WWL>Topics>>1-9-13 11:10am Garland: on Iran

1-9-13 11:10am Garland: on Iran

Jan 9, 2014|

Garland discusses whether a civil war is brewing in Iran with Dr. Graeme Bannerman of the Middle East Institute.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

It's tacky thing to say but it -- -- group wasn't so serious and Saturday it would be funny. And we -- rant about the Middle East today in particular series -- Which you which Syria and rebel group trying to get. -- Is fighting the rebel group that's fighting them. That's fighting the sought. And ports Syrian rebel group is funded by a role in and there are four. The violence bleeding -- open to Lebanon. And imports Syrian group is funded by the salary news. Therefore. It's it is going over into Iraq. In the whole thing where and when you look at. Why we win it all the people we law homeward toolbar will. We spent. 41 maybe I'm not educated them and a house. Wasn't worth it and -- Republican thing yesterday in Wall Street Journal a couple of days ago and -- during. Talking about civil war now bridging and Brock. And the the the -- it was just almost despairing. That we've lost leverage. And and we can't. They have a Barack bulletin Maliki. We have no leverage the compelled him to do anything. And to me. But these experts are missing. The the American people are telling President Obama telling military telling congress. Doesn't. -- Unless we heard it again I can imagine that we'd be willing to get involved again but. As always. If by I have an opinion that I think he could be wrong we call the experts. Doctor -- betterment can always. Count on come and help me out adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute. Doctor happy new year per should call. You help me give you meet some numbers of -- -- lost what is going well. It's really quite interesting that the reason is going through a period approval oil that's likely to go -- for many years. And the only thing though like NC art history at western civilization. It's in the early seventeen simply wouldn't of the thirty years war in which revolution. And we devastated ourselves -- Germany's war. 13 of the population at that time to war -- towards. Annual and as I think the Middle East is especially Syria Iraq and what -- area are in for a very very difficult part. And as we look at the of the day in New York and -- porn and photograph of or young Syrian. Had been wounded in the bombing. Whom we knew when you look at the bodies and level on them the car bombs. Is it tugs at your hard and Mitchell won't be able to do something good did you see anything that we could do. It's very interesting when you talk to people in Washington. Most of people of Washington -- to. Two categories of activists -- wanna do something. Run category of people who came from the Bush Administration supported the invasion of Iraq. And I still believe it should -- succeed we were succeeding and it's only the Obama administration that is not. Terry another good policy that's what they'll. Debacle at the humanitarian. Need we need to intercede there -- responsible for protecting innocent and we need to get involved. Hearing you hit it in many industries are in dispute can record. So we -- like Q what can we do here what is achievable in the in the options or at least small. Four port -- faux news -- those those different -- with the saying. Mission. Goran and do something to minimize what's happening. Does it did when you talk to them off the record do you have to say do you really have you looked at long. Do you really truly think Americans. Looking back through rock in Afghanistan. And Vietnam in Bosnia. Recently but since September I think the administration was prepared to -- Syria. Only the popular opinion that rose up and that we are not we don't want it and then they back down. Clearly -- Washington left which -- the crisis that would be some sort of intervention. But I do think that popular opinion is -- break on Washington's actions at this time. The sun -- see that changing other than. Broad goodness forbid that we get hit. In the continental United States. Well you know who knows what will happen it did the other thing you hear all the time as. It's a disaster you know the mentality now is is is closer to Iran did to us that he is always one of the great surprising statement. Soon as we eliminated Saddam Hussein is policy -- was an Arab nationalist who's holding the country together as Europe's. He broke out into their. Confessional components Shia and Sunnis and the ethnic group of the Kurtz. And what happens is when. Three quarters are -- -- mean they actually are going to allies with this year at the right audience. And that was bound to happen as soon as we eliminated Saddam Hussein. And then. Our allies at least it's -- -- or cut pulled him. -- -- You know happens. In -- most Arabs in the -- in particular work. Very vociferous in opposition. To -- invasion of Iraq they did not agree with that that's that they gave us all about the world the web. We said you're going to go -- base in Okinawa will support you know we disagree with you. But they were against it. Interesting times -- takeovers break we'll come -- we're talking with doctor Graham government. -- -- scholar at the Middle East Institute in that listeners and Americans in particular. You veterans -- -- and this thing. Words your sacrifice worth. -- aggravated that double. Released an expert here a couple of months ago. When I sit I haven't seen war and then I had little pardon Vietnam vibrancy and war that we born yet he cut. Extremely upset because that was demeaning the memory and he. Efforts of veterans. And my point was not that is that. This country and we Americans don't allowed the winning global war anymore. We seem to always be all for getting into the war but the first time we see women and children being killed. We turn against it. And and we've got people. That are on the ground fighting for their lives of those people blah and we won't support them when live there or when they come home. Was the fighting Afghanistan. Iraq worked comfortably -- the wrong but I don't think we is there. Popular as we as Americans. Think very much about raw pure and certainly the middle he's simply weren't thinking let some -- about Afghanistan and not that we do proved too much sweat equity unit when we room there are -- If you -- about a we're gonna do it it just seems like the whole place is Aldrin. And one of the questions is what can come out of it can it be contained where. The Middle East who's killing itself or will spread. Where -- doctor Graham government with the drunks colored Middle East Institute. Doctor a look at the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousand. Refugees Jordan Turkey level and could this thing spread throughout the middle leaps. While I think in many ways it already has spread throughout the the least if that were not violent. Because as we've had this increasing identity by Obama's moving on Scioscia and therefore the communities are breaking apart and it is very difficult we'll see how they're gonna bridge those gaps and it looks like a long period of inter communal struggle throughout the region. Well I guess this morning and think it was it to -- that Libya. Little earlier telling -- oil shippers. Not to pull the ships and to a certain point where rubble of the opposition controlled -- mobile oil fields. Look at the problems with the -- only in Africa in the countries there. They're battling each other just I go back to were wrong and Saudi Arabia. Can they be pulled into it to where there's a larger. Confrontation that could affect us whether -- Oil exports are so -- that the. I think it is already effecting it because there's clearly a struggle in the region where Saudi Arabia is the primaries -- Our protagonist and he runs the primary issue protagonist. And the struggle is going on as before the series is being fought in Iraq. And it and it's and it's in his problem and it's going to be around for awhile back and there is no short term solution to the problem. More severe. More visible salary prince's. Two days ago. Told -- became Newton and -- the princes and Saudi Arabia. Look this fracking Joba and natural gifts from oil and the United States. There's could kill its future was will become so oil production and revenues. And we've got to. Divert supplies and we've got going different directions. During these conflicts. Affect. Raw and affect in particular Saudi Arabia. One financially. And number two of stability walks. Well clearly stability in the region and certainly the Arabian Peninsula has been based upon a large oil revenues and they've been able to. By the way out with dissident populations and by providing services and goods in but -- governments are supposed to do. If there weren't huge disruption in the market that and the Saudi Arabia's economy would tank and there's and there's not much oil production that would be a serious problem. But at this time I don't think I've not seen any oil projections that say Saudi Arabia will still up in the central role it does as being the -- one country that has the ability to expand and contract -- oil production to keep the supply and demand important balance out the report that the case we will not have revenue will not be the problem. Doctor if you will. Bear with me more talk to more liberal than you think. Veteran. Isn't in Algiers are appreciated the call. Dude. It's. All about eleven years old. Former solar it out the first the first point Tora. A little over 12 march. -- readers with a lot of direct action and it's lose. Or two -- and that outreach -- for the second problem. Wouldn't doubt 78. -- the with just beat that by there and Iraqi Army Corbett now Iraqi battalion. And just like the gentleman Reggie on. These people think in terms like we think country. In that we think we're Americans you know people media -- so an American or on the York new Yorker it's so are her property Americans. These peoples. In in Iraq. -- mean. -- or burst their aim. Then you know like it will community in their trot. And we were actually covered on Kurdish unit. In a memoir she would deploy it down so the fact that. Whatever. There was insurgency with -- at all -- knowledge and we thought that -- and are going to be also Nikola. And Erin. -- whips and deal speakers beat the Arabs and everything and yet they act -- -- Me the beat it -- Commodity parts did you -- does it in really risk their next for some audio area. And they would fight their pillow for their own area and he knew it would it would force fight. But it would injury with the terrorist expert anybody else and something else you -- Morse who. Erupt they're ready to where RP. For corruption shall we do business or you were that there were a couple of moniker in the unit. You treat him so bad that it would do you all in the pocket cash. And we tried to talk on things. Kicker what they were able to do with that but it you know what you put a hole it was you know on -- -- else. Be got so much money from the ministry the -- that keep their soldiers. You know each month and it just in which -- on by. Picket pocket -- and. Doctored director Britain's. Soria and we're short -- time. Thank you so much for the call doctors that that sound familiar there's an isolated next year. I think that the fairly general experience when you're dealing with the -- with the -- so it's quite different from -- I think. People like the previous caller ugly heroes for the sacrifice -- made for a country in the -- they put in what -- in what was it. He is very noble cause. But not well thought through but the leadership and that and that assessment of the situation we were not gonna get the Afghan change they've been for 2000 years. But we try to do that and -- Due to the year when you said the goal that's unattainable. We were attainable goal the difference between. The first pro abortionists and the sun is that the first President Bush when he went to liberate Kuwait in a very specific goal. He went to what he achieved there was pressure for him to expand the goal the move into Iraq he should know this. This is our goal and it was a success. That success that the United States the most powerful country in the region if -- they respect that. We expanded the goal later on. We could not attain those goals and therefore we lost the respect -- the region. Did we we -- -- about jokes. At least trying to hold -- by God's hands with the wrong when it comes soon. Removing their. Direction towards nuclear weapon. But I -- in -- -- -- every -- I think I read recently -- world -- -- working with them when it comes to Syria. Where they may be able to help and some former fashion there's liberal. Well we're still quite distance from Iran and effecting the Geneva conference they're talking about on Syria we have an. Iran and I invited to be officially they are because they're -- because we don't want that they -- but we want him to be helpful. To convince the Syrians not to act. The Syrian government has talked about active zone interest at I just don't think you run -- going to be helpful when we want them to. Do you think. Low level on raw Jordan could become Syria where it's it's all out civil war. I think Iraq is is very close to big -- civil war right now I mean it's it's it's. You know at the bit about terrorism and Iraq over the last year and I was increased most of it in several years it if Iraq is on the verge of being a terrorist. It's the civil war now. Lebanon as the if that is your prediction very nervous about government the Lebanese suffered their own fifteen years of civil war. And the last thing overwhelming majority of Lebanese Islamic into another struggle. But increasingly up there are individuals and small groups of people who want to -- Lebanon into the regional war and that's. Worrisome for the Lebanese. It do you see a scenario. Where things get bad and and you know regions. To bring Israel and cause them to take some. I mean it. Really. If they see their interest harm -- danger will act. But it you have been in many ways these internal struggles with in the -- world. -- The departure of Israel in the short term. Because there because Israel not the -- report is focused it's kind of like in Syria but when the rebels. Fighting each other particularly over power draw the Syrian government. But is that good for. The Syrian government Portland. Doctor always you humans from -- freedom and in the shoes you better have a happy new year in agreed. -- -- And actual talk with the -- probable by its president and foreign policy studies. At Cato Institute told the Victorian institute. Get their take home what's happening -- That if you get a chance to call me like -- A tool for remembers short and -- I would I would like to do. Outside Rome with Hitler and about. The culture. In the emily's. Would you go back again what's it worth it when you see what's happening today. Doctor just said -- look like it's just virtually answered the civil war all over. Like to take. Come right back bill and a bill brigades. Immoral.