Nov 25, 2013|
The United States and five other countries have reached an agreement with Iran to limit that countries path to a nuclear bomb. Is that a good thing or are we being fooled by an enemy? We were joined by Dr. Graeme Bannerman, Adjunct Scholar at Middle East Institute.
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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Cereal and supports once again the valuable time but doctor Graham betterment. Adjunct scholar of the Middle East Institute in the region and it is. I think it was Saturday where it was -- United States five of the world awards in abroad have breach dude what's -- historic. New leader do you. An effort to keep their Roland from developing nuclear weapons and doctor welcomed the show is always appreciate your time. My pleasure of just overall before we get into the details. Is -- -- and -- strange world out there Israel and Arab I mean Saudi Arabia. Or very unhappy about that is. We and they are wrong and or happy about that is. Is -- pitching like the the middle news world news is tilted on the taxes. More what are your thoughts about. Well clearly some people have different agendas in the Middle East our agenda the United States was were hoping to prevent Iran from developing in particular weapon. And secretary Kerry again and certainly the Europeans Russians and Chinese -- the agreement they reached on Saturday evening or Sunday morning. Was a step in that direction but only a step in that direction. Look a little let's get into particulars of more problem. They're going to be they're gonna this is just kind of a little. Temporary. Relief Theo and within the next six months they're gonna go into a more comprehensive pact and. That's the whole with this deal does is it. Stops be running in from advancing on the to test you'd do to develop nuclear weapons won the Richmond credit -- they've agreed to. -- not only stop the enriching beyond the 5% grade but to. These two also would not put any more enriching. Facilities on line and on the plutonium side of things they agreed not to make any more progress in building there. Our record reactors so this stops the Iranians from moving forward towards nuclear weapons grade materials. And the post on the inside that's the heavy water re up to. Her that's all right and this increases in oversight including daily monitoring body in -- from nuclear inspectors. And they go anywhere. That's what all of these things anonymous has seen the text of the agreement that the that the the presentation present to us by the American officials involved is. Yes that we it would go anywhere or will it be able to be certain that they're not cheating on this agreement. That has been proven now. What what do you think about ago. And did exactly doctor I reboot their. And the greens were reversed progress. Of all of wants major nuclear facilities. Caps that type in the middle of the and rich uranium that -- there is allowed to produce in order on. Go back to some of these and and as cute couple questions. All of this so form -- quarters dismantling. Or destruction. Of any of the centrifuges right. Brett I first noticed. There and and that leaves all the fizzle out visible amateur who in the wrong. And and isn't that the very fact they have that mercurial. Violation of multiple UN resolutions. Actually the UN resolutions have been priest burn on Iran but. The question that we're really remain in the long run is what we do to prevent Iran from getting in particular weapon and is this a step in that direction and I think. The overwhelming majority of the people were involved in negotiations believe it is the right steps to do with this time because we stop them from making any progress from moving forward because they had a steady pace over the last years of getting closer and closer. Still having enough material to make it several blogs. It's it's it's so interesting to me. Everything a ridge says we're gonna pay them by attitude through ten billion dollars. During this interim period. But every. Dense that I have a group and may even you brought almost an average of him on the experts on the move leaves. Talk of her role in that as is that terrorists sinners -- you know fueling spirited. Fueling Lebanon and rock and owner -- We give them ten billion dollars in the same time identified them as probably more than most powerful. Terrorist originating country. Well I think first of all we're not giving them any money from the United States what's happening is there's about four point two billion dollars that's. We -- money it. And for a foreign currency holdings of Iran that have been frozen in banks overseas that money will be released it -- -- in money that the deal's been themselves. The other part of that is. They're going to be able to trade in petrochemical products precious metals and airplane parts and automobile parts and so therefore. The total package to mean to Iran somewhere I think it's more close to seven billion dollars over this period of time of which. Parties trade and most is -- they're just getting access to their own money I think the problem with Iran as. How he developed a relationship and and everybody who runs a little differently you have in the Middle East today this struggle between the issues in the Sunnis. This is why the saudis aren't happy at all about this or they're not happy with the agreement on the Syrian chemical weapons. Because facilities agenda was to weaken the Shia opposition and to two stronger -- resilience are clearly. Iran and Syria so therefore they see. Plus negotiating agreements on how it gives credibility -- to Bashar -- and the Iran and machine that's what makes them nervous. My view is that it does the -- -- -- Well clearly it would it is clearly strength it is more credibility of both Iran and Syria and therefore that it inaccurate saudis that strengthens the people who are opposed to from our perspective there's little that we want to get involved in an internal Islamic. Civil war or war that exist like we used to we had in Europe and 16100 between the Protestants and the Catholics is just totally destructive and as a result fighters. Does no good for us. The question is who is more likely to be harmful to a I think. We need to look carefully at bowl site because there are extremist al-Qaeda is a Sunni group that's applied the saudis are -- We -- be very careful who we're strengthening I don't think it's -- just to strengthen either side. Or to get involved in this section. Involved in this region in and what's happening now or produced involved in the others. I don't think it's about this happening in. It in Syria for example if it's not really interest but we do have an interest and that and that and these agreements which appear to strengthened Iran and Syria. Go directly to American interest we have no desire. To have Iran with nuclear weapons -- Syria with chemical weapons if we can take those possibilities off the table. It that's very much in America's interest because those can be harmful to us. Directly and therefore we need to get rid of them. And therefore I think the steps that are being taken blood in very critical of the administration on hole is positive and his two positive steps this administration has taken the last. Five point which has been very positive American long term interests. Oh over the years I think I can be wrong -- the -- and problem. We don't Sobel and similar shows on North Korea where we thought the breakthroughs and that was monitoring. And came back and they had hidden facilities are facilities we didn't know about. I'll put it when it comes through assuming we're gonna have the ability to monitor. All the activities whatever they're hidden saluted and and the considered the Asia they can replace centrifuges that they can add to him. -- what happened zip she interviewed Jews not really damage. -- Oh. We don't and that and that's hopefully. Wendy negotiate the final agreement with the inspection regime will be so region. Then rigorous that we will be able to. Know if they're cheating on it on this exit exit. Agreement. What matters to which I think he runs a very different country to -- North Korea Iran isn't much more part of the world is much more part of the region and therefore it has many more interest at stake into the north Koreans I think me in -- perilous somewhat. Strained right I think also. That the United States has a long term interest in not having this on going wars that we had with the run -- just 1979. This has not been to our benefit we really would. We're never be friendly with Iran but we can make them less hostile that's in our interest and we should be working on that too. This is the autumn of looking -- -- before the break president brought this is after the agreement was committed in prison and goes Holden and goes home. And and -- you'd talks of protests and present Rahal -- came out and served. We demanded that and we kept our use uranium enrichment program. And Kerry says no the deal does not recognize the bright to a bridge and never read an article in foreign policy that says. They both agreed that they could go up in say that. What what do you make. Well I think that's part of the interpretation of the nonproliferation treaty it was an area of disagreement and the agreed to disagree on that. Because under the nonproliferation treaty it's silent on specific on enrichment if you're a member of the treaty canyon Richard -- it's not stated what went and other. But it is stated that you can have your own nuclear program in Richmond as part of developing the the top fuel for the nuclear reactors so therefore if you can play it anywhere you want and they allowed to go that way. Well what do you think because I used rule is going to do they've or pointed out through. A number of times worry raw onion representatives. Have come out and -- -- of these these people dogs in need to be eliminated. Well or are they just gonna sit there and say okay we're gonna wait and see if this works. Well it if it its interest in the government Israel itself has him in prime minister Netanyahu in particular has been very. Vocal in criticizing this and being very helpful. I'll call -- work within Israel you'll also had some of these security establishment retired military and intensity. And intelligence people who said that is actually not a bad step to do we should be trying to do that. Actually have an excuse in Israel but what's clear is that Israel. And so with stronger records in Washington and certainly on Capitol Hill are the biggest critics of this agreement and there's likely -- political battle in Washington over the issue whether. More sanctions -- -- put Iran at this time. On the clearly over the weekend you heard from senator Schumer and senator Menendez. And others thinking that they should present him with more sanctions despite disagreement and maybe make -- -- -- six months or one. We looked at these sanctions come into force if nothing happens to keep the pressure on Iran. The stores this new doodle and in particular -- all the way through. Is it contingent on our congress agreeing to a. We congress have to agree to the lifting of sanctions -- and it it ultimately that means they have to be part of the process. And administration will be indication. And extensive discussions with members of congress to bring them along. My -- experience over the last. Put too many decades working with congress. -- that his administration comes -- position and says we've reached agreement that's in the national interest of the United States and it's essential that congress goes along with that. Even if congress doesn't agree with -- don't go along with that could potentially -- administration. Foreign policy issue it I mean if you look at the Panama Canal treaty or you look at that particular tree -- any of the major issues were. Or support for the -- for under -- it's. If the president really put his mind to it that this is the national interest of the United States it's very difficult for congress to book that. Decision. Because. In all the jokes concerning this congress I mean they really they couldn't -- in limbo Borchardt saying. The president has that would control of foreign policy we're where he -- force in the green. Only all of those exceptional times where he says he can go on national television say this is the vital national interest of the United States he will prevail. But he can only do that sparingly and what happens is 95% of the international issues never reached that stage to congress' involvement and -- Tremendous Havoc in the ultimate step our administration. But all of the crucial issues even as the numbers don't agree with that or they don't choose their own political interest they usually go along because. The minute -- American president does take the -- on foreign policy. So the American public I mean the American president. Would have to get the public on his. No he just had to say that the national interest and I think that's I think of this one I think you it's sort of like on punts as we spoke about before on Syria. In the American public that actually it's turned -- -- against west becoming more involved and you advocate that we didn't want to -- of Kemper. And I think in this case I think most Americans who shippers say. We didn't steal a chance we should look and see what happens we should take the chance with this and yes people are nervous yes there's potential Iran lying to us. But we're moving in the right direction let's let's play this thing out. A prosumer -- was. Quoted as saying quote would. To be accusations in -- is attempting to build a ball and well that's one of the -- jokes infantry to your do you think there's any chance. That they weren't building you know. No I think I think if you assess and Tehran and this is one of the difficult part of the negotiations. If you said in Iran and you look at the world with American military bases surrounding you. -- discussions within the American Media is whether he brought Israel the United States should bomb -- The only way to prevent that from occurring if you're sitting in Iran would be to have a nuclear bomb. So somehow with the negotiations were going to have to find a way to assure you run against that we are not a threat to them. As well they have been a threat to us. If if -- strange final question. There that was movie many -- in the name and -- ago about it. Small country that new York and get the benefits of the most roared yes there. And it is is there any chance. This creates a mouse that -- as in the rest of the world were. Other countries. Take a look at what Qaddafi. Happened to him when he gave up his nuclear capability. What's happening to a Roland. When they build them to a certain point. Could could this become something -- and other countries do. Well I think I think example you do -- I've always said that was a very negative consequence was that. The lesson that the Iraq his word is don't give up your nuclear weapons and others too because if you do in the United States to change and turn on -- I think that's it's a long standing negotiations that they have to I think. I personally believe that in the long run. Forty years from now Iran having nuclear weapons. Unless some dramatic change it happens in the world. If we don't act now to slow them down at least and find ways to reassure them that they're not really threatened. The process portal which were quickly our goal is to slow them down and maybe changed that they're at their own perception of the world actually don't think they need to. Now -- that'll launch are absolutely. But in if we don't do that we will have a much more quickly than we think it'll before. Talk about a Momo learned so open every drama have you on thank you so much with the time really -- the discussion. My pleasure I would come right back pin will be talking to. On the big ruse moves on an expert on Roland in the Middle East and questions -- the comments to Sid 0170. Or Texas -- 8770. Org told for a unit were in the country it's six executed Lindsay grew its.