WWL>Topics>>Think Tank 1010am Why is it so hot

Think Tank 1010am Why is it so hot

Nov 1, 2016|

Why is it so hot, and what are the impacts?  We just finished the hottest October ever, and forecasters say it looks unusually warm the rest of the fall and into the winter.  This hours guest: Carl Arredondo - Chief Meteorologist at WWL-TV Alek Krautmann - Meteorologist with the National Weather Service New Orleans

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Angered more thing it's not Monday any mar hands but I like to call Tuesday just reminders of the progress we've made I'm Dave cone and for Garland Robinette. And the think tank on this first of November 2016. We got three. Great hours to think about this morning and into the afternoon here on WWL in the think tank. The first hour we're gonna talk about the fact that today is November 1. We just completed October and viewers sweat it out Almonte thing complaining about how warm and hot and muggy sticky nasty it was. Waiting for fall wondering where is fallen why can't we get us some fall. Well you're absolutely right that it was on usually warm in fact. Hot. October. Ever recorded. In New Orleans and in the Louisiana and talk about why that is what kind of impact it's having. And is there any cool weather. On the horizon. Coming up next hour today is the last data early vote we're gonna get secretary of state Tom should have voted join us. Talk to us about why we've seen record numbers of early voters and why are so many people go to the polls before Election Day. And we'll talk about why people aren't going to the polls if so many people vote early why are some people waiting until Election Day. What is it that makes them think you know now. I don't wanna vote I don't wanna take the convenience of voting the day I want at the time I want I'm going to wait until Election Day and fight the crowds then which. Presumably will be smaller than in the past but. Still pretty crowded and then happy birth. Days. To the saints today. Is the New Orleans Saints fiftieth birthday was this All Saints Day fifty years ago. But the NFL awarded. The franchise. That we now call. The New Orleans Saints will look back over the last fifty years to the voice of the saints Jim Henderson. And we'll look ahead to what is in the future and some of them habitable pivotal pivotal moments. In not only sports but New Orleans history. That the saints have been a crucial part. After we're doing here and the think tank this morning right now we want to welcome Demi WL TV chief. Meteorologist Carl or Redondo to the program happy November Karl. Do all right but. I'm tired of the record heat I'm tired and every day. Talking about well here's a record we got a chance to break it to them to the fact that we had to hottest act over ever the hottest Halloween ever. Wimbledon. Well I mean yeah we've we've had a streak of them dry weather but let's let's put into perspective a year ago October weird third way that if we just had some very wet months earlier in the year in and for the year were actually running a little bit above average as far as ranked Fargo sport. Armstrong international we're about seven plus inches above above average so. I mean we're in and learn a pattern right now and patterns do eventually change but with the onset of a La Nina coming for the winter. The outlook is still pull warmer than normal temperatures through the wintertime as well that's an average of the three months. But December January and February that doesn't mean that won't be any cold there. But when you average out to three months were expected to BO warmer than average is for the wintertime and that's. That's not an expected when we come to a La Nina been going on for our winter so unfortunately this streak may continue for a little bit longer now whether they're record highs. Remains to be seen but we are gonna see our temperatures probably a little bit above average as we go to the next you know 23 months. You talked about rainfall we have had very little of that October was ridiculously dry month in do you think that's one of the big factors on why we saw a record high average temperature for the month and sauce so many days where we had record high temperatures. Well if it's the pattern as well what we have upper level high on top of the that's usually drier pattern because the air sinking and so we have less clout. Less clout means fewer chances for rain so we are dealing with July than normal conditions and remember October both the BR drive month on record. So you know it's not a usual will be dried. But you know our averages jet gently yet we're and that's where we we were there as much. If to read and happy just below average for January that we should normally have about the reason. I'm October yet. Which normally at the rehab it is for the month of October and we were you know very dry but that's hard drive's Smart bomb wrecked. So we we had a essentially no rain and don't. We had yet officially at the airport point 05 and that the official now moves once airport's point there but that's 51 hundreds of an inch of rain Brian that tiger months. Bit dry now we get three October's work we get no rain history so so we did better than that it was one with political force that we just squeaked. You know hinted at that spot therefore on the tries to October's but it's the pattern there off you know we go in cycles and let her know. Lot of people talk about global warming and all that but let me give you this stat here. Since this is the hottest October on record. The second hottest with 2004. But before that the hottest October's ward 1947. And 49 to a took another 6070 years were the top those. To our hottest October's back in 47 and 49 so I guess is they what they go to the pattern. And we will see some colder than normal conditions you know as we go to the next step. Next year I'm sure we will we don't stay in this kind of pattern we're not gonna increasingly. You know get warmer and warmer and warmer never cooled down so it is big government patterns and the pattern that we were into the summer. Which job brought one of the hottest Summers on record I think I've met in the on the air we have the second hottest June. The hottest July on record the second hottest August the hottest September in the hot it's October. So we've we've had a stretch there and make it can be a little bit longer before we see that pattern break but you know with the slot media. And again these are all just outlooks but normally when we know we have a La Nina. We tend to have warmer and drier conditions and and the outlook is for much of the country to have warmer and drier conditions for the winter. How warm more we in October compared to our average high how much warmer was this hot it's October ever we just completed. Compared to what we normally expect an October. We were running hectic world. We should be up let me look at the numbers again and I don't follow this. Yeah that's. That. You know these meteorologist votes in Romney and ours and that's dance and then number you can't be bad with numbers I thought there. As I can't miss number in my life by to drop I drop down I think we're running like. To read four degrees above average for for October. I can't find it interesting that you mention that you if you go back to the 1940s. You find similar. Leave warm October's. You mention all the other months that have been the hottest ever this year and I don't wanna get too political about this but you are meteorologist you are scientists you study. These things but. And some people fear now after they've heard so much about climate change global warming whatever you wanna call it the yet we just solving. We you know all of these months this year that was the hottest the second hottest ever. That we are just gonna continue to get hotter and hotter and hotter every year. You're saying no this is cyclical because we were just this cot back in the 1940s and we clearly in the Arabic chlorofluorocarbons. In the other. Situations that are contributing to the greenhouse effect back that. Right what I mean I do believe that climate is changing we are seeing warmer conditions that we think about it now nowadays in the past 1520 years. Cities are larger we have less green space. You're concrete he felt that the land most of our reporting stations are in major metropolitan cities are not out of the country. So we are seeing warmer temperatures that the circuit dew tour expansion in the population growth and growth of buildings in cities all across our area we know. Cities in concrete absorbs heat more than. Grass and trees and country country areas were a lot of reporting stations aren't at their major metropolitan airport so we DNC. A change in our. Lower levels in the atmosphere the upper level may not be changing market and some research at the upper atmosphere it's been warning us that as the lower level. But again I do believe we. 2000 by 2006 the outrageous Turkey's. He's in we've been having. Global warming are being warned more hurricanes more more. It was stray too we haven't had major land all the major hurricanes or hurricanes for a stretch so what happened to those global warming. You know alarmist that we're saying we're gonna keep getting more more hurricanes won more and more coming attitude because of all five note next. Well we haven't seen that so again it's patterns to go in cycles and I believe the atmosphere it'll balance balance itself out. Eventually and we'll see you know back to a mile to try and colder train but yeah we we are seeing a change in our environment absolutely. Is it to the fact that we're gonna see that the day after tomorrow happened. You know not any time in the second happen if if that ever done but we are seeing changes in our climate absolutely. But I do believe also that our atmosphere does go to recycles as well. Or talk only WW LTV chief meteorologist parlor and I know folks it is in just completed the hottest October ever recorded. In New Orleans and we come back I'm gonna ask Carl. Was at the hottest October ever across the United States and what about globally or was it just here. Is everyone sweat it out like we are at least compared to their normal high temperatures. We'll see if it was just New Orleans are everywhere else ringgit Karl back after this on WW I got a question. For chief meteorologist parlor down a caller right now at 504260187. Our big 870 pretty jaguar opinion poll do you prefer hot or cold. A surprise of the votes right down the middle 50% are saying I had 50% say call the chief meteorologist to Debbie WL TV parlor down and gas. And Karl I just presume that since so many of our listeners live right here in New Orleans that. It was a hot because they've chosen to live in what we have is a sub tropical climate don't get too cold too often do it. And we'll get back to chief meteorologist parlor down knowing just a moment here on WWL. He's joining us talk about the fact that we had the hottest. October. Ever on record in the meantime colts thanks for Colin you're on WWL what's on your mind. I was one caller thought pollution might have anything to do it. There are temperatures and knock Trevor or in the past year. You jargon about emissions from vehicles you're talking about emissions from chemical plants all that stuff that we hear so much about in the debate over climate change and global warming. Yeah let's start what he used the money and is day to thank you know what do you think call. Believe it guys increasingly dark turn from wrong. We minority campers there before before I'd buy it some of the stuff they had to say yours and harassment. All right well we will last Karl that in just a moment we have lost him for the time being will get back with collars on them. And ask him your question call in just a moment we appreciate your calling in the meantime he can log on to WWL dot com and vote in our big 870. Ready jaguar opinion Paul. Do you prefer hot. Or coal. I negates what channel left that a little open ended I meant specifically the weather. And hopefully people are response things you. Which their answer about the weather because I guess it could be just about anything but hey. It is what it is do you prefer hotter called just shifted a little bit 53%. Say now they prefer it. Hot only 47%. Say they preferred coal. And I that is more. In line with what what I would expect because. That we don't get real winters here. Think we get snow and average about once every twenty years. At a couple ice storms in the last few years. And that's unusual as well but. If you live here you gotta like it otherwise your grumbling and complaining and moaning and whining all the time because. It does not get cold here now Miami native of Chicago. And I gotta tell you. I was just on some news today I will never. Move back because of the winters. I haven't lived in Chicago in almost thirty years. And I've been in New Orleans for twenty years. And I could not imagine. I could visit. I can go up north I can do some snow skiing IQ and go right snowmobile I can do that kind of thing take the kids sledding and enjoy it. But I can never go back and live through those winters. Ever again. Dealing with snow blowers and shovel. And things like that so. You know I got to tell you better like it hot out there because. You know I get mechanical that we see in the northern half of the nation the same time. I don't like it well and we've got a 1020510. Heat index. That's the kind of thing can't stand. Stand Demi WL chief meteorologist Carla Redondo Kohl called a moment ago on one to know what you thought about all the rhetoric about emissions from vehicles plants and other pollution and how they may be impacting our climate. Well I I think they are mean that either no doubt that. The more loot we put in the atmosphere the more we see them back to it yet though. I do believe that we should start doing more of oh you know putting let of that pollutants in the atmosphere I think it does. You know the population has grown we use automobile a lot more a lot more chemical plant and everything I do believe that it two media outlet here and there are that should change the green out suspect also. But again it is not primarily our. All as well I mean. Again that meant to thwart think we don't recycled bit what we would India are certainly doesn't help you know beechy that we we've seen in the past you know ten to two years. We are talking about the fact that this was the hottest October ever in the Louisiana you mentioned that way it's three other months that it was the hottest ever so far this year and the restroom was the second hottest. Is this is this a Louisiana and north New Orleans phenomenon are we seeing this across the country. The Dalai it's a lot of yet south India unit part of the nation under thought we this morning and Jack and two below. Jonesboro Arkansas they all had their warm sport. You know up to third warmest October on record on many late yesterday a record high and there there are Halloween ever so it's not just a lead and it it it's a lot of the each topic. Even that far you know in mid Atlantic region. I got to imagine that awesome crude cost him you had on last night you wish it was a little cooler for Kyle. A I don't get that that date every time that the temperatures cold let on when it's warm. Through much on yeah if you I'm. The bulk yellowing guy estimates do not anywhere the not so bulky Mardi Gras constant miniscule hole. Well what about the start to hear so John a master control particularly like your kiss ass. Yeah that would that would mean cute when a market and there were garbage is popular or more a long time that. You know finally we got there but it was to breed do. Order Iowa we're gonna let you go rock and roll all night and party every day and are we got to get to the news thanks for joining us Carl we appreciate it. RW WL TV chief meteorologist Carl or downer here on WWL AMF famine dot com coming up next half hour we're gonna check in with the National Weather Service and your calls at 2601870. Text messages at 87878. As you know you're voting in our big 870 pretty jaguar opinion poll after we just completed the hottest October ever. And have seen a strength of the hottest or second hottest month ever do you prefer hot. Or coal. 10:35. Good morning I'm gave no one. The think tank for a beloved Garland Robinette on this Tuesday. November 1 2016. All Saints Day and happy birthday to the New Orleans Saints today. The fiftieth birthday of the saint. We'll be talking about that with the voice of the saints him Anderson coming up in the twelve. Hour right now we welcome to our show. Alec cry out men in meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in New Orleans good morning now like now yeah. Oh. Welcome to November. Can you provide critical and no it doesn't as a as they can you please tell me that November is gonna feel more like ball and to overdo it because that was what the hottest October ever recorded here in new oil. That's right not this week I'll Wear and or another warm week for about the next seven days are temperatures right now feel more like mid to late September. Why is that what what is happening that is causing us to have after it was we just had a hot a sect over ever. We've had several other monsters here that's where the hottest ever. Seeing temperatures we haven't seen since what the 1940s. We've had a very large impersonal high pressure over the central Gulf Coast and much of the the south late this summer and the fall and so that's led to persistent dry conditions. Since those had a range of course and August. So the high pressure moves and it just won't budge and that means we get hot hot and more hot compared to normal how much warmer have we bin. For hospice of neglect over and for the year here in New Orleans then we would normally expect to. Our 4 October weird several degrees on average above normal and really for the past few months we've been ready hides well. I'm looking now. Summary schemes for our region. The start of fall and so our ecological fall in September and October. And both sides are running in and top five. Warmest on record in areas like Portland flight held at rouge Lafayette Lake Charles are all seen their top five. Warm fall so far on record. And you're saying this first week of November doesn't bring us any relief. From the intensity we get Greg Moore record daily records this week. Couple days I would like potential record breakers slightly cooler temperatures this weekend but really long term we have to go all the way out a lot meeting next. Thursday for the next significant chance for a. OK so maybe we get rain on Thursday after wise how much rain did we have an act over for the entire month at New Orleans. New Orleans only 500 but it. That would fifth try it on record two years though we saw we get your rainfall that was in 1978 and 1952. Minute Europe. As we got a chance this first week of November of breaking the rainfall for all of October and then Thursday. We neck out next now this coming Thursday note note that will. I proceeded with today's cues it was a vote on ten days from. Exactly right that we could get some cooler weather before that right we are gonna get at least equaled and a little bit later this week a little bit. Yet it's looking like we'll still have daytime temperatures in the low eighties. But of course lately we've been operated. Apart near ninety's just about every day and that's been in record territory we're talking with National Weather Service meteorologist Alec crowd meant when we come back. I wanna get your take on why we're seeing this stretch of hot hot weather other than the fact that we have high pressure over us. Is this a point where we're certainly get hotter and hotter pattern we can expect more. Hot weather just to keep continuing. As if for the foreseeable future. Or earlier this kind of cyclical up and down pattern where SE would. Outcrop and things from the National Weather Service about that after this and take your calls at 5042601870. You can text us today at 7870. Also see after this timeout. How you're voting in a big 870 pretty jaguar opinion poll do you prefer hot. Or cold. 10:46 on your Tuesday morning good morning. Gave noted for Garland Robinette we're talking about. When other. And how crazy creek and hot it's been. Not only in October but really all year Alec crowd man is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office. For New Orleans and is joining us this half hour now like now we are talking about how October was so darn hot. And how we've seen a string of months this year that were either of the hottest the second hottest ever. Is this cyclical is this something that makes you shake your head and go why is this happening or do you think you know the car and opposite is this global warming and climate changes as something. Well another acted and it contributed the warm temperatures this year is the exceptional warm Gulf of Mexico. Since this summer and into the fall. The water. Temperature at the circle slaughter of Mexico have also been running. Just about the hottest on record over the whole I'm here. And so this is. Overall to warm year in the background there is the overall trend of global warming. Impact it will Louisiana. Is minor compared to northern parts of the country the warming the across northern states. Statement much more significant than what we need to hear. So their average high temperatures are high yours and Rory are seeing a bigger departure from. Normal then ours are down here's Richardson. Yes that's correct what we've obviously had a warm summer in the warm fall here. But our our or Raleigh you do your change is a pretty notable. OK so. We haven't seen temperatures quite this high in the go back to well the 1940s. So is this humans creating this condition or is this something that the globe just kind of goes through these cyclical changes. I don't wanna get political with you were rescued you know but as a meteorologist as a scientist who studies the weather. Are we just gonna keep getting warmer and warmer and warmer are we gonna see these cyclical ups and downs. So any individual a year or any individual season is still dominated by. Dated game whether they're adult. And so we can have our our what is the old days just like we can have a one month and cold months we have adequate food and stretched a warm weather this summer and fall. That he to a stronger than usual high pressures that lead the organ W. And so it's yours is mainly. Attributed to. The warm summer. But you know later this winter I'll work act in the dry in the warm conditions to. Put it on paper that to the winner but we will be cold products and whistles he periods where. We'll be ground work. When is the next cold front coming. Up again yet we mentioned that it will and long term but maybe we get rain and cold front next. Okay and this weekend will cool off but not a real cold front by any means just enough to take the edge off of these high temperatures. Yeah we'll look back down that maybe in the low eighties that operate. Died at his high pressure going anywhere any time sooner we expecting another few months where we seat. Near record record highs every day and maybe more record time months. It looks like we'll do it. Our media sort of breaks from the record highs. But high pressure is expected to practice Tom works the developing drought conditions it's only a moderate drought and southeast Louisiana for the door in Mississippi. In Alabama some of those areas and keep their drive. Sixty days on record. And so to dial mr. out in the now that the story going into the want to. What other impacts is this record heat having on us whether agricultural Lee or other. Impacts that now folks may be experiencing as a result of it being so dry and so unusually warm. Penetrated to areas that are relevant to Mike Allen a work in meter algae and one is that these warmer temperatures. In. On unseasonably high evaporation rates and so the war. Temperatures helped add toward trying to end the drought conditions. And also it is Chris. We will start to be an increased threat for a brush fires and wildfires. Several counties to our door in the Mississippi. Already at a bar bands for example it's not quite as bad in Louisiana and south Louisiana but it's not starting to get there. And I guess allergy sufferers can't be love in this and folks who don't like mosquitoes either because when it gets nice and cold. Those bacteria those allergens in those mosquitoes and either go dormant or die and we're not seeing temperatures nearly called not for any of that right now are. No not nearly all the man I. All right well I it is too early for the long term forecast we yelled do look out and you do expect it warmer than normal winter as we make our way through the fallen into the winter and into the new year it. Yep that's right through. Overall November December and January it looked like odds are steeper above average temperatures. In imports sleep dry conditions are expected to assist little. I'd Alec crowd meant anything else you wanna share their listeners here on Debbie WL as we look at a string of record heat. And the hottest October ever recorded in New Orleans just in the books. It really has been into you know meeting yesterday how he was this hot it's how we go on record for almost all of our observations sites in the area. In the last. And we had a quarter inch of rain in New Orleans was September 24. You guys and all the kids that were out trick or treating couldn't keep their masks on because the sweat was on a death on their faces. From just wearing a small mask and you couldn't do any kind of big bulky Halloween cast him his just too darn hot. Yeah you are not pan out we appreciate your joining us from the National Weather Service. And we look forward to checking in with yen as we watch this unfold and see if maybe just maybe there's some cooler weather in the future ever great debt. You get. Alec lemon at the National Weather Service here in New Orleans every it's every ready jaguar opinion poll do you burn hotter cold. We'll see how your final tally the votes are coming up right after this on WWL. So a big gates avenue ready jaguar opinion poll is do you prefer hot. Or coal and buy it's I intended to mean the weather event. I don't know people could be perceiving that he would take one if they're going to WWL dot com but what do you prefer hot or called. 64%. Of you say you prefer hot. 36%. Say you prefer it coldly urine locked because we have more on usually. Hot weather. On tap as we make our way to November after the hottest October ever. At 51 hundreds of an inch of rain in government in one of the driest ever to. Now you wanna know what the weather's going to be like or when there's severe weather or rain may actually becoming I got to do is text the word. Whether to 87870. And we will send you WW well weather alert will send you daily forecast. And anytime there is severe weather will warn you about that too. Again just text the word whether date 7870. For those text message alerts remember message and data rates may applies to when did Texas and 7870. We're talking about the weather and it we have to is as we have two seasons here summer. In February. And I think you're probably right that by and large that's you know that. February well might if you cold days. In I've lived here for twenty years now I've only seen it snow once in new war violence it's happened twice in the twenty years I've lived here about one of the times that was. Actually up in central Louisiana when it was snowing in New Orleans and it wasn't snowing mayors now the last twenty years it's snowed twice yours now. You better prefer not here because that's what you get this is the sub tropical climate. Southeast Louisiana he be able to assassinate 7870 say. They prefer it hot but they like some in between whether or the fall and the spring while. Or could not get. Seasons lately. Is not change and a whole lot but eight years the good news. Dumb apart near ninety's for most of October at least it wasn't partner hundred.