WWL>Topics>>Think Tank 1210pm Presidential Race

Think Tank 1210pm Presidential Race

Sep 28, 2016|

Can Trump recover from the 1st debate, or will he remain in a dead heat with Clinton? This hours guest: Dr. Robert Hogan - LSU Professor of Political Science

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Getting closer. And closer. Forty days till reelection. The big presidential. Election and as we do every day at twelve noon. Return get about patrol board thing good about Clinton and I have been expert to help me doctor Robert Hogan. That was should propose shrewd political science and the questions he can answer Gibbons called Jews in general one it's doubling. Doctors always welcomed the show appreciated guitar. I was going to see video and post debate polls. And that you did to me nude it took quite a while but now the we're seeing them. Trump is calling a war in every debate poll except CNN. Hillary Clinton says when she and then big time. What's the difference here one is will what is. On line and Poland. In the oval and news. I gifts. Regular rippled. Yeah I think the ones that. Most of us pay attention to or the scientific. Polls that utilized random sample in which the survey is surveying. Sampling the US population usually. Random digit dialing one has the same an equal chance of being collected. And that way he can make certain that the responses or an accurate reflection of the government in entire population. And in those polls. The ones and I've seen. Indicate very clearly that the American public. Believe that the Clinton won the debate and one of them I think this scene nimble with some like to one. Indicating. You know that they believe it Clinton one drop of course is referring to the polls that are not scientifically. Is determined. In which people who. Wrong line. They're given an opportunity or. You know sometimes as in an advertisement manner or something to vote. So one of the tail on the Drudge Report who won the debate and click on maps but. Of course that is creating bias because those polls are only on some sites and not others and so yes he can yeah trump can claim that. Those polls supporting him but they are not at all and anyway representative of them the actual population. The United States. Yup that that was one of pursuing survived a red that contradicted season and one Clinton and company were saying. Drug reports. The the people that have been on. Tests that serving three of 73%. Of them. Thought trump would want were you aware that I was not until I had that little breathing and side. The Drudge Report was fake. Although director you mean the the poll that they have on the and I didn't know that I love my eyes I saw it yesterday. Did you lose hosted. By its supply bid mimicked ABC's Sunday. But are we an MRP's site it's called borrow trillions in bread and and they're doing the give and try and rig go online polls. Are moving remembered troops again the results of the cultural pro big tour news. And Arnold and once signed every doubt and say well chose. Several online and stuff but. You bring bring people. Believe. What they already believe. In Dave Reid bought their already believed. Does this kind of thing. Billy you have the chance to do which brought the of the process. I it it is possible I think that we have. And such an pundits an over abundance. We're that was usually the but this will with polls are even the scientific polls even the ones that are done. I think a lot of people discount on all bats com. And if they're just so many did anyone poll result isn't what swaying anyone's opinion that it is it is a way out I would view it. On and add these polls are snapshots in time to and I think of I mean certainly. People and yeah that the punditry. Class and Washington. Look at these things and they recognize that there are just snapshots in time of public sentiment and a lot of them immunity today about some of these things as they ask people you know who won this morning console poll a stressful this morning. Chilling 49%. Clinton one point 6%. Prop one out but anyway and went further and said well is this going to affect your vote. And only 9% of the people. Who says sentences. Said one the other one said that it was gonna affect their ultimate. So. And eat even if people. I mean so what if Clinton is viewed as the overwhelming winner. It doesn't necessarily mean people's votes are going to be effective. And forgive me not given up the phone yet because I'm pants and it it. Via. The big board side to everything Reid says. Web site called read that rogue site called ward chin was behind it. And what they've done they have published techniques and ways to get a broom the usual restrictions on online voting. It was the boat using a Smartphone. Use the devices airplane mode do. Too rapidly change Internet addresses. So that each rove would be recorded. As one you vote. But but the UC and then cold sort of the more traditional pulled doled used cell phone. Well some some of them do some of them do. Does the lead but but the difference but the differences between the catapult it to talk about. It is it is. It is something that is initiated. By a caller okay. And call or is calling in or taxing certain number. And registering their preference for case but can't under the current polls is see him and the Washington Post here towns the traditional. Organization. To do is pool cue the search in this sort of things they sometimes will include. Cellphones. They had. But but but did the initiator of the telephone call is the survey researcher not not that it is not me. The survey respondents. Indicating a preference if someone's calling me my cellphone with a traditional polls and that's why they're able to get a representative sample. And let it helps that because in the path. Follower who controlled the polling was becoming more typical. Is that because they brute you really couldn't get his cell phones I guess that chin well. That federal law prohibits minors saying that federal law prohibits. Random digit dialing. Which is a mechanism that he used to randomly select. Landline you kept. He can't use that technique on cellphones you have to have an actual person dialing number. And that that means it's more expensive to to certainly people who only have cellphones but. The trade off is that the result we get are probably more accurate reflection of some of the of the national opinion. Or limit limit drag brig Bloomberg combine co I would talk to you about the electoral map. Oh over the last few months everything a bread the analysts we've all one. It's look at the electoral map in and problem barely have champs Hillary Clinton's opera and 245 to 46 he was opera ball and suddenly 173. And had to turn over. Blue States that voted for Obama. Are some of the state senator duty. In between states. But I'm looking. Three. 358 web site. Hillary Clinton's 27 here almost 27 line trumpets to 58 almost stupid to not. Let let's talk electoral map when we come back. And anybody good questions on any of this blog did you seed. What do you think what you think scorn on. Did anything you saw on that the big change her mind. Double dubbed delta twos are juror one that aged seven. A finger at about post today thinking about it Clinton thing good about trump. They blew you have dog Robert Hogan and help me o.'s true pro cultural political science. And professor. Post electoral map. And everything seemed to really favorite Clinton for quite a while. Born to the website said the monitor. Has Clinton and Byrd true lead to seven non control of virtually 215 on in. Do you think his college that that close in does this mean. Trump's gonna room Shaw added to seven. Yeah I mean it's certainly. In in recent weeks. Be that the national polls have have closed. And I mean it if you look at the the most recent national polls Clinton is ahead. Five point have to point saw an average looking at its travels the average circled the recent polls. And what that translates into is you know it could look at the states at the states that are the so called battleground states. She is slightly ahead in in a lot of those and so. Haven't races certainly tightened the Bobble the battles she received it does after the convention. Plastered truth a bit of August. Has has. Diminished somewhat and our outlook good bit from what it was in August early hours. And so other race has tightened and that this is something that we you know we we tended to see. In recent elections we have very close elections at the national level and and and this is certain to be expected that it. And that is crawled turning. In the of these blew saves to Obama's aides said Obama got when he brand. Well that's what he's trying to do I mean he's he's going hard and in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. A Pennsylvania which is that's pretty solid state of people couldn't answer. Talk rub the blue wall that is if you. At a lot of the states. Electoral votes. In the states where democratic presidents have done well in recent years and adds up to about 242. Pennsylvania is is there but that's also somewhere that. To these trump thinks that he feels that he can. Take away democratic column due to vote on call workers. Work factory workers in the state like that. And also in Ohio where he can and would that back into. It is Republican side. But it is you do is. You know this is something that debt both both sides. Tend to be looking at the at the real battleground states. And usually whichever candidate wins. By small margins as it typically is tense this week most of those battleground states where it's close and so they outcome an Electoral College issues usually. Could be greater than EC in this in the popular vote. End and what we've heard over the Marlins win Clinton. Have so actually you'd when it came to the electoral map. They would say things like will trump would win Florida's she could simply boron. ABC and still be elected. If you won Florida and Ohio. She could run DET Al consumed it like that but he. Had to get state Debra solidly blue and and ordered to pull it off the is that still blockades. No I don't think yet I think west what typically happens is these battleground states that words very close. Whoever in the end wins. Yet nationally. The good ones are racers and they typically fall in one direction as what kind effect. And so it is is true that could split comedies but it's usually not the case usually a blog about grants states tend to go. Cordial to one side or the other and that person ultimately get elected. For this the very close race it's it's it's you know I think a lot of us have been saying that for sometime it's. Ultimately it's going to be close and and that's what's so much attention gets put on the debate and others were of you know short term. Forces. That you know over time might might. Ultimately. We push it towards one candidate or the other. And a hell we were marred definition does battle grounds they do mean. A state that could give you gore either red or blue. And it and has not. Been bred or blue in successive years. Yes I mean that typically what is meant by that I mean you're talking about a state that Michael Ohio. And in Virginia New Hampshire and Iowa Colorado. Those kind of states. Or are the battlegrounds and and it is there's no use for candidates to. To spent a lot of money in Texas or California right either one because of Californians we'll certainly gonna go blue and taxes going to read. So they focus on those those battleground states and and the undecided voters and often times in those states so it comes down in in many ways a handful. Of voters. In the middle if you will in these battleground states that. That decide our elections of course it's also about turnout in giving excitement or. Getting you're base of support or reason to turn out Election Day and or before but early voting. And you know that's part of the equation too and in both candidates the campaigns work actively focused on that. The key question here that would trump campaign is given. That they're not as well organized and a lot of these battleground states. Do they have an infrastructure in place to really turn out and vote in the way that Republicans in the past half. And I think a lot of Democrats are hoping that's the case Republican National Committee has stepped in and tried to in some of their infrastructure no island data. To trump campaign and that's. That's where we are right now. All right do you love with the editor Kubrick for news hopefully keep an of the 1015 minutes. But when we come back you mention morning console. Hole. One of the few post the big colds and I've seen let's talk about the results there a moment come back double rubio. Time for the news. Think you know about post election to propose debate results. Ended November on the radio would doctor Robert Hogan a large troop professor of political science. A doctor earlier you mentioned the morning console 20 hole one of the few I've seen. After the debate to you mentioned one of these removed the mention boom. Oh only 29%. Of undecided voters said the debate will battery important. How they won't vote only 9% of voters said the debate change your minds. Or the part of the debates that important. Doesn't look like they suede trim and people. Right exactly. An and that's the thing is a lot of people have already. Have firm opinions about vote for the it. Both of the candidates. And I mean you can just look at that a hole. Over the period current. A lot of people already have made up their minds. Large numbers of Republicans and Democrats. Indeed viewed themselves Republicans and Democrats intend to. Vote for that candidate regardless sort of the characteristics of of that and that there were taken happens to be so. They're they're very few people in the right so. Yeah debate still have that much influence in in some respects for the broad swath of people but. They can't affect a few people okay and a close elections as few people. Arm matter a great deal. 72%. Of registered voters. Said they watched the debate. Blunt. Seven acres and those voters world over 65. And the city and all the way through. Does that suggests may be. All of a lack of interest in these. Melinda yields and the younger generation. I'll I think. Yeah I mean that this is sort of typical. Yeah a lot of people tune in and they get Serb board. And so and so yeah I think there are people who get. Disinterested and there are a lot of younger people. Archer's. Less interested in politics overall right. He that's why you signed a big differential and voter participation people who are older. And participated much higher rates in younger people younger people have. You know they've got other concerns in light volume and we take care of job that's sort of thing and so that that kind of finding is that too is it too surprising that certainly. Indicates that you gotta get their attention. Somehow. And both campaigns are trying their best to do that. And you know that this is sort of the nature of of politics in in in recent decades here. According to pull Clinton has some big movies with the women that these 237. I'm in control blow 48 trip 43 not that big lead. Did you do we know who votes more men or women. Women typically vote. More more than men turn out to be higher among women and and not a tremendous amount. But they can devoted that's slightly higher rates. New help for others were factors like in the come agent education. And so you know it means certain that that. That's something big big big campaigns are taking account right. In in terms of where to direct resources. Our new breed her word to bleak morning consoled one of few. Post a debate holds. Clinton leads by three points. You think there's any concern in her camp that. As poorly as. Trump did in the debate. As much of lead she's had in the pen house and at least have one lead is within the margin in the barrel. Drink there's a little panic over one morgue can we do. Oh absolutely absolutely I think that I think there probably. You have to perplexed by why there nodding head more. And now we don't we haven't seen many many post. Debate polls. And you know and and so those are gonna start coming and and and and that's expectancy of that it would bop for. But yeah I think and I think I think you're absolutely right I mean if she didn't just really good job in this debate what more can she do may attract. In the next debate the expectations nauert so expectations are probably isn't it do very well. And quotable bull or did expectation for her she's gonna knock it out of there out of the park. If she doesn't knock it out of the park she does worse an expected so. The expectation game has has you know is is is playing a role here. Landslide breeding. Big hill. Political publications. Havilland. Democrats target libertarian. Ticket. I'm or they concern though over do you Gary Johnson polling I think it's one of only around 9%. Don't know and do they think dead is gonna go higher than that or. Do they think he's gonna take votes from her. I think there is a big concern for does the minor party candidates here. You do that did it both major party candidates have very high negative rate. And a lot of people would like to cast a ballot that they they don't necessarily feel comfortable passing him with Republican or Democrat. And so they're looking for other options. I think there's a lot of concern. For what happens in hand. You know again these battleground states like Ohio and Virginia Colorado and those sort of places. If you if you get one of these candidates like Johnson getting 9% maybe he can poll ten or 11% again double digits. I mean usually people who are voting for minor party candidates. If it didn't over the minor party candidates they wouldn't be going counted it would therefore cast about for major party candidates. But we have that many of them. Is if he gets that high percentage. I mean I think it's. You know it's taking away some vote that would have gone to one of the other candidates and the Clinton people are very concerned about that. In some of these states that are that they. They're leaning democratic ones they have targeted these battleground states. That this will cut in two and it pains in my past. Now Gary Johnson's comments about not knowing what a lot but was few weeks ago that have at least. It did not help and I think that's that's that has turned a lot of people also that concern has brought about what it was a couple of weeks ago and Joel Stein's. Comments and actions in the you know activities as this protesting that sort of thing I think is is calling into question some of her. Judgment as well and and people are are probably not it is keen on capturing about for her either. And so we'll just have to see. That fact that they were neither of them were invited to these debates but it was the first debate probably about the second day. We're third. Means that they're not going get much. Attention. Professor you know always have retrieved the time have be great today well thank you lot don't Robert Hogan that only true professor of political sought. Go back to its subject we talked about eleven clock. I was looking at Bloomberg article on the headline and serves Louisiana's sinking quotes is a 100. Billion dollar nightmare. Or big gore. The state gave pay you so we have to about the bribes and water and wondered you've runs. And I had two experts. In the litigation. The governor. And the governor is Jordan does say is joining and all the coastal parishes in lawsuit against oil companies. The force him to brave for what they put seem it's the percentage of damage that they didn't. Numbers look at it is a poor poor strong dense this is one of the most important for. Ports. To the country in the country. Is it's a typical pushed. And I mean he would he would is mega important for the super important news and everything else. Services 90%. Of deep former oil production. And Newport crucial look at this there's sure under proceeding by three beat every month. State wide 610. Miles of pipeline. Could be exposed over the next. Couple of decades. And this has supported the call ma. 80%. Of the private land. Hold the and southern Louisiana and I mean that lay and holding or private. The majority of that oil company. The biggest wallow in the news comical Phillips they have the largest private wetlands owner in this state. And they said at a combination of public private funding. We used to pay you for 77. Breast reduction projects. Enhancing. 170. 7000. Acres. Of their own web line that's what caught ma. Instead of putting didn't come back and groups that we should. In set of having to buy eat an industry that really we benefit of. A lot from all over the dike it. Would simply say to him your how it's this falling debt alone. Right now. We you're paying. To keep your hopes up. And we're gonna have to go in and outs the rest of the country. For fifty to 100 billion dollars. Two to restore. And keep from falling down own the rest of your property. In southern Louisiana. What do we simply say to them good luck. It's your property. And and let them spin the money. Is saying you. The wrong property. And I asked that question today. And I really didn't get a about an answer. I think it's a valid question. We keep fighting and fighting in begging and begging for money. We're overpaying blow and is shrewd or praying praying. Private land owners. We're paying for the restoration. Of their property. What are we simply check into does not mean about it. Nothing. Not appreciated. What's been done for us over the decades and just saying hey. We don't have did he draw a hundred billion dollars Google. In rebuilding. Your coastline. What do you think. In me you will think tank the drug bureau come in bright back. Rory scooters sexy should scroll sports players to stand during the playing of the and factional. And from. The scores are lodged goes oh look at that and impede the board saying that Susan mode selector and the most important election. And our nation's history in the big drive to get people to vote and register your that it Kurds who bill put Clinton. Our neutral. Screwed is an acts don't galway. Governor of the big 87 the AM while gold climbed three FM.