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Think Tank 1110am automation and artificial intelligence

Jan 9, 2017|

Are American jobs going overseas or being lost to automation and artificial intelligence? Mark Rosa - Professor of Finance at Tulane

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

And good morning Dave Cowan and for Garland Robinette is we absolutely are warming up today it would that bountiful sunshine. And we'll continue each day this week to get a little bit warmer. Do we finally leave winter far in the rearview mirror and we get. Near eighty degrees by the coming weekend for afternoon highs this hour in the think tanks. Where are thinking about jobs. Has your job ever been threatened. By a computer. He robot. Or some automation system. Have you ever feared that artificial intelligence could replace you. That's a growing concern in this nation do you think it's good business or bad business replace people with automation. Or robots or even a move jobs overseas some experts now claim most American jobs are not being lost overseas. But being eliminated by automation and AI. So when president elect trump claims he is forcing companies keep jobs in America. Are we getting the whole story. Where is he just forcing companies to find ways to eliminate. Those jobs. And get computers machines or robots to do them instead joining us to think about this is Tulane business professor. Mark rose professor of finance. At two lane and mark how are able UW could get a having Indiana they have ducky yet this year so I don't get I knew. You I think and and this is not is arbitrary but. I think it's a two week cut off where if you haven't talked to summon the first two weeks of the new year you can still win and happy new year. I think so we're got to research the protocols that. Get at the bottom of because like I get that in like June of every year and it does himself with you here. But trying to get to a it's a little bit of an exact yeah but it seems like that. I think here happy Mardi Gras finally replaces happy new year for some people I can get a not till February 28 this mark. How big a issue. Is this growing trend. Automation robotics and artificial intelligence. Big companies are trying to find ways to employ fewer people and have the machines do more of the war. They've both think. It's been an issue for years decades. And I think it's couldn't continue. And we've gotten fall more. Deeply into technologies so it seems like it's working faster and faster because computers and machinery and innovation is happening at that. At a better quicker pace but it you know you look at that the let's say the banking industry along with go with the ATM. In exempted. So we didn't hit it absolutely some delegates in the Japanese that could give us before that but that was. Well he you don't Hisham machine that could dispense money it that's all you need it's there 24/7. You have to buy other person you did the facility doesn't have to be open and in the ceremonies will pretty much walking into the branch. Everything went to cellphones and Smartphones PCs and that was available so here comes as this piece of automation. That could lessen that the number of trips to make it a little bit more convenient we don't have to go with the bank is open in the you know the proverbial banker's hours might have been in it in a tighter window opening our mail. So I think that's happened in the paint. And it's happening more today and there are some other whenever he you know it would surprising to see what the the put shall one side of the political aisle was for the fifteen dollar minimum wage and it hasn't been changed in the number of years. And remember. Saying symbol program insists it's it's like world say indexed for inflation. It wouldn't be facing the sticker shock that we're facing it goes from seven to fifteen dollars and nasal. If they dissent over time it'll go up wins whenever the precise indicator reads you choose. To have it go. That did that it it ended you know a lot of things the government indexes to inflation and you have been incremental. Businesses could play in fort a lot of things can be put into motion that you would he has such that the comments that they were made it. Will you increase thinks Obama policy in the case of fast food restaurants and places that have a lot of minimal wage workers. You you hit me with a 100% increase. Ian La Costa vote. Human capital in usually that the biggest single item on any income statement for a company in the expense. Area. Use is people so he needs this is now he exploited that April is so it's so if you could double that. Well it did they did that Seattle and it's been it is as step receptive businesses closing you have it. It is indeed crude to sport to fans so you incremented that. Increasing with inflation they do that with those sectors do it with a lot of things that would be say to that sticker shock but. Also yet that the colts to you know it's an economic turn them Portugal product of capital the marginal product of labor itself like a multiple marsh. But it's it's just how much you getting from a much as a business benefiting from the addition of both of the person. First is the addition of the piece of capital equipment. And if the cost of laborers rising so rapidly. And you're not getting the return government investment and that we turn to the machines say it will consult and be bill. To do a menial task school routine task in basic care and you can see that and stole. You know it's I yelled at that because yet you talk about double laying. And in the Weezer bass pro worker as an example is that once people become familiar with current recent debates. Is. If you double which you have to pay a fast food worker. Is there anyway and double what they bring to the table can you double their productivity or double their ability to bring income. Into the fast food restaurant and obviously the answer is no the despite doubling their salary doesn't mean that they're going to be responsible for twice as much. Revenue for this for the fast food. I'll locations so that the question becomes so Heidi you do that. And I think that's why we're seeing with the touch screen ordering kiosks that more and more fast food places. Are experimenting where the ordering on your phone you know almost every fast food place now you can actually order your food on your phone before you get. And I have to do is going and pick it up now on how many people do that but they have introduced it there making it available and you think that's the way we're going. If it's gonna cost them more to have employees they're gonna find ways not to have more employee. Detroit in and it's all due to it's it's owed to compensate for such an increase in the if if you had to increase in. Some something insignificant that the that the plea to this cement with token generically cities you've got some of that. That really is is not a big expense and it doubled. Art so what is the single payers will make it up some way it would not spent a lot of time at but it feature largest expense item that doubles. Thank you reelected then that becomes the elephant in the room we can't work around it and. You know economics one award is gonna kicking and just say well all right it is just going to be. In the in the fans who world. We make money off selling product like those big businesses do it we just gonna have to compensate for the increase in the price of the product. Accordingly well. I don't. You're anyway anybody else we don't have to need access to we choose to eat at fast food any other place so we get the cost of the burgers. Doubled. Which would be the exact but make it up for the cost of labor and everything will be just principal. Well I don't have to eat that and and demand dries up. It and it would back to square one the business can't survive. It is it's a mandated middle way. And you know mid. Who got ripped fullest effect it it's because these little expected pace somebody in its fifteen dollar and now about 32 grade year. Regardless of these hills that record some music at regardless of which you could do. Debt that mounts to order you'd you'd use tactical very forth they're so they've that they going to be. Pricing themselves out of the workforce. Especially people that are trying to get distorted high school workers. It people working in the in this numbers bill. I think in a canopy let's insisting though was because that's mandated by law well. That's you're not. Good to get those storage option aka the ghetto the summary intern ship. A part time job that you don't businesses are just trying to bring somebody or that we could beat you you beat person could help Europe there you've been priced pocket. And leaving you really leaving the employer in that case no choice. But to find ways to get rid of employees. To save on the cost because they're not gonna go bankrupt over it and act and double their cost to the public because and the public stopped shopping there and stop assuming their product and I were talking with mark gross at Tulane. Professor of finance when we come back. Let's get away from fast food and talk about other industries where automation. Artificial intelligence and robotics. May replace you. Sooner than you realize what are the other. Industries. Businesses and jobs. That are most at risk of being replaced. By artificial intelligence computers. Or robots. And is this a bigger problem. Then moving jobs overseas that's where all the attention has been bosses if you're voting online at our big 870 pretty jaguar opinion poll do you think it's good business to replace people with automation. Or robots or to move jobs overseas. Our brigade seventy break down our opinion podium it's good business replace people with automation and robots are moved jobs overseas. Of those of you logging on at WWL back on 83% say no only 17%. Say yes and frankly that kind of surprises me. Because don't to want businesses to be ultimately profitable and make more money but that someone else points now. If you get rid of all the employees. Who will be making money in the society who will have cash and money to pay for good use now. If there are no more people working at business all businesses. Will go under I think that's taking it to the end it's going to the extreme. Outcome of a trend but you make a good point someone else says my company just introduced receptionist for iPad. It's an office solution for people who can't afford a secretary and the workplace of the future you know I was at a hospital in that. And I noticed in the ER. They had automated checking in. No longer do you go to the window where someone talks do you ask you what's wrong with you and doing all that. It starts that you want and you scan your driver's license in the emergency room. And you log in. Before someone comes and you all with you so automation is everywhere now mark rose of Tulane professor of finance. Where we go what this and we talk about fast food we just out there about receptionists. What other. Industries or jobs are most do you think it risk as this technology continues to grow and improve of being automated out of a job. They don't think the examples that you just cited in interest to talk about this in general it's always in the entry level worker. That's always been at war dead at risk you don't talk about management units seldom well fewer times talk about those types of positions that. That you got in human and eventually got to make decision you've got to hit some subjectivity. What some of the aspects of the business that's a little bit tougher automate. It even with. You had mentioned some examples a moment ago and think about it do you checking into certain things Walid they getting rid of that entry level work or upfront so. But the ones federal under a lot of pressure. I meant to say at the last segment you know opposite. I have I'm fortunate enough but say that because alike enjoy traveling in and am fortunate enough to have some opportunities to do so with two. Spain about five years ago in their fast food restaurants already him. Employed. These itself champions that you walked in the you have the kiosk. You or you food cheap what you credit courting you put to get the court and you turn around in the as a patient try. It would be you know it is liquidating the occasion fairness that you wrote you Euro case. The cashier and the server really get someone and hit a bus watch in the machines to make sure that make in the food right. Make it the food right. Put it altogether in these somebody just ultimately give should try to help pay it forward have to make any change would have to go through the collection of the money and so. How much it almost turns the restaurant into of that massive vending machine. That's right. In in this summer it was in Saint Petersburg Russia and was surprised there are a little bit slow would come around to within may be Europe would be of four levels that we would be the rest of the stinky unsuccessful. You walk in. Again you precious elections and you into future in it in there. The reducing incrementally. Up to make change though those those time consuming things. Because they they. They're betting on the majority of the people have electronic payment means which is routine nowadays so. You've seen that. Also seen it that two years ago when the when the peace seeking it would go back far enough the stop broke. Okay that's a letter percent commission job. They're paid for the now what you pay. But they will largely to they have been replaced incrementally I mean he used to be a 3% commission order trade back in the Lebanese body at a PC because they. The important piece cities so. You know attempt that did you for a quick for is that 101000 dollar trade completed three undergo commission. Stressful to today. Personable he do little world laptop you don't need anybody to help you do that makes the break out dollar trade and it cost you roughly seven dull flat commissions with them from 300 to seven. And there was no broker involved in that you lady you need to DIY you don't do that. Yellows in the advice of that broker or the expertise of that broker. If you wore in Indy in the case simply can make your world trade look look how much different that is and even jail. You know and several aspects of the economy if you if you do which itself is say the start of money. That's terrible people was created in all the big box stores in essence do we get people ability and as they do in the rose six eruption at random house of whatever you buy raw materials. So it created a whole industry with that stuff. It is in the in the case of hated by. This still matter in in the stock broker is if you call it that you broke out which replaces traits that you are from the 300 dollar trade daddy used to be so. That that's a margin squeeze and that you that your entry level person. Person that you doing business with the stock broker's license. Professional. It's not. They view of person that's a receptionist but. To a certain extent that's impacted them. This Coca. And Iraq so it does not only entry level it's not exactly yet but it right we've seen it and radio and television also though. Particularly in when you're talking about like music radio stations where one DJ. Can way he can record. Hours and hours of programming and they can record programming not only in one city but in 2345. Cities. And so there's just another example automation I think is going to be crawling into Antonin nook and cranny that management can find it to make use of it well. Oh it is in well it is the automation is. He is when he actually feasible to take the place so. That person so be it. When will we talk about wage pressures that we talk about people he races and all those types of things that it's it has to be mentioned that. If the if the cost of human capital rises too much. You can substitute him. Some automation to to try to keep that cost content and he is speaking of which the which it mentioned before. Egypt is sensitive issue new president elect clings to what to do something about it but did to quote shipping of jobs overseas well. When you put in a management position that everybody wants to hear this put a management position especially slowed publicly traded companies. Once that might have global skull Walid they need to move the resources around. They have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholder the owner of the company. So. He would be a whole different thing if they'd they'd be called in front of DNA annual meeting hold that for a big shareholders like Whitney YouTube could you could have saved. X number of dollars and usually they give it did get it open about which you could say this that you choose not to. You could've chosen and not the place to move manufacturing. Or two to move and other aspects of the business and he just wanted to keep the jobs here. Well. A Google to shareholders to agree with that the shareholder. Return of their best. Politically it sounds great for a PR standpoint it sounds great but from a bottom line standpoint and the shareholders whose money you're used in a run the business. Are totally different. Mark Grasso we appreciate your sharing your expertise with us this hour which do you think will be the bigger issue going forward. Shipping jobs overseas artificial intelligence robots and computers taking a wait. Will that the first would certainly he's got a we all lather up now because our new president has promised to do something about it it it will be interesting to see that rebels consider economics or in court to change. Change the course of the so. I love that that be interesting to follow. Aren't we shall follow it and we shall be talking to you again theories and I'm sure are always helpful. Professor of finance at Tulane University. Mark Rosen coming up after the news your calls market Darius are on the line you get on the line generated text messages and 87870. Interior voting online at our big 870 pretty jaguar opinion poll do you think it's good business to replace people with automation. And robots war to move jobs overseas. 1135 gave going to and the think tank for Garland Robinette. Is crime in the world on so out of control that reinforcements. Need to be deployed that's going to be our topic next hour here on WWL join us. After the news at noon to thaw talk about that will be joined by the attorney general for the state of Louisiana. And the police chief for the city of new war lines right now we're talking about automation. Artificial intelligence and robots. Taking jobs away from Americans is that a bigger threat you think. Then that shipping jobs overseas. And do you think it's good business. To say hey if my company can use a robot computer. Or a machine. To do a job. Should we do instead of having you back 81% of you logging on at WW out not counting nope that's not good business. In 19% say yes it is guessing most of you voting are not shareholders. In the company. One person says if you're job can be done by an app be afraid. Be very afraid. Another present Texas and it's 78 semi says on that one particular area of Arctic cannot be automated. I mean certified Curtis certified. Authorized clock repairman. Well I hope classic clocks outlive you because how many clocks are going to be to repair going forward with everything going digital you know really. People are gonna still have clocks that need re another person I think is probably more accurate when they say my career is today. Because today. Phoenix automation. Standard stock of the to make sure that the automation is running smoothly that the computers the robots of the artificial intelligence. Are doing their job yet that's where the future is vote is that people who repair the systems that are taking away the jobs also the people who design and build. The systems if you wanna be insured of a bright future. Be someone who can build automation to eliminate jobs and you'll always have a job Derrius thanks for calling here on WW. Hey good morning how are you gone. They keep outlook calling because. You're talking about Kevin drought terror. Arm that you would never thought would have automation and robotics taking over. And we mix in a radio. I was leaving more watery yeah well obviously we're on my call to take. Radio and television. Are the current programs are now autonomy. You know automated where it could be control from armed some warned. In new York and control was in program on television stations here in north or wherever. Absolutely agree and even in live programming needs to be an operator for every camera in a studio now those cameras can all be automated. Not robot. Steele will be at some cases they all he realized they are being in I don't think I mean I understand the business out of it but I don't think they're fair. I think it's great that it would've bought that. There's business whatever haven't gotten to where it is now or it's been automate. And I think a lot of people are in that vote Darius I think a lot of people think all my job is safe I'll never be replaced but artificial intelligence. As summing we haven't talked a whole lot about yet this hour. Is he huge emphasis. In your art in colleges and universities now and that's the future where they're coming up with not just computers that do what they're told. The computers that can almost literally think for themselves. And do many of the jobs that no one ever thought. A computer India. That's right Indian its gear and ski area because now you know we look at. How to listen what tuition hikes are going up for other reasons but whatever they are on line courses where students can sit at all. And there is an Oprah bachelor. You know that are at the end that's an automated system because not Europe Europe you know their computer sitting there. Our turn warriors that you put it in if you move from its front of that. Front of that camera why you doing whatever work if you do what it for a sort of clear. That's a penalty or something it yeah we moved from in front of the. Everybody even then I don't think the universities and colleges and again I don't care as long as you've paid your fees that don't care every sit in front of that. That camera or not if you've paid your fees they're happy. And your test results will determine. Whether or not you learn the material but then again if you're at home president cheating on those tests mark thanks for calling your on WW well good morning. Speak about artificial intelligence. And your inquiry there's two different things there's automation in order intelligence. Eyes in the wings would you. And I'll give you an example is in the medical field. The medical field today EQ given an actuary. You may wait twenty pretty sure every two hours in radiologist a brilliant actuary. In the comic or what Arab. Artificial intelligent. Which what agreed in extra standard or MRR. And some like pac. And what we'll check in less than a minute. They'll be able to tell you Jack which you and you have multiple. Multiple and. Notice. That are radiologist senator radiologists reading it looking at figuring it out you're saying the machines figure out what's wrong with. You know we. Were in the industry and you can do it sheik Ahmed EU REG. Image. She's. In it and check. So what joy. The replacement. Radiologist. To where it takes a radiologist or radio. It's agreed. Maybe I'll order Q Margaret studied game. Our computer can do that in and out and not impact our breaking up one artificial intelligence. Where you have your heart rate and slaughter you categorize them asks what is the most important thing to treat now. Ordered treatment options order and wait options or you egg with one. McKenna it and they you think they'll be able to do a better than a human being and would you trust that if you were sick. DP employment ancient rate of error. On human iron. In comparison to the album rip them in the data that they put in are intelligent systems. As our secure them in that that humans are now. And I get our your your counting on the human being who programs all of that initially. To do it well and you are right. Are what you are talking about Albert rhythms of albums on an album that Albert Abrams. In comparison. It it means. It's rare that technology's air and the leader. The leader in the apology. Is in the united and you would be surprised that the chargers that are either give me wanna. Israel. Actually it doesn't surprise thanks Marc we appreciate the call I'd be able to vaccinated 78 Saturday. With jobs they think are safe they can. Ever be replaced by computer artificial intelligence or robot. I but we'll take on some of those NC. If maybe they are they aren't. In the meantime when you text and it'd 7870 do you think your job is safe. We'll talk about that in the think tank after this for talking about artificial intelligence computers. And robots replacing human beings and do you think that the bigger threat. You future employment then moving jobs out of the country. We're talking about artificial intelligence robotics. Computers. In automation. Replacing human jobs and I think we've established from our experts and from many of the people we've talked to that this may be the bigger threat. Two US jobs then moving them overseas. One person tax rated 7870 don't think their job to save the semifinal game. Does my job I think it's safe on a cardiac surgeon. We heard our last caller though talk about how artificial intelligence now is getting to a point where radiologists or be immune placed. By artificial intelligence by longer rhythms and computers. Why not extrapolate that to a cardiac surgeon. Where he would take the human human error. Out of it you have the computer. And the artificial intelligence look at it analyze it figure out how to best fix it. Maybe maybe now I think I think you're close the real question is is it your job got out the view. Can you finish your life working that job before you replaced I think is the question for a lot of the jobs that the presence as my knees with just a hospital. At six machines honor. Doctor came over a monitor. To assess hurt conditions. And decide how she should be treated. Yeah and might have them have the same robotic systems deliver the medication. Whether it's intravenously. Or distributing pills for them to take why not have the robots. And the systems take care of all of that Oprah is as a truck driver. I deliver heavy stuff I'd like to see a driver Lewis vehicle back my dropped in to some of the spots that I've got again and at the convention center and hotels and in and around the city and through the French Quarter. Come line wryly. You don't think that they can make computers they can do that and robots that can do that. I don't know if it'll be in your lifetime but that's common not easy as the summit delivery driver I know my job is not say. You're right there already have drones doing deliveries. Taken things and sand in them to people. And there's no reason you can't have driver was cars and trucks doing that as well heck the driver Lewis struck pulls open for your house the drone flies out of the truck and drops it on your doorstep. Boom done and that one will happen in our lifetimes guarantee. Trade workers can never be replaced electricians sheet metal workers it's utterances and other text message at 87870. But then right after that I got another attacks that says computers and robots will take over most jobs I'm in construction ten years ago I would not. Say that. But now robots are already doing real you don't think a robot. Will be Ellicott. Sheet metal. And install it. As long as it's been programmed with the right plan. Absolutely it'll be able to do that palaces viva business and I can make more money employing robots and humans at a point robots. Our presence as my job safe. I'm an appliance technician. I I don't know that we'll ever have robots specs and appliances. But I think appliances are getting to a point where they're gonna be disposable no one's gonna bother to fix. And lucky you combine amazingly huge in a 65 events HDTV now but like order box. It's gonna cost a whole lot more than that makes it so just throw it out and get another one really. All right maybe this one airplane pilot. I think about that I'll answer and activists. That's only left we are talking about airplane pilot this guy Texan meats and I'll never replays which you flying a plane without a pilot with the US militaries are using robotic pilots and already using drones. I think it's only a matter of time. Before we see that all moving into the commercial round as well I don't know how soon though. In May be that big upcoming generation that believes in that kind of technology more than the current generation before that becomes a reality began I think in time. We won't see airplane pilots but as I cut grass for a living should I worry maybe avert the rumba. There he got robots that robots that. Do your vacuuming why not do your grass cutting the same basic principle let that'll come in time I got to say to someone like in a sportsman. Kind of the presence as they're crane operator and they don't think a robot can ever handle that. Other pars as robot repairman has escaped now Manning probably in less than make them so cheap to build it. One run breaks it just replace it with another one those as animal control officers say. I don't know about that. Plumber. In May be. A prison my job is safe on the police officer yeah I saw robo cup I think your policy. Numbers and says they can't take my job. Why not. It's access. I'm happily read to you or. More of us may get that job before it's all said and done and I know we're taking this the nth degree but. The Smartphone. Turn ten years old today. We only had Smartphones in our lives ten years it was ten years ago today that the first iPhone was ever entered news. And look at now by the end of this year it's estimated. 13. Of every human being on the planet earth will have a Smart. 13 that's in every country. In every nook and cranny of the of the world not just in the developed countries not just the wealthy countries that's everywhere. If that's the case. Think how quickly we're seeing technology. Eve all. Grow. And get disseminated. And the doubling rate and technological advancements is getting shorter and shorter and shorter so a lot of this stuff is coming. A league of this text message on this topic. One person says I know for certain. My job will never be replaced. Miami wife. Mother. And grandmother. I think you're at least two thirds correct them and never be available to replace mom Ingraham Marmol. Whatever you call. No way. I don't think artificial intelligence will ever get to a point we can have a robot raise a child. But on the white front. Let's show we did not long ago on sex robots just saying and I think there's a portion of our society that would prefer that over a living breathing human being with an opinion. Just and back to look at the serious problem of crime in New Orleans after this.

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