Nov 12, 2012|
Garland talks to Seth Hanlon, Director of Fiscal Reform at the Center for American Progress about Obama and tax cuts.
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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
We figured once again about the fiscal slipped below one thing we found out in the pre election and during election night with a political analyst after. Fiscal cliff is not jaws. And coming about in January they actually have to have a lot of things done by the end of November because -- gun runner up the pole for a number of agencies who have. Okay here's the number of other thing too it's really something that includes gonna get done has to get done -- toward the end of the year. We have Seth Hanlon -- as -- them fiscal reform at the Center for American Progress says welcome to -- sure reshoot done. Yeah and certainly on. American progress you'd be forgive me for asking but I ask everybody agrees there is progress is that bring progress live does that -- no liberal organization. It says it does Wear or nonpartisan. Think tank in policy organizations but yet we're definitely on the left end of the spectrum. The left side of the spectrum. There's an elderly -- -- about we've we've heard so much. During the U. Election that oh we're gonna -- together and now we're gonna get -- brew black. New York Times today President Obama says. There. Or going to be tax increases for the rich. You won't bend on -- Boehner -- and Wall Street Journal says there will be -- -- -- three zoos increases on the rich. And this is Politico. Democrats and President Obama his bid to thread over an extension of the bush era tax case -- For the higher learn to use as leverage over the Republican. Republicans. Need to raise the debt ceiling that you that is leverage. Over the White House. Sounds like the right doctor gridlock. Well I think he yeah you know though -- something's changed and -- things don't change and I think -- well obviously the things that changes we have we have an election. And present of -- one pretty decisively and and the Democrats picked up seats in the senate side and couldn't quite big -- in the house to rip it down -- it's done Republican hands. And so I mean I think there's there's momentum and and President Obama has a strong case. He got a mandate from the American people. On a lot of these issues. But sure I mean I think where he -- a lot of the same issues are. Are the same in Israel philosophical differences between the parties. And they're going to have to -- amount of the next my -- Everybody that I interviewed pre election an election night and we are Democrats and Republican political analyst Sumpter. Every one of them thought they just kick it down the road to lead in the you're reducing those two. I don't think so that you only didn't they didn't this year or next year. This year. I know I know there are no -- around 1223 treatment. And yes escalator next year I don't think so I think for a couple of reasons and I think President Obama. Feels like he did that once before in 2010. Many contended all of the tax cuts. -- between all the bush tax cuts for for two years. It is pretty clear than that there is. That was not any -- and do it again I mean that was an apartment economy as we keep his. A political weak point having lost the mid term elections. -- it is very clear that he wouldn't. You wouldn't against sign a bill that didn't doubt that extended the tax cuts without asking for. I'm more revenue from two putt at the high and -- and I think I think on both and then of course there's the -- this spending issues to him and me and continue to deal with the oppression that element. And I think on both sides there is just such as fatigue with -- -- I think there are so there are real desire to you. Have a deal that doesn't just put -- back into the same situation a year from now. -- just you know pushing this so called social fiscal cliff off a year. I think the combination mean that as President Obama -- -- the you know met. Being very clear he's not gonna sign a bill that -- just extends all the all the tax cuts. Understood the desire to. To deal with these issues sir Garnett. You know I'll put a beat some action in the end it. Months and hopefully I can keep pew for a couple more minutes could we need to take a break this is -- 270 million more revived the reopened. Welcome back for a -- -- those cells handling director of the reform and the sooner or. American quarters. Upset deprived -- plunged as you correctly in the first quarter of our our interview. You said that you thought they're really pretty good chance of both the elimination gridlock and an agreement on the fiscal cliff. I think something happens that happens. And I think what an important point is that you know -- January 1 is not quite a a drop dead date. I'm we've been trying to make the point that that cliff is kind of the wrong. -- analogy here it's more of a slope. Because they -- -- taxes do go out and and did it in government spending and cut across the board. But let's say that that happens just for a couple weeks and then congress. Cut a deal then. I'm congress is very likely to put back those tax cuts retroactive to the start of the year. To a could be you know the economic effects. Just such big tax increases and spending cuts. Are not all the sudden on January 1 if they're spread out over the year. So I think it's pretty like a minute edit any mr. -- chance that that nothing happens before January 1. I certainly hope that they do very able to get -- beyond -- by January 1. But even if they can't do it by January 1 the new congress comes and and I think it and then idealist is pretty likely after that. Com and and that's because certainly a desirable to have the uncertainty. Peter and not knowing what attacked Richard going to be and not now you know government agencies can't -- their budgets and everything. So the later this goes down and certainly the worst aspect I think. It it's not an -- thing you know an automatic recession it's not total can stay if we -- I'm idealist not by again our first. So like do agree with bill O Paul Krugman the and her brother is winning economist in New York Times today you stood Mr. President just say no over the -- -- necessary. It's worth pointing out that this group blip is a brilliant -- it's not like the debt ceiling confrontation were terrible things. Mike will happen right -- the deadline and have been miss this time. Nothing bad very bad -- happened in the economy if you agree -- agreement isn't reached for a few weeks. And yeah I Richardson. And that's right I mean I think that in a little later an agreement comes to worse I mean it's. If they can reach an agreement tomorrow that would be fantastic I think realistically. If it does take some time I mean in particular. Just the complexity of these issues are protecting that keep it with the entire tax code. And a host of tax cuts down corporate and individual and then payroll tax cuts. And then I'll be spending. A -- listening you know it's time for government agencies. And then you know I think actually you know a lot of people are talking about how. One potential. Way out of the gridlock where where. You know President Obama is insisting on. On wealthy people paying higher taxes and Republicans. Our our deputy cancer raising tax rates. That people are talking about some kind of -- -- revenue that. We can change revenue but it without increasing tax rates. For example by turning back deductions. And at that thing that even giving governor Romney talked about the campaign. But but -- like that is very complex and so it could take a little time to get a deal in place. Where did they -- have time -- this homework during the good debt crisis. There was -- guy is able couldn't. Yet they've been doing it but I think it's system you know it's there's new people now that they election cap and we could even have a new congress coming in. There's a new congress having to negotiate this and so. You know I don't know and then and then -- Darius. Introduce. Pressure government to meet the approaching. That feeling which is which comes up in February and I think. I'm going up against that -- -- -- tremendously damaging. You see anything possibility. Bold Simpson -- commission recipe. I remember correctly they're there were talking about -- short term stimulus for the economy and then. Entitlement program. Reform in the -- simplification. Of the tax code you've seen anything like that and. I think -- general approach is the right line which is -- which is basically have a you know balanced approach where where there are some spending cuts and some revenue increases. And that and then knows you know that deficit reduction doesn't happen and all of a sudden because the economy that was not recovering. -- -- -- have put measures in place to that it happened over the next two you know the next several years and an over that we're in a much better position take ten years from now. I mean I think there's there's definitely a device -- with the also send. Plan that would that we were down we would object to him and I think one of the one of the things -- they they. Well below -- -- without a cap on tax rates set at 20%. In the -- table won't make up the lost revenue and then SoundBite -- cutting deductions. But then if you look at their plan they really. They really take on a lot of popular deductions from from that tax exclusion for for employer health care. Mortgage interest deduction charitable deduction. And all these things that congress I think it's going to be extremely reluctant to really take on. -- that type of approach where you say hey let's get a lot more revenue by lowering tax rates. I think it's a little bit unrealistic but I think they're doubles -- some general approach. Saying let's analyze deficit reduction over the long term. Some from spending come from revenues is certainly the right one. You're a guy like me your not a lot of -- education Gandhi -- One listen to the liberal side of the do. Seem to have some very good point -- -- the conservative side of -- seem to have some very good ports we have to conserve and knowing that I help our before you. But I hero on both sides still. And in transients. Here in New Orleans and Louisiana I would submit we couldn't improve very much and -- we collapsed. You don't see -- collapse. On the basis that both of -- clubs. Think you're right you have -- dogma. And would be a violation of that dog -- to compromise. Everybody seems very proud. Of no compromise. You still see your breaking gridlock. How do I do and I think we got you know President Obama last summer. Should. Strong willingness fit to go for a deal that was basically three dollars and spending -- to one dollar in revenue increases. You know and that wasn't that -- And then of course and you know Republican side governor Romney says he wouldn't even go to -- deal that was ten to one spending and revenues. Com but I think that's sort of -- -- instances and that is pretty clear mandate against -- election. Common people really voted for a balanced approach and I think the you know senate Republicans. Have been saying you know as we -- -- -- compromised. Does that touched both spending and revenues and that's really on the house Republicans at this point to. Students -- look at bear. Their dog when they're flexible position of the last three years Suzanne you know hopefully that's where the -- -- -- free -- to cold very much good talks -- you have great today.