want him because they're the ones have been elected and the other thing is that I think is kind of thing that everybody gets wound up about every four years. But then after January to January 20 that goes away. I think you're actually correct Abby would basically with the waiters like the rule for the waiter service table I won by playing. But these rules for Weight Watchers like changes and you true you know we seem to have a short attention span in terms of a lot of issues. And except for occasional we get upset if Al Gore you know it's the most popular book doesn't win the presidency or who who knows what they this year. You know it's it's the reverse it off somebody if it doesn't think that their. Won't get short term upset but the because the past odd because both of have to do what ought to work and our kids to school who undertakes. Thank you sir appreciate your time nobody to talk to you again. I don't look at it like we're having you bet David shields professor of political science and Hamlin university I'd love to talk deal went to six 1878. From you think Donald trumps him in next Prez senator Hillary either the gum. The poll out quinnipiac poll has virtually tied and Donald Trump is made up some ground of course as we said. Michael Dukakis and a fourteen point lead at this time over HW bush. In 1988651. I think along as Donald Trump stays out of the tank and then put the helmet on. Which candidate has that type of grass roots campaign. That has the momentum that has the energy that has the excitement. To bring. That of course Hillary Clinton her voice a little horse. Man just idiots Bernie Sanders and I'm just wondering here you don't local elections. When they have to say the candidate beds vying for. A sheriff full or pagan authors and they know they I can win and a primary. They'll put friends of Ayers up. Not officially but to run for the office is split the vote so much that. If they if they are the leader or close to it they won't make sure they finished. In in the top. Slaughter at least in the top two and make the runoff and sometimes by having these are column confederate candidates has nothing to do it civil war in there. Then they narrowed the field and winnow the field and maybe sometimes. It knocks out the person that they most wanted to running did not want to run against and I'm just wondering with this. Bernie Sanders saying if the Democrats. No. Then Bernie Sanders and I believe it is what the political scientists are telling us that if he runs as an independent that recently puts Hillary Clinton in the White House. Then a virus to worry Clinton I would be encouraging him in the Democratic Party to stay in the race. And run for president as an independent. Now some say that him running would benefit Donald Trump others say him running would get the independent vote and then. Hillary would be Donald. And that's a case that could explain why in my own mind here why Clinton by Bernie Sanders is staying in the race. And now policy retired flood protection on this first day of hurricane season when we come back. We'll try to go parish by parish talk about storm surge because that is. As everybody knows the big. Killer and what causes the most damage that can flesh out a W.