WWL>Topics>>11/8 9pm Decision 2016

11/8 9pm Decision 2016

Nov 9, 2016|

Garland Robinette & DECISION 2016... up-to-the-minute results from CBS…and expert analysis from campaigns & elections specialist at U-L-Lafayette, Dr. Ryan Teten…demographer Elliot Stonecipher …and LSU political analyst Dr. Martin Johnson.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Think we're all citizens can be exciting and I'm sure we'd thought it was gonna be this excited. Gentlemen for the U people bird Jordan is for the people. Driving through Louisiana and Florida and Alabama and Georgia and pick and a and so Litsch to La Rica. Doctor tin and more important we've seen so. Well and the states that are supposed to be blue on have gone blue in the states that are supposed to be read it largely gone red. You know though even some of those that they put in the camp that the most of us out wouldn't be closely Georgia. I'm are really. But it's as battleground states or watching and a lot of us has said that if he doesn't get Florida and North Carolina than he's dead in the water. And both of those right now have him with the lead. So this this becomes the two to watch to see if he's gaining momentum. Doctor. The list of states that are too close to calls growing and and you know we're just not giving closure. On the blues' early. Early. Poll closing states like Florida North Carolina that I think we had hoped. Maybe would have been called would've would've would've not been as close and we could have maybe seen some clarity in what's gonna happen but in terms of what has been called. Donald Trump has believed in him Electoral College votes at this point and we're just waiting on some of those battlegrounds to it's their resolve them and give us some clarity about who's gonna get the 270. I think we add context then two hours and ten minutes after the polls closed generally speaking that would be 7 o'clock our time. We now have. Other external markers that we're looking at as people start considering the possibility that Donald Trump could be priced. Things like that that now being Dow futures down 500 points things like senator mansion from. West Virginia saying that he's willing to change parties he's a Democrat. Said he would change parties if you need to if Donald Trump has elected CBS is running with a story that says that. The African American vote for Hillary Clinton. Was 87%. Now it could easily have been 95. I don't remember a democratic candidate for president. Getting 87% of the black. So there are things EN and Hispanic turnout was good African American turnout was good that's not it. This is about people voting against something on and off their voting for Donald Trump or not but their voting again something. Will it hanging and we don't know but that's where we are with two hours and ten minutes after the polls close. And unity if that's not the lewd Tina. If it's not the blacks. If it's not a large segment of women. Is is this driven by a white man could be. I mean I think I think kind of apropos to what Eliot saying. And it's probably more than than white men if you know African Americans are not breaking him and in quite the way. They have been in previous elections for the Democratic Party no I was looking at some numbers for those other candidates which Gary Johnson's McNeil Angel science and that might be a part of what's coming and Hillary Clinton's. You know base in that in the NF. Don't wanna get in regards Dave corn boom would that mean. Large segment of the black population. State home. Or voted for truck. Not I don't think it's large segments I don't think we're talking about large and I think I think turnout was robust I think turnout among African Americans Latinos Asian Americans robust. But they're just not bringing in England whose only 7%. And and ride right so so at the margin you get enough of those. Average Americans voting for. Somebody who isn't Hillary Clinton whether that's trump or not. It it benefits track. Dave Cohen lenders. We're up to 99% of the votes counted in Florida and trump still has a one and a half percentage point lead now it's still too close to call. But he has maintained this lead over the last hour and again 99% of the votes cast he has a 135000. Vote. Margin of lead over Hillary Clinton right now in Florida in North Carolina his lead is up to three and a half percent. With 83% of those votes counted in Ohio he's got an 11%. Lead so. Strap in and get ready to ride this one that's going to be a long one. It in Florida beat the blue sections Howard county that kind of thing Broward County. Or or they still how. They've said. But. Only 1% still may be one or two precincts out but that but very very little if itself from what we saw earlier. So it was looking a lows urban counties which earlier were only about ninety to 93% and a lot of those are a 100% in Miami Davis still. Only 99% and that's that's money for 99% and those that have. The votes but Hillary Clinton would need to come from behind here and my guess is not. We might be seeing Florida called pretty soon. And I think you go back to your other point to this is no matter who wins is gonna show a clear division. Among their bases of support. Now a time when we look at the African American vote especially when you're dealing with black men you know exit polls are suggesting that turned out to the tune of 80%. I'm which is low for what Hillary Clinton needed but also there were 12% who voted for Donald Trump of that group. And then when you look at white men in white went my men's 60%. Latinos on the other side fur. Hillary Clinton you know nearly 70% of black women for Hillary Clinton 93%. So you know if you're putting him in columns you can go okay trump one. The white vote here whites eighteen through 2930 through 34456465. And older. And then Latinos. Wholly in the Clinton camp blacks and African American voters wholly in the Clinton camps there's. Of all ages so there's a very clear divide at least in terms of the exit polling. In the racial demographic and who they're voting for. Overwhelming. But as of bruises say about colds in the modeling. You and I'm just add this I'm not a big Nate Silver fade and it makes over this after 530. Yes. This afternoon he said that he had gathered up all of the polling and it looked at him lie. The polling. Across the board is about 3%. Fall and interestingly enough. That's about where this stands instead of Hillary Clinton being 3% or so up. This is where where. And this is WWL news director Dave Cohen. CBS now officially says Florida is edging forward Donald Trump with 99% of the votes then he has a one point 5% of the vote lead. And he would need Florida. To seek year the White House meanwhile in Louisiana we now have 45%. Of the votes counted trump out to a massive lead with more than 60% of those votes. He wins in Louisiana. Now here in Louisiana the race for US senate is very interesting with again 45% of the votes cast John Kennedy will make the run up. But Charles was standing. And buster Campbell are fighting it out to see who will face him in that runoff currently Campbell has 16% of the vote to boost any 15%. Foster Campbell has about a 9000. Vote lead I checked that now it's up to an 111000. Vote lead. Over Charles to stand. CBS news special report election 2016. CBS news exit polling puts the presidential election too close to call right now latest projections Montana and Missouri going to trump Nevada and Utah toss ups outcomes still unknown in Florida though the edge does go to trump there. CBS news drug from elections Anthony's cell want to. When we look at these counties and we say how much of the voters and will. To keep coming at. Because turnout is so high so what happens is in our models were waiting to see a 100% gain and put that bar keeps getting higher and higher because more more votes keep coming and. Just in now Hillary Clinton will get New Mexico CBS news political director John editors and watching the exit polling. There was a long stretch where Donald Trump was seen as the more honest and trustworthy candidate in the exit poll tonight when asked that question. 37%. Said it Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy 32% said Donald Trump was. So she has at least according exit polls at this moment flipped what was the case for much of this campaign CBS's Steve Dorsey is looking at races in the House of Representatives Republicans are projected to keep control of the house. Democrats would need to win thirty seats to regain control of their expected to fall far short of that. Who over the doesn't mean house speaker Paul Ryan has a lock on another term leading congress some members concerned he won't be able to get the 218 votes. Needed for reelection to house speaker Dow futures right now down nearly 500 points CBS news special report I'm Jim Taylor. Our regular goods. Big cooling. We've just got a new update now we're up to 52% of the votes reported in Louisiana. And while John Kennedy still maintains a healthy lead in will make the run off. Charles Bruce Danny has now. Taken a 5000 vote lead over Foster Campbell in the race to face John Kennedy so it's a boost any Campbell battle. As we wait to see who makes the senate run off ground. In these parts of the state Al that would. Faber boots on the Europe Campbell that data we have to look even more closely compares is right now they're trickling in so that's tough out secretary states get its hands full of. All right to have a lot of Louisiana was not in yet so I mean this is it is interesting to watch this to to to see I think I think a lot of us model walked in the room tonight tonight thinking. That this was going to be a Campbell likely Kennedy Ron often says deceived us this real tight race for number two developing. Is is an interest in them. Lot to lots of surprises. Across the board. Make sure wonder bull Bob polled were looking Norton but modeling what mathematics. You know the industry is is. You know the set by all of these problems and Uga Uga folks the won't answer there landline anymore because they got caller right the we've we've seen a lot of pollsters shifting to strategies of using. Landline only samples because they can use the news landline only samples to to use automated polling and things like that you can't you can't call self. With a computer you have to have a human dialer testicles soften and have a really full. Accurate sample you've got to have a very sizable cellphone and component of that sampled so it's just giving. Harder and harder and harder to pull and I mean polling has. Ultimately the best we have in in terms of of learning the will of the people before we have an election but it's giving. Fuzzier and fuzzier and fuzzier and and then you know and I'm talking about these these these models and these kind of pull aggregation web sites like. Neitzel were 530 a there there are several others you know across occur across the Internet and and and there ultimately. Only as good as that underlying data they have access to. Talked to live by brute June. That this could be one of the surprises I guess that we're watching very very closely. I'm being that you know Tim Kaine is her Hillary Clinton's vice presidential candidate nominee. He should have this handily. But right now with eighty some percent then you're looking at Clinton not being up too much from a 50000 votes of that. And it's gone that way it's been that tight the entire time and you know although it's early. We're seeing this kind of strange early knows where it's extraordinarily close not only there but in Wisconsin and Michigan too so the states that. A lot of people expected the numbers to come in even earliest kind of blow outs. Are coming in early either very very tightly or for Donald Trump being in the lead and I can flip on accounting. But eight you know that's what's making this a very very interest in right now doctored. Where you're talking about video we've we've we've touched on the several times this evening already. That that sense of of anger or or whatever it is out of out of the population and and who are just talking. Off fare a little bit about bricks and so this this vote that the day of the UK had. Two separate itself from the European Union. Which reflects the same kind of you know kind of a comparable. Set of concerns. A desired. I'll pull away from the world. Be more protectionist in terms of their economy. Suspicious. Of of a a I'm a more opens at a borders suspicion of refugees and and those kinds of things. You know that was a UK electorate that was very close to the edge and a lot of people were surprised to see. That the bricks that vote the vote to pull pull out of the the the European Union. Past and you know and so regardless of what happens tonight. With a presidential election I think one thing we can see is that there is this this palpable through line of of of a set a similar concerns mount for protection. Suspicion. Of immigration and and and and a set of concerns like that but I think the next president if that is whether that's Donald Trump or not is gonna have to be ten. Yeah and noticed that this week I'm sure to Reuters story so that. Some of the folks in charge of the process of implementing. Rex for the UK. Or bragging about the fact that they figure they can slow it down five years. It's exactly that stuff right there. That this is about. Rex it was all about we do not want our government doing anymore this crazy stuff they're doing globalism particularly. No borders. Where's the real England. So they really do go out there and just shocked the heck out of everybody and they get a DN only to start hearing. It's really. I'm pledge I'll have fun voting to hell with. We're gonna undo this. CBS news special report election 2060. CBS news now estimates that Hillary Clinton will win Virginia and Donald Trump is likely to win Ohio. Political or John Dickerson says trump has an edge in Florida Georgia and in Iowa Iowa is state that Barack Obama carried twice is one of those states where it's gotten. An older population even in Florida. It's at a highly blue collar or a non college educated and and the big white population so that the Clinton people have thought Iowa gone. CBS news as a major opponent Senator John McCain will be reelected and Arizona. The stock market doesn't like this uncertainty Dow futures are down more than 500 points with CBS news business analyst Jill Schlesinger says don't panic. As people get really nervous what the key right now when you start to say almighty god it now looks can't please don't put any orders into buy yourself anything in your account. Really wanna remind people that. These are volatile times things are gonna swing very dramatically perhaps for the next few days. BS news special report on to Whitney our doctor run into it and the affiliates owned five per doc Moore and Johnson gentlemen. After about Florida again very very very close evict you period. We even have to go to pro or Clinton and it's that close could we could we haven't contestant. I think it's automatically contested I think the level as one and a half 42%. I do think however. That there are different rules about whether or not the recount. Is just a recount or what you have to open all the provisional ballots that senator setters so bad that state the set specific. And I don't know what that is in the instance. Jim. Well I mean you know I think I think the boom the bigger question might be even if there's a Florida recount. Is that where the election hangs in the balance and we we we still have Al. A lot of states bats. You know the can be determinant of and if we find ourselves one of you know an Electoral College victory. For Hillary Clinton that you know that include states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Virginia that have been you know either you know. Nowhere near being called yet. In. If if if Florida matters. You know them that recount becomes vitally important and we we we see it go into the as we. And and Clinton have Stu Bloomberg Jason Roddick I mean look they they've called called her OK but then it's Pennsylvania and it looks like she's gonna win it. Then that's another must win for her in the scenario where she's where she appears to be losing Florida she's she's got to win but and I've got a scenario free gentlemen here thanks. Now I've been doing the math over here and taking a look at his road to seven. And if we include Florida and then we include Georgia and then we include North Carolina. And then we include Iowa which he had the lead and at most recent book and then you throw in kind of the contested western states of Nevada. Utah Arizona and Colorado so he's got to run the table there. And New Hampshire which at this point you know that little force sitting way out there if you do that. He gets to exactly 270. Without which it was constant or Michigan that you aren't under him taxes. Yes yes texas' already been locked in so this is all the states that are still up in the air he would half to basically run the table. On the on the West Coast states that are in this process if she takes both Wisconsin Michigan and if you capture even when he he possibly can. He possibly could but if you capture even one of Wisconsin or Michigan. Suddenly Hillary's look at the map and going I need to completely re look at mine. My totals here and see if I'm the one now that is getting close to 27. But it it it's a case that we've said ever sense that the beginning of this race that he's gonna have to win out and that wind starts with North Carolina and Florida and we put him in his camp. The Virginia it was not expected so that's not so much of a shock Ohio it was suspect it's not so much of a shock. But when you get to the ones were watching Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania. If she takes all three it's still doesn't mean that they election that he can't get to 278 is if he takes all those on the West Coast again. Doctor and two. Yeah I mean you know he he he does have to run the table. If she holds on to the places that we've expected her to win. He's proven very resilient and is certainly winning a lot of these contests tonight that I'm not sure we necessarily expect the body would or make it close at least certainly make him close and MM that's coming of Michael appointment I was making a little while ago if if if Hillary Clinton does pull the sodomy and she's done it here this. This this is a message. Election either way there are a lot of people out there that are that are expressing this this frustration on the she's she's gonna have to. Figure out how to deal with a she does end up speaking about and one of the sinner. Only. Now think the Dow futures are down 630. So I I again am stuck on this whole issue of all right. Let's say it does it ends up to 72 to sixty de trop. And the Republicans have of 52. Maybe even 53 members of the Sen. How fast. Could Donald from reassure the country. That under that circumstance Republicans control both houses of congress. He's president. I mean how much damage is done. How long does that take. Or is it better off as everybody already thinking at they see these cans of indicators are they thinking shoot. Let's just stick with a Republican congress and hope Hillary Clinton. Peaks and out but get the message that your talking about see that's the key. We combine don't drop in same might be better paid and get this always blame it on Hillary Clinton. But calls are in seriousness. Gets the best cover and she decides to come out fighting and being ugly and nasty. That's a loser too. He didn't call and you got your numbers Colorado goes to Hillary Clinton's of that brings hurt totally 131. Electoral votes trauma. Getting Ohio most recently brings him to 168. We know Lama needs to seven. 4%. With 86% of those votes counted and in Florida. His lead is a 136000. Votes at one point 5% with 99 point 3% of the votes counted by the way back here in Louisiana they've counted 78% of the votes. And John Kennedy again will make the runoff for US senate. But it's still not clear who it's going to be against Foster Campbell has surged. Picking up another 6000 votes in the last ten minutes he is now within 3000 votes of Charles Moose Danny's so. Still too close to call we'll be Campbell a boost any facing Kennedy. Not. Until he and and so you shaken you're well that that the kind of messed with my numbers thereby am taking Colorado out of the mix. Amid if you remove those nine electoral votes. It's you're as Donald Trump you're gonna be hard pressed to get to seventy Ramirez said you have because that was that was basically be given him everything act of possibly give him. To get to that 270 mark and we take that away. And you know that's nine and we include Alaska for three were still down six. Suddenly it makes. Wisconsin and Michigan look very very important. I mean it's just it becomes a nearly impossible road. Numerically. With Colorado and those nine electoral votes shifting over Hillary Clinton on that and. In contingent on Wisconsin and mission yet we get the supplies so. We go surprise out of Wisconsin or Michigan that changes the game just act again we're guessing and back again him yet. Alex's. During now I'm just got at least one good report on is that the phenomenon. In Ohio was organized labor. That's that's huge. Not terribly surprising in Ohio and that's the point here if it happens in Michigan. This is over. And it's interesting and NC businesses over a source data I have a Michigan. And that's what everybody else I think is gonna end up. Tracing wryly as the union vote and and that makes it not about individuals states that explains several of the things that have happened. And generally speaking of the broader media is already recognizing and focusing on that fact. Some unions Michigan. Is that it all and what's that it's that protection assumption it is and what what is going on. What's going on with the American jobs away as we see. As we see these kind of that's little older economy. Manufacturing and other other kinds of of of jobs go overseas and this has been a big part of Trump's massive. You know seeing the labor movement express that frustration it is not a surprise seeing them vote against the Democrat is. And see if Virginians. That explains why it's not Democrat as demographically. Exportable. Unions are all of the above. It's far broader if it's something happening among unions. It will not be black or white as usually is it will not be Latino we will not be gender. I mean that can be anybody and everybody that's what unions are all about if that's true by the way he wins Nevada. And I think that you tried to see them offset some of those things in dealing with Pennsylvania. I'm in a Nevada as well in speaking of their approach on unions but especially when you're looking at industry in Michigan and Wisconsin you know their camp. Basically suggested especially from eloquence perspective that it's gonna take new education and a retraining of the workforce and trump took the opposite approach and said bring in the jobs back. Those jobs you lost in the jobs you know I don't work I'm gonna make them come back to you and so I think that that would give him a huge edge with the union Bebo. While wanna on augment Boone Nevada's a little different because that that slow it SAI yeah that there is Denver he's and as a bullet that's a physical. You know that's about the hospitality industry it is Kasinga yeah so those so the real question is does does the sort of manufacturing type labor send the message through. Service industry. Or does have the service industry because of his casino background I mean I don't know on knows your point is valid are really should have been say. That we're talking I'm talking about Teamsters AFL CIO SE IU and and the body is different yeah. So and so where that dog we've only got a minute to ensure Britain should. It's well it's definitely expected at this point yeah. It is definitely candidate if it's the team pictures you'll move the labor unions that deliberative Ohio the folks that I'm checking in with think it's done. For not for her in mission she can't win mission. Well interest will say okay. Dave Gordon. Got a quick boom to him for a Foster Campbell's now moved with in 1000. Votes of Charles who stand to make the run off with John Kennedy. It's getting tight in fact now. It's down to 900 votes that the gap. CBS news special report election 2016. The next president of the United States still unknown. Election outcome too close to call but CBS news is projecting a Donald Trump win in Ohio Hillary Clinton wins in Virginia. Too close to call in battleground states Florida North Carolina Michigan Wisconsin. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire some analysis of those so far from CBS news retro politics John Dickerson. One thing I think we can. Concluded basically here is at the beginning of the night there was a big question did Donald Trump's vision of the electorate. His which whizzing contrast to many many Republicans pitches that he could. Do well by appealing to the electorate on his terms. That's been ratified he did well by appealing on his terms he may or may not be president but in terms of that theory of the case. He has done well enough tonight to prove that he is he was right about that. CBS used now projects Hillary Clinton wins in Colorado saw the most nervous observers of the election process our investors. Dow Jones futures down over 600 points CBS news business analyst chills listen. This is really not an anything except for anxiety. And as soon as we started to see that Florida was tightening and know that none of these swing states were holding Hillary Clinton's favor all the sudden. The conventional wisdom on Wall Street started to shift and that's what we're seeing right now. I CBS estimates the election outcome in nineteen states right now is unknown. CBS news special report I'm Jim Taylor and we have breaking news this just in the Associated Press is now officially called Florida for Donald Trott. AP says Donald Trump wins Florida Arlen. Negative. And and does talk about New York Times and it is predicting but. 90% change and yet race. Now they have the chance of trump winning the presidency at nine before percent to given the situation that they are seeing with Clinton. Right now the popular vote is that she would win it with point 1% that she would be up by a percentage but and he would finish according to what they have right now. With around 295. Electoral votes that's what they're estimated so they have to be looking. At Michigan and Wisconsin they actually have to because a map cannot get there any other way. And and you think you've gotten and moved says she's due lose. Maybe some emails from WikiLeaks. I had that these are good numbers we have seen for weekend everybody on this I made that Eliezer sources for example mind these are sources that said real if you paid attention you would have known when the clintons changed the venue last night to get rid of their big celebration. Fireworks that senator senator siren that's when I need. I mean. Then I've been in many many campaigns in the way you know those things are always uncomfortable for people here. You know and their 75%. Likely happen one out of four of them don't but those of the people who are living and breathing it. And I know reasons they didn't get labor for example. Because that's very expensive they didn't get it in Ohio and Michigan that's one example. I know we didn't. And this is on top of their prognostication. With the New York Times that the house stays 95% for Republican in the senate will remain a Republican in 95% to now. We have thought that we discussed it doesn't look like the Democrats will get the numbers to capture the senate so even if Clinton does when she's going to be facing Republican House and Republicans and. I mean these New York time projections are not giving Clinton. Michigan war with scouts. They're not giving Clinton Pennsylvania. And grow. And lately I've just knowing what's what's website and yeah. And assimilating back how many and has 305 yeah that has him winning running away. So. Which if he wins Wisconsin Michigan. It will look like I mean you'll get pretty close to that man as the new. You bring in the Nevada Utah Arizona and Iowa and he gets to suddenly a holy cow where is this number come from situation in and the Dow's down about 800 as we top. Is it it's just going to be. That's that's how we need to go off the air my retirement is. Yeah. Yeah again in our trucks I don't know exactly how you you agree that we so I went and had I'm not joking commitment productive could wake up to hold regional legally 900 ward rock out. What does that welders. And when these ideas into the he would be. Real scary Joker not make. The point we're really trying to make here's the point who around Donald Trump. After the Dow's down oh look at the open tomorrow at sites down. When he 500 which is entirely possible. Who is around him can say they need to put the war now that helped that yellen states. Would would that make it did make a huge difference why because it's the very kind of thing that they think he won't do. They think he's gonna blow at all. Floor name for a secretary of treasury. That everyone is comfortable here yet so I'll say yeah he's I'm surrounding myself than you do that and who will do that for him pets is the person to do it form. But will Donald Trump let him do that. Yeah I mean I think I think they're that the but the mess if we do see Donna from win tonight is. He's got to be really careful because I've been used enemy at this point Elliott that he doesn't want to alienate. It is base of supporters that you know that want him to take yellen now that's fraud and so he's got to figure out how to how to assure. The American economy. That there's enough stability. That he has room to make America great again yeah while the same time not alienating. All of those folks that appear to be putting him toward the president's latest news and Colin. We told the AP is called Florida for trump that puts him up to a 197. Electoral votes to Hillary Clinton's a 131. Meanwhile North Carolina they've gotten 91% of the votes and in front extended his lead to four and a half percent in North Carolina so that one's coming. Close to being ready to call that one bit still too close to call meanwhile here in Louisiana in the US senate race who will face. State treasurer John Kennedy in the run off right now Charles Bruce Danny has jumped out to a 4000 vote lead over Foster Campbell. Still too close to call there 84% of the votes aren't. I don't know what saying I. Kimberly we're talking about a possible trump victory meant it seems like at the beginning of the night. We were talking about how lopsided the election could possibly be and now to have news media coming in and suggesting that wish Wisconsin and Michigan could flip. On NB a source of his victories as. Loan me in New York Times wouldn't put that on the web site and I'll learn minuses you know this is an attempt to predict this is based on available David sexson pulled it and so returns of the cup then. New York Times news is trying to. You know. Predict and you know so it's not gospel we don't have necessarily that I took 305. Truck Electoral College votes swing for Donald Trump by it. You wouldn't have a 94%. Assurance rate I mean one at a sixty to forty or fifty evident wealthy 545 means but I have a my suggestion is that they stick to what we always stop a war which is a newspaper. And get out of the prediction. I love it I mean it's not you know I mean and our point our point in all of this is the media got away from Los in this country. And that's part of what tonight is about. Four of them to keep acting like they are the best political analysts in the world is hurting us. As it hurts them and they don't see that. I can't argue with that good point coming right back actually whether it's and a doughnut forget. Many many thanks image food bill Leone religion appeals. Breakfast lunch catering its enemies goods sent me food and LB dot com from menu didn't scheduled. For a holiday catering go to Jack Dempsey dot net.