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Think Tank 1010am Is automation going to keep Trump from making America great again

Dec 20, 2016|

Is automation going to keep Trump from making America great again? U.S. factories are working again but they’re working with fewer employees.  Automation is costing the U.S. jobs. How do businesses help save jobs when automation is cheaper than employees? This hours guest: Dr. Salim Furth - Research fellow in macroeconomics at The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis Dr. Walter 'Dub' Lane - Associate Professor of Economics & Finance @ UNO

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

I welcome back to the use of the intent. Some of more roll rooms in the Pacific. And while the US military ship pour the move to urge. Was trying to get a backpack I'm trying to ship bitten and a couple of days ago. Via a story about these said. Meego and we can think about those. On April we did they stole it and keep it in today joke and then now it's back in the waters. I think some poems read you pick it and you won't make sure. You returned to the right person on the bright in that. So we're gonna take a look at is urged Joe's. An escalating war of words is it than that or is that something more. 11 o'clock. Upload victims from August. Sounds like every minute here to via. Katrina after man. Homeowners claim there have been major problems that banks mortgage companies and insurance companies. We're gonna hand. Couple of people and we we couldn't get the whole rumors and sells. Where you licensing board on board and be cheaper exam room with him all of its open and true community in institutions. To talk about watched one and now. Sell more. I read an article balls and drew me in problem it's. Fact group is working again factoring. Workers not too much. And it's a double to launch plans to reignite the dumps wrong job rogue. But many blows you'll former factory workers are being frozen out. That'll Russert collapsed and I pulled it buried 2013. Report from Oxford University that concluded. That those. About 47%. Of total U was some ointment is at risk because of automation. And having rolled into long enough and it's well maybe that shows blown entity. But I'm appalled of 2013. Report and McKinsey and company. Forecasting. Them corporation. Eliminate as much as 45 punts and work activities crudely put him in the UNF. Little scary blood that we will know whether we were in the you better check in particular would be experts. Raptor doctor room and Salim part of church though in macro economics. Heritage Foundation says Rupert. And elvis' doctor and choose someone from the call. So we have we've got present electoral today. We're gonna bring the jobs that we got him. And convincing united technology. And a couple other companies that he did jobs hero and America. Is automation go I'm gonna hurt that emperor in in the major way. Yeah the president. Can do very much in these long term trend either to accelerate them or to stop them. We've had we've got an animation going on for you know the last couple hundred years this isn't anything new. The big thing that I think American workers need to be aware of is that the nature of work is constantly changing. And it's not I'm not so worried about. Mass unemployment we didn't seem that only built factories in the eighteen hundreds it into them. Automated as factories and nineteen hundred's I don't agreement yet again in this country. Do worry coworkers to. Don't. Interface well if the new technologies that we happen you know and in each one of these stops. As we weren't more automated. You need to interact with is the technology that's being used your workplace and that but just that fact that your a medical professional today com. You don't connect you know your job is to be taken by iRobot by. You're gonna need to interact with a variety of new technologies that are constantly coming online but are making health care batter. And people who. Don't make that transition well those the people who think we have to worry about. In the 21 century. From one term United Technologies. And I think the Aruba. Toward 100 jobs involved. Things he says you'd like her hundred. Convincing you know on technology and keep from him humans it's but regardless I be achieved a book. Chief executive. Of United Technologies. It was on securities and you said this month an embarrassment to automate the Indianapolis. Carrier plan. Will ultimately. Mean for you were jobs. Another company unit from dirt payment to Kennametal incorporated. They scrapped plans totally the move to Mexico. But aren't secure and tested. Potential whales for a number of employees. He says because the decision came with the trade don't probe more than 200 million dollar or parole. Of cameramen and act renews that group please. Hundreds of workers with machines. I hear what you're seeing what would don't actually shows in the content. All of these X but didn't Schultz you need a technology. In this country. Up had businesses. Mad scientists on the show that said yeah and industrial revolution pre industrial revolution. Is is like a gram of hockey stick and all of that was on the bottom Ortiz today. But now were on the upside launch rate up. In the speed is so fast. That those without the ability. To transform. We're gonna be left behind. And those are or are big numbers you are your thoughts. So. Is way that I've heard that the Arctic stick described as everything up until 18100 was that was. Shaft of the steps and they can rebound on the business and and I think that's accurate. When I look at the data I don't see any evidence that automation has sped out Sam the last 220. We we have not seen great productivity gains we haven't seen. In a big increases in the returns to capitol. The kinds of things that you'd expect to see if there were. Major economically useful changes obviously we've got Smartphones and all these apps now and I'm tremendously to share information and huge changes and that's a relatively small share of the economy in the sense that while we spent a lot of time reading and writing and communicating with each other. That's not a huge share of the dollars that we spend on. And you look at you know totaling fracturing jobs they expect and declining what you get is this sort of stepped down function. All went out when a company has an existing factory Dixon you know. Million to nine dollars building these things maybe 3040 years ago that they installed all that investment. And even when conditions change the party get investments an estimated hire workers to produced using using that equipment. When that wears out and going back to that question a carrier united technology when that wears out and have a decision today. Moved production if they're gonna invest a new round of a couple hundred million dollars. Partly to do that are in the U faster overseas and they can do it in an old fashioned way or a you know new modern way and I can see it is going to be arguments to be this year brought. But there's really no argument for using outdated technology on the realities the outdated technology used more human labor. At lower pace of the modern technology. The pace guilt rise to getting workers who are being more productive fisheries and better technology but there aren't as many of them so. Anytime you do that you see that's you know new investment coming and but investment grade and create jobs it's going to. You know increase output here in the US. But they're just never gonna build. In 1970 east title. Factory. With moderate and fast and so. Every time you're gonna east it is just big investment. Her to retire but one of Apple's suppliers and decent assembly in the lap and there's no way they can afford to compete whereas. See. You know Asian workers currently do assembly but they ought to make a lot of that maybe they can compete and then edit the street we don't get as many jobs by. If we refused to do you know to stay current with technology. On what is known as nobody's gonna be. That we can make money. Investing in 1970s style factories he. All right Douglas only take rig here when we come back. Hayward saying but the biggest part I think it's still. And I'm populations. Or baby boomers. And a lot of my they've grown on Social Security disability. Because once the bros built here at once manufacturing. Plants begin to clothes. They could not. Ankle to me to the new technology. What are we do with the men and or they use already goal on what your talking about. Well handled the younger generation to come right back. Double dubbed Leo brigade celebrity among 53. At him. Our welcome back group thinker go to Wall Street Journal well. US factories were working again and more reasons. Pumping out more products but workers not so much. Talking problems skill former factory workers or being frozen out. Federal Cheryl that's where after doctor Salim for the road church a little Mac crew economics. Heritage Foundation's center for data analysts. Doctored in Cuba a picture and cinema sitting. Apart her android you're seeing when you look at the manufacturing. Technology. It it's really moving at X but in troops speed. And if I understood that. That mean age. That were born not in the bond that some of the stores are talking about. With robo products will. Automation. That's right so. I pulled the grass slower and operate to and not I looked at B. The difference between the decline in industry employment in 1960. And seventy. And that and agricultural employment. Want to return to 1970. We lost agricultural jobs. For. 150 years at twice the rate now losing manufacturing shops. If you went to president Lincoln an 1860 inside. Up. We're gonna we're gonna lose virtually every other cultural job in this country. But. Unemployment can be about the same and a hundred years that is as it is I don't know if you would believe you. We. We were somehow you know virtually in half more than half the country worked on farms and we we've lost virtually all that. Are without any mass period of unemployment that was you know the Great Depression happened development. Most of agriculture to party gone well before that. So weak it's not that not happening is that it's not on precedent to dissident a new challenge that we've ever faced before. This is an old challenge one that. In the past I think we actually handled really well. You know factories rose but also services took the decline of agriculture. And that as a major employer and we improve people's lives race people there are much happier with their nine to five in an offense and they Wear. You know with something like a 5 AM to 9 PM. Doing backbreaking labor farm some years not get harvest and that was that was not nice life for foremost. Agricultural workers factories were on not very pleasant either until pretty recently. One when you know we have more Morse ergonomic. Working conditions there. The challenges that we haven't been creating jobs rapidly enough so to US investment instrument it's really need that we need. Lower regulation all the things that. Will allow us to have to dynamic response to job loss and we used to mention baby boomers for the break. That's exactly right worried about and even if they're not enemy action. And I mentioned of people and in medical profession to play offices. If you're not able to use technology here you know 65 years old. And you've been doing a job the same way for thirty years and they changed the way it's done happening everywhere in the economy not just manufacturing. If you can't keep up. At the top spot and we are seeing people like that movement disability. And and that's a real big counted I don't have a simple solution that. And it and those numbers are huge we had to be. Former Hibbert Social Security content and he's said that board what happened with the Roche build applications. Manufacturing. Move planned showed. In India and the federal government debrief blog brown told states to retrain in them. And the people we talked to do blend into these re training sessions. Set them for a couple weeks instructors said Le Jean Uga has just. Don't have the potential to learn computers to learn technology. You ought to go and Social Security disability. Managers say that that sort lord's group of people. Bet or add those that are. There Baldwin groups at this point do you think that the young people. Coming out of college with college degrees that can't find jobs will eventually be able to. Find jobs due to technology. Or they gonna be in trouble too. If you got a college degree young and the US today. Your prospects are dead somebody who go to Portugal into the camp and work. The parents pick in the basement. You know now if you didn't go to college. If you make bad decisions at age fifteen we all that right if you're bad decisions involve dropping at a school. Having kids don't jail. You might have some trouble. That's those are people who are wary of a lot more than you know to tamp apology grad. Who can find where it just might not be what they hoped it would be. I'm not so worried again to tolerate a college educated people. We need to be serious disability. We have a disability program is designed for. Industrial workers who lost an arm like a pot machine right but doesn't much anymore. Thankfully. And kind of jobs that you know most of us work and today aren't the kind that involves you know. Has these physical labor to the pew. Com some of us are working with our our mind their voices. Where we're thinking we're writing. Things that especially with modern technology summit with. You know non crippling possibly can do but our program instead of saying okay. We see that you got you know a partial disability. We're gonna provide a little bit and comes that you can keep your home and in our apartment. The work with you get into work. That you can do with your disability he got lower back pain okay. You know what a doctor as well treated. It would it says is we we take people. Who have something again. We didn't discipline we if you work we're gonna take this money away so there will be pain not to work and guess what happens when you sit around at home all day the pitcher. The government not to work your health gets war. You know your your socially isolated you don't have that okay got a good about untapped gotta get up in the morning and a treat myself right. So we're putting people literally into a program that hurts their help. That's our government response to a partial disability. Are and so without you know we're not talking a story to the street. But we need to be much smarter. And and update this forward in a 21 century work environment. And we don't come along way in you know if you if your wheelchair. Are any building built the last fifty years you can get wasn't the case pastor or disability program. Doctor are unfortunately. Time and a conclusion to hold our. Definitely do better talk contribute a good thing to call. All right cover of the actual talk to a professor of economics do you know what you think when you're. Or you couldn't serve the nation or not too huge or 187. All right here's what we're talking about it tarred doubling of Bill Clinton drugs more opinion poll. Is all they shouldn't going to cued trump from making America great again and eight the 1%. Abuse say you know. Boldness to troll you better be successful because of a state in the people that voted for you or expecting big things. The reason we've been raised the question. Wall Street Journal says currently in liberal publication. Editor article yesterday that said US factories were working doing more work through were coming back. Of the United States. Factory workers not so much. And it in the Wall Street Journal this is what they're saying Donald Trump plans to reignite in those who have jobs grow. But merely a little wolves you'll former back from workers or being Rosen Al. Often turn to load doctor Wald you don't lean. Professor of economics. And in and said you reload doctors always appreciated that time. Good morning. So it's everything. Are our workers being frozen out or factories begin. To produce more. It. We yet all the all the evidence says that we have been an increasing amount of robotics and other technologies that are. Displacing factory worker so even if you get the factory production back. That's not gonna bring as many jobs as it used to because again increasing technology has made it possible for us to reduce those. Goods and services with less speed. And and again prevalent trumped. Within drew via. Terror organization. United Technologies. I think there about 2021. Dropped somewhere in there. The wrong way to Mexico. In here and being in the cab on thing was separate hundred jobs in the country. Well I assume he'd do a re doing an interview on CNBC. With the you know I ended technologies'. Carrier executive. And he says and it's. An embarrassment to all automated the Indianapolis as terror group plan. Will ultimately mean fewer jobs and acts one we can do. Because again that the peak production has always to see what police caught way of doing it. You know people people experts especially these days. When you include Donnelly wages and health benefits if you got a machine with technology improves. Machines can just do. If you do you do one up time upfront capital investment the bite machine. And after that. The marginal cost of renting it is is much less and we've just seen a huge amount. I'm going on and especially the last most of the 1990s. But. Was thrown since 2000 we've seen huge amount about going on. And and again we always your Litsch bring apple back to that some of the committee time pollutants here. We're talking about doing with the 35%. Tax on business so. They'll bring their money back from overseas. But if apple would come back in those trillion dollars plus would come back. But where does it go. Well again. If you if you put an attack on two of those jobs will come back there's is that we also he automation going on even in other countries as. Now the differences we may have to slow rate wage rates and Indian on Wednesday. Then that the machine to paerson of having the machine do it we're having person do it favors the person of weight which are. But I always great to bakery pie which makes the machines much more. Attracted so even if you did have some bomb attack if you you could argue that we lost a lot of jobs especially. And you know textile and things like that that are currently in intensive. Two other countries in the 1990s. That was one of the biggest causes of our job loss during that. Since this that have that happen. But we've seeing more job loss because of technology and ends in terror some other countries but don't solve that problem. All right let me dig regular convoy died probe for listeners. I know businesses from terrorist but journalist you have. What we're hearing is correct if technology. Is is going to. Eliminate. Some of the human jobs perhaps a lot. And from. Regardless of whose intentions regardless what he wants to do and can't do it portrait response then why would do one from to do. Two's are general 170. Dump yeah. Well apparently it was earlier worried about it here in Louisiana arm project board of the rubio. I want the opinion poll. Is automation. Gonna keep pro from making America grew in 85%. Of his say absolutely not. The reason we're even asking the question Wall Street Journal article euros factories working again and factory workers and so moments they're not being rehired violent. The factories are making more product and get more ordering via. Automation. And robot. We have bug doctor Walter Dublin with a huge economists in the and and considerate. You know. A doctorate question I've always been wondering. You know Carlos Slim news. Are you. He is do you run unbeknownst to most people he has the second richest man in the world definitely. Richest men in Mexico we have in fact yesterday. He damp with from. And I was reading an article so wouldn't that several months without due to didn't show. Where he hands. I don't know tens or hundreds of pounds and employees. Worldwide is a manufacturer of many things. And he has gone to lead three day work week. And he said the reason it's. Young people can't find jobs because regardless. Of their education their jaws on there. Older people are not. Retiring. Because they got to make ends meet. Stirs gone to a three day work week to a major bowl breed quote baby boomers. To provide their decades. Of expertise. Two of the younger people that are being hired. Did don't to have the qualifications but yet the qualifications. From the older workers. And I I think he's been at at either 910 months. And he said the results have really been good and UC. Anywhere in the future if just F. Automation. Moves at X but in true speed which means. It takes over Ole hole what more jobs and we can concede at this point. Do you see something like that working at the reader who were quick. I had not heard of that particular. Issue but I do know that the general. Demographic. Problem vote because of the baby boomers are. Reaching retirement age there is giving me a little bit of gap in the yeah in the working population and and weren't at the time tradition that may be happening. I did not follow the three day work week is being a solution to that but it certainly is a possibility. That the problem as one that that is pretty well now. One thing I think people need to remember about. You know these automation technology you know causing jobs to go weight it's that's been happening forever and ever. I like academic students that in the late eighteen hundreds right around the time of the industrial revolution. Remember we have 80% of the population of the United States worked on the war to produce basically what was food shelter opening. It is because that's all because the art technology that you had to have that many people you can work forty acres and that's about what it app. But ago I wrote in Europe for them. Engineers and loses I have problems show since that's all true. A blog your talked about. Hockey's big rap. And all of that was proceedings. And evolution. Time. And there herb so opposes issues we. The hockey stick that hit the block and that civic radar. Amber moving and it acts credentialed speed. And what occurred in evolution Hillary and does not relate to technology. Expert will speak so I'm making news. I'd know I understand that that that is that is a major concern. Is that how Long Will this tradition. Make the point of trying to make is that as we took people that move from the farm. That we now point 6% beat our problem population in the form all those people lost their jobs before they moved the city's Boogaard back. Now the question is right now we have losing people factories that it moving into the service sector that's burglar. Who wrote the jobs are going to be. Would we are a couple problems one is do they have the skills that they need to do these Newark. That's a real concerns because a lot of the jobs created the factories at that time were pretty low skill package drops. Worse now we discuss jobs that are being created their a lot of them. Are we have a real matching problem because the people that are losing their jobs don't have the skill that it so I think in the short term. We have they have a real problem. With I think for for president. Elect prop to be able to create a lot of jobs because of this factor. It is not it's not going to be easy I think it will work like Tuesday. I think in the longer term you know there's this notion that topical wait forever that Puerto adult bully but I think we may have a real big transitional problems getting from here to there. Doctor Lillian. And like to bring a book in all the slugging it did become a huge. In your teachings of your own people. If you had not called as sting that you would never heard of loops. I. Urge you have an idea has always. Appreciated his time. Happy holidays merry Oprah's smooth and everything. Governor right but. Aren't you a comfortable that we're going to be playing good about it head blown out of the end recouped. It shouldn't be this are homeowners out red tape mortgage companies misinformation. To made club repairs. We're gonna talk to look a couple of Internet is that I think would I think I could be wrong pollute the debris and spill on the match. Your thoughts to usage or one lead severing your comments. This is double dubbed the all big celebrity in a moral five to reopen them.