I've planned to do broad one -- chosen to have security Google Talk. Changing the program and some aspects cutting some things changing others. Dual boot of Reading decide which warrior -- grown this discussion I've run crosses. -- -- the urban institute in Washington. They say they just discovered another on suspected group -- -- the future of Social Security. And these are their words considering your transfers across the generation. Social Security of effectively reduce from huge money. For minorities blacks Hispanics and others to usually. Wealthier whites. And -- on a number and home reading all of we professionals shouldn't go on this. When are more talks on security -- Michael Tanner junior -- with the Cato Institute Michael welcome back to shore pretty sure Mexico. Well thank you. Is this true or resists. -- -- No not at all. -- evidences. The -- straightforward most would think. But the urban. Institute is -- a lot of that group van de area very good at least early in the folks there who do the research on this -- among the tops in the field. And that started on the same thing the problem that potentially -- expectancy. At every age. And it every income liable African American have a shorter white expectancy than do whites. And how much against the security benefits over the course -- -- dot depends on how long you live with -- Libya under a lot of -- did -- at 66 -- don't. The court so well. Took it took an identical situated. Black man and a white man -- statement come. They -- in the same amount of money over the course that -- -- the white men would get out more money the end of the day on average than blacks do because people of law. -- -- -- -- For every 100 dollars paid into the system. White beneficiary -- receive 113 dollars in benefits. One lecture received eighty million dollars Hispanics 58 dollars. And that becomes more appropriate announcer overtime -- talking about with the aid distribution. There over the next ten years wanted to get a 120 dollars for 200 dollars they put in on average. Black you'll get 91 whose clinic 62. That's the discrepancy you're talking about and. That's exactly right handed it also breaks of course for men to women women live longer than man. And purport to rich as well. Basically poor black men. Support rich white women on this -- on the program. And it'll get between 103. Black man -- Social Security benefit but died before the collect any benefit at all. Well. Does this phone call -- a -- and I just -- Over the next ten years what each would get a 120 dollars for every hundred dollars they put in. Or why is that beauty is that because we're living longer. That's right is it primarily like expected the and it made it a little -- the door because it's not quite good for white men -- get back slightly more than they -- and white women. Will particularly do well in part because. Marriage. Other more elected he'd married so they get the benefit of the -- will benefit and because they have much longer like expected. So. It is this something that needs to be picks than if it does how would be. Well I I don't know of any way to really stick it within the current system. The system is designed to some way to be progressive. That is lower income. People. -- we get a higher dollar return on each dollar they pay -- -- in terms related benefits to design. And that African Americans lower incomes -- in general they benefit from that. But they've -- it it's great system that that that the defined benefit system that has no inherent ability. People who natural life expectancies are gonna lose now. That's one of the reasons why people supported personal account back in the bush your would -- -- debate in both significant -- he died. Then -- been used to pat does not -- kids. I thought -- -- did die well. There could be -- -- one picture on Social Security does that payment pass on to your friendly. That he did not there are survivors benefit if your children are under -- that they can collect until they reach AGT but. One. Why don't want to get. They can get the ball security benefits that are mayors or husbands whichever is greater but only one -- -- Oh yeah what what do you hero of the year they're gonna lead changes to Social Security whether being metrics. Well the B of the so mobile for mood change do you see it culminated so what is. All -- it was going to be changes but probably not in the near term. Nobody in Washington release easily to talk to but the problem is the program from 22 trillion dollars in the red going forward. So it's eventually going to have to be dealt with -- running a deficit of about fifty billion dollars the year right now. About this theory of course they're taking that and practical security trust fund but the -- you might lose trust fund by redeeming about it general revenues. So it really adding about fifty billion dollars -- year to the deficit right now. And I've I've had the people on both -- listeners. And a couple of experts in in particular from the the liberal persuasion. The civil go well we need to do is make a couple of small adjustment -- -- increasing age or or whatever the -- may be. And this is not a long term problem shall we would surely. Will use up that multi trillion dollar debt. Do you agree. What you can get through the short term certainly it was small changes the problem is that the system is never going to get any better at being at the Social Security understand -- just they transfer from people or working to people who are retired. The people who paid him in the past that money long gone that's been spent. And there's simply relying on payment from. Young workers to pay their benefits and another young workers when they retire we'll have to get benefits from the neck -- generation beyond them. The problem is we're living longer and we're having fewer babies so the number of workers supporting each retiree gets smaller and smaller. And that's not gonna get any better in the future. Well not only -- getting better of my meant to us correctly get words for a. Well -- -- being we will be now we -- 1950 there were sixteen workers were paying in for every retiree. Natives about three. But what they want you to doubt it just about to and it really never get better than that it actually did stop about one point 81 point six -- ever burglary you retiree. And it stayed there pretty much go forward. Every young people read every young person I speak with says. I never expected -- managers -- window. Those things don't -- will be done where where. But the millennia old. Generations sooner or later will become the adult -- -- or are they going to put up with this Wednesday. Have the political power. Well I'd certainly think that you lot to do something that's not going to be terribly distraught if you need to do it now. Because in which you got it -- true problems simultaneously the baby boomers will be fully retired so they'll really be drawn from the system. In young people just -- and accepted that fact that there would be necessary to support them you'd have to have about 50% increased the payroll tax. In order to -- -- to the current system going. There OPEC is already high tech and the average American pays. So that would really be a blow to to young people. And the economy. Word of a whole lot of the losers from a lot of people minded -- Robert that ought to read into it on want my money. And also read that there's a certain age did you go pass. And all all the sudden you're getting money you'd didn't pay into it. It is not -- is that correct number to -- median age that that a career as usual. Well there is. And it. Right now you're still breaking a little bit on the plus side he retired today he'd get about 2.2 percent return on your money. Going forward that's going that's going to drop off and it should remember that even for people who stated paid into the system they're not getting back -- money. But it just attacks it it's. You know you pay it pack and you get benefit package and not really connected one to the other that it would you pay into the system. That money simply used the paper people who were already retired. A lot of people are not gonna and send them do a thing to say or regardless I paid the money and terrible and needed to whom. And I painted with the thought that when I became of retirement age I would give the money up put into it. Is is that feeling is that believe correct. While while being legalized essentially. Now for people who are retired today in fact is we're gonna they're gonna get the money they paid it would public and take their money away. But if you're a young person we like the I mean we're not gonna give you everything that's promised you right now we simply can't. I have. And one of recovery solutions may have even been do you. Had a -- call from a doctor in Alabama and we broad vision in this birds and things should look. I'm 82 years old. Made extremely good money when I was in practice. Let me enough to retire early him needed to today. And -- and thank you for 300000 dollars pro plus that I didn't put into the system. -- that kind of thing occur early -- is it rare. It -- -- have a car but it's very rare what most people. You know in the because they believe they pay into the system they believe that that money players that made me want to get it. Had very few people it's not the same way that you can. Voluntarily pay more than it was system and you paying taxes not Social Security but for the government in general. That people are unhappy about the deficit and they believe taxes are too low they can write the check to the treasury -- that that is the most people well. It so Ed Ed at this important time. Hollywood Billups hit it just seems like you pay a certain amount of money in. And then the longer you live. The the money you're being paid. Don't you eventually get to a point with the next dollar Uga is not money you paid into it even with -- 2% increases. Well I absolutely and that that's exactly right in 2% increase and what pain is physical ball which you paid into the system though. So you're actually get up 2% mortgage paid into the system. But there's no median age average age where you sort getting more than you put in is anybody gonna study on. I'm sure they have I don't know it for sure but. You know it would be probably. Poll I would say people who were in the forty to fifty right now going to be net losers. And he and four for people like me. That -- signal actually that alone what I and of them were doomed to have the government came in and okay is as soon as you've got. What to put in plus a little interest. -- stop the payments. -- your groups based on appeal I should get it because I paid into it. You would think that after the -- -- put into it is gone we wouldn't get anymore. But politically that -- No I don't -- Thabeet he used voluntarily patent that joke about that anything yet they get back but it paid at. I mean the reality is that wouldn't be fair because if you would be able to state that money on your -- you'd be able to earn interest payments on that you know a lot more money. So form. Next. 2030 years -- that. We of concern but no big concerns because during that period. Those that should get it will get it is just the forward generations that are gonna have try to figure this out. Not that that's right although that the owner would begin to make the changes the look drastic changes that could be he could face the middle of many years -- start now. If you wait twenty years it's going to be dropping off a cliff for those folks. Every keynesian economists over -- on the Schumer talking about -- Debt and deficit. They always cinema -- on don't stand. Basically. All you have to do -- for and money where one group countries of prince our own money. You print the -- report its its like putting. Gaps in -- carburetor. And and once the carburetor starts in the engine take its -- then your back call on the house but in the meantime we get a print. Is much money -- we need to get the economy going. Has has there ever been any thought to print more money to sustain. Searched her. Well it actually wouldn't help because benefit there inflation adjusted. So even if you tried to do what other debt you've put a lot of money you sort of inflate your way on the debt. With -- security did that help you because of the placing about the amount chip -- -- people benefit just go out the match. Well so we have the situation in the world where you can print money -- of impediment to bring the ball well. Earn interest and Michael always an education I appreciate the time the call is old news of great. All right coming right back its news on the Dave Gordon Garland rob them we -- the good thing.