Jan 30, 2014|
For the 3rd time in 4 years state governments’ expenditures exceed revenues. The main reason—the feds are cutting funds to the states. Are we still against big government? We were joined by Elliott Stonecipher, Demographer & Political Analyst.
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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
And always have tell this fields set -- up years ago now. Through three years. Maybe more. Covering election -- was particularly exercised about something that was corn grown in the for elections. Only serves -- for our political analysts. That we have been hearing all the big elections. Said to me basically go in Europe several of the wrong things troop orchard and are seeing more children being taken look at. Is sooner or later the threads you can start cutting off for cutting back on the money spigot to the states. In England that occurs so many states were and so we're troubled financial. That it is going to be you have a real problem. And over the years. We -- done a number of show because. Evidence of that and is all over the place. And every time we see more evidence of that we -- show cry and do. Let all of us understand where this might be going. The latest suit with the third time in four years state government expenditures. Or exceeding revenues. And main reason is that that's gotten back on the money and as usual. Hopefully -- educated me and if -- interest that you will also we have brilliant stonecipher are demographer and political analyst -- holy book conduct whose show is supposed to. Thank you -- it's always good to be here. I got a cure. List of the 2012 senses of government and they -- surveys. State government finances. Before we get into those -- -- well enough items in particular. Is this more evidence that we're going to get less money. I think it is and yet having said that the thing that is fascinating about this study is that of course we knew it is that we could possibly have. Did you -- -- predictably what was gonna happen. What did this show is that. In this study period in this that the Census Bureau does this summer -- state governments every five years. It took him a year 2013 to get the report done and get to data to so. It's between 2000. In 2002 world. And what we've learned is that -- hollows of stimulus. Spending. That is. The stimulus. President Obama's stimulus. We we have to -- fact year period. Where there was extraordinary. Spending. Didn't visit all fifty states and Africa of course. And what he did it. Is that it didn't just almost double the national debt. It also. Greatly increased. Spending. At the state level. Over twenty during the time period. And it increased. Debt. Among the states. About 23%. To. So you haven't explosions. This perfect storm of things that went wrong during the five year period. Credit bomb blew law. We had the beginning. And the essence the Great Depression we now call. President Obama elected to consecutive terms during this the period. 850. Billion dollars or thereabouts. Spit in the stimulus. Stimulus money governments which state governments it went to individuals. -- a lot of places. What we -- Is weak -- -- years we the people at our state levels we box five years to get past this storm. Where we'll get back into whatever it is that -- normally does. Net net net and what we did is we spent a lot and we've borrowed total loss to have to state level. Just as we do that the central. Good and I know this and wounded on this questions Iran. Why do we spend 20% more was there. When there's 850. Billion got distributed was earmarked for. Extra spending or who was it just here's an extra money do with the board will. It's been the criticism all along that the tip of plant being used is what happened that this stimulus. What structure so quickly as the Obama administration's years in office again. And it would get to a lot of things that were politically. To the president -- And that is that they were supposed shovel ready projects that we all do. Would reward quote on quote organized labor for a copy of the Democrat party of course. We do that a lot of the money went to individuals in various demands of government assistance that is included in the study a couple of a lot of talk in this study about -- urged it to. But the point it is in an answer to your question. Didn't study is saying. What ever is he would. We know now that we did not campaign normal economic recovery. From all of this spending. And at the state level and -- about what is an exception to this next statement. At the state level we spent a lot more. We raised taxes about 5%. We spent a lot more. And we raised a lot of debt I don't see how anybody looks at this study Garland and feels like what we did was getting us where we hope we were go. What we hope now is maybe it didn't happen in -- years and all of this -- in disrupting that'll give us better economic recovery now. This is pretty sobering stuff in this study needless to so. It's so bringing -- intrigued me for the last through -- years. Since should be becoming more of an issue and more people who interest we've got a quite a few people called holding on to talk about his. Basically -- your -- furor has a study of state governments. And what did you roses state government expenditures. Exceeded revenues for the third time in the last four years. A lot of that is because we have cutback in federal spending federal money coming our way. -- its own driver good prudent to blogger for political analyst memo warned me about two years ago -- has been with the tone it's terrible shows we've gone on this. Elliott before we get back to the bones of this report that -- from pollution of who will Truman Baton Rouge I appreciate your having an off. And this morning yeah. She lets say how important that helped a lot of us. People addresses issues to understand there's two arguing back and forth on the left and right. No matter what we were indoctrinated. Our DNA can change free market capitalism. And no matter how much Roche programs -- -- globalization. The fact of the matter. As we allowed American operations -- all sure both they are operations and labor. There are sharply eliminating. Tax base should be punished. And which they achieved that an ordinance says that the jobs and not coming back to -- that he. -- recognizing its demise of our country really deal. What we need. Actually tried to perhaps that is. Achieve those globalization global companies that are offshore and -- into our market. Shot before on the American and all of the other global rebuild our own structure our own people. Pension -- and people say we can't do that and a global market. What is that we could make our own talk show the question in Europe which who has shot on this saying. Problem solved. Chandler eyebrow -- appreciate -- -- A big part of this conversation. But Elliott. -- you quote he. Corporations here they just pick up and where in in the headquarters where there gonna go to make the most that. Well and I think what we know and -- the caller is talking causation. Incidents. Of the subject that we're discussing today we're a little bit further downstream in dealing with the government spending. The government revenue component of it but. Broadly speaking every time I think about how we have offshore. At how we have exported jobs offshore. To other countries. It's very clear that that the -- who did immediately jumps is. Tax reform and I think that's the answer to your point. If we don't incentive buys these corporations to be in the mirror lock stock and barrel. You get exactly what the powers described and exactly what we know it happened. And that that is all within. Our tax structure we know we'd pay a much higher percentage of corporate taxes and other countries especially those with which we most directly compete. We're doing and about it it's good policy. The partisans of not wanting to do attacked before. All right good let me bring in Rick I think he's -- really interest inclusion. Rican blood to welcomed -- rodeo. Yeah and gentlemen talking about the I guess it would be negative effects of the stimulus. What would what would have been in the alternative but to Panama. You know to -- legal entry six years ago. Know that it's a good question mobile happened that this stimulus hadn't been spent. You don't think that's a good point and actually I was not judging particularly weather was good order what I'm saying is very clear. That even though we did spanned 850. Billion dollars. Where we ended up laws state. Raised taxes and about the way it is a very interesting -- stuck in the between 2007. And 2010. Taxes went -- about 7%. -- relatively among the states. But I'll back up between 222012. Went up four point 1% so taxes during this period raced 5%. Spending. Aggregate all fifty states spending up 41%. Debt up 23%. Revenue was flat you know we went up. Or at the percent. So you have the state getting the stimulus money can't get local governments and did individuals. And all of that money managed to do what it managed to increase. Our national debt. From ten point six billion -- went in January 2000. 66%. Or lower than it is now we wait literally when. From ten point 6000000017. Point six billion up seven billion dollars that's 66%. And that period that's not exactly the same period is study this study period but it is within a year. And Mitt -- that's what we the -- but now you took out all the debt. Whether the national debt or -- look fifty states and what happened to them. We are now living the economic recovery that we got. Which is not much we know that and I think that means the answer to the call first question is. I don't know where we would have been without spinning the 850 billion dollars because there -- two options we didn't spend -- And we should not have state. Ended candidate which it covered a lot of it was really really aggressive or or good let's just call it. Recovery since the so either we just in the wrong way or we didn't do enough and let's remember. That's what people like Paul Krugman were arguing when the federal government -- that 850 billion that it wasn't nearly enough. We don't have the intricate day yet but what I'm saying is this report shows nobody can be happy. What what it was we do it I don't know which that we're. And and the but the bottom line is we are seeing a pretty students have cut back. And the amount of money that the -- -- sending our way -- Yes and sequestration. Proved that and I think there will be much more of that. And that to me is what we are back to our original discussion Garland. What we know it is we have managed to do all of this sent this big big problem -- particularly in LA. We've got a call and we bullet law. The -- it is still increasing. Absolutely faster -- we can count at all. Blair will that hand and how can it mean anything except. The federal government will cut spending. It will float to the states. What we're seeing here is the states raised taxes and we know local governments did. So I think what you and have discussed in the beginning. It still logically where this is go. -- of their raise taxes to -- mile than they won't view move anymore. Then after that we're gonna have to cut back from. And that is exactly where Louisiana is it's interesting to me as I read this study Garland that we're and one of the -- exceeds what that looks like. The -- -- 2012. Census. Of governments. Finance survey of state government finances. So footed drive when you get down to the go to of the -- and that state government expenditures. Exceed revenues for the third time Campbell has for years in this brings back the compensation. I've had many times with -- Elliott stonecipher who's a demographers and and can get down to went from really important. In these type of studies also political analyst. And we've read this conversation for many years before we get into the latest from what it means who has -- short term -- term. Let me go to -- have been holding on for a long time -- Euro and governor bill appreciate your older. Good warned that there -- these particular Carl truly enjoy and get together and heal the relations. Are -- and I know layer on that can give you an example of accumulated debt for instance the local government. Did you weren't presented by its parent where -- A few years ago the long term debt was about 24 million dollars. And as we speak the day it's increased to 222. Million dollars for the population of about 24000. So there's another layer of debt that's sort of the -- so that's that's really astounding to me. Absolutely and it's a great point now appreciate hearing specific numbers and and one of the things that were learning is that. -- quick floor when we start hearing of those demands of numbers that the locally or local level. -- the state level by the way that we look at unfunded pension liabilities and I think that's one of the plays were working as planned. -- real real one of the places where we aren't real real hot -- go forward bit. The real point from the powers is excellent this doesn't even deal with what happened at the local level. We're simply looking now it states that get between the federal government. What it. And the local government and just look for five years what happened at the state we know. Necessarily. Flows through to local government and that's exactly what the caller is to -- Creditor America -- went in their thoughts. This portion. Don't minute -- shows on all my goodness Europe is falling part there of the Gordon and -- depression. Four of the major countries weren't huge. It's getting -- on excluded from races. Now we -- That's actually doing a whole lot better in the -- doesn't seem to be born it is. And then we hear you 2000 -- on the verge of the job that depression and and everything's collapsing. And here's you know 140 billion. And -- well we little bit more than we took and in our expenditures are higher but the sort stock markets higher than has been quote. It is is this just the rise and and ball blocks of the economy. Worldwide worries that it is. Just seems like commonsensical. He is gonna get much worse. And then all of a sudden you're actually it's not that. -- they can instant. It and I think that's very very much Wear and development program at the first of the pages of this report. It's very clear to me that no matter what we hear from central government and I don't care where in the world that central government is. We hear mainly a conversation. Daily. About how the financial markets are responding. Whatever it is that is going well. Is -- -- crisis. Crisis is measured. We don't here right president step up and talk about the numbers you and I are talking about in the context of whether doctors. Approaching crisis. We see the stock market's reaction to something that happens. And it turns into an awareness on our part of some of the moving parts. In that context. To that things are very topic. Happened as we panic and then decided things were not so bad. Is that we have -- get to a point that the free world has never seen. We don't have a clue this is gonna end up. We know today is there we understand that you can't increase America's debt one example but in order to. It literally. An 84 and a half year period of time. And not think that things are still. Not good. It can't -- -- there's no way and yet we have a and it's blue army of economists in America telling the slope we -- our own money. The deficit doesn't matter. And that's literally what they're telling us. Common sense -- what demand. That it be true there's got to be a place where these musical carriers right now music stops and who's not in the chain here. That the rest of that story and to -- Garland is very simple what pieces army and they can make this deal. Which they played for about this and I think there's no question. We have not had to -- recovery. From India that. When we talk about -- we've got to understand if we had a real and back to economic recover. From what started happening in 20072008. The debt would be 66%. Higher. We wouldn't. Have these state level or local level problems. We would have a true economic recovery that is rising tide that lifts all boats. That's what never happened. And now we learn that wanted to based measurements of the of the currency of recovery. It's also those -- and that's the unemployment rate. Some -- now starting to understand. Look at the unemployment rate sounds better. But the number of people who stopped looking for a job and left the job force in America alone. Is that category. We we don't even contemplate what that means but it certainly suggest once again. If that national government is not focused on a real and vibrant and I would today really almost red iPod economic recovery. Deep underlying negative numbers are not gonna get better. If you're running GDP it's four and a half percent increase every year we will get this -- relatively quickly. We're wondering however Garland at this point can't America do anymore. It's 3% about the best we can do or can't -- find -- way to openness 24 and a half and sat. Tell him what what does this mean for us if we keep chugging the wall where we'll go we had the keynesian liberal economist -- they be saying well you made a mistake. Not printing more than 840 billion we told you wasn't enough. If we have the conservative. At UConn responded precinct. -- -- way too much you should have never done it in the first place. If we just Dave where we are what what happened so laws we have. You were federal dollars right in doesn't that mean. Will have laughs don't. Yes it does mean that -- there's no way around net and about a -- like to wait you you mentioned what. The keynesian. Would be saying in in participating in our conversation today and what the conservatives would be saying and I think that's an interest in the coast. To some extent both awry and to some extent both were all we ought to listen to -- -- to book in truly me. We spent 850. Billion dollars in -- The process of doing man and a bunch of other things were still doing we -- and the national debt but to sever. Where is now this as one year of all of America's. Output. -- things seventeen and a half trillion dollars. We didn't have. An economic recovery and that's where the conservatives would -- again. And I find it very interesting -- columns. As if we are being blessed by the economic. That's what America has at the same time we're trying to figure out what to do about it. If we plan now that we have an absolutely extraordinary. Expansion. -- oil and natural gas in America that we can actually be energy independent. But twenty point. Now remember two years ago we stopped at number winced when that date was 23. Not 22 point. We had no idea. That all the way that America's economy has been restrained because we didn't have enough energy. Are being removed as we speak in about -- Garland. They are we are already. At that point. In the gulf states and America we in fact preparing a whole lot less for energy and Leo part of the country already. So it's all about economic expansion. I think it took the stimulus. To keep us from falling off the clean up when the credit bomb blew up. But I think the stimulus was not wells. The policy at the trigger an economic recovery. But that's okay. Because we could have -- now and we know to look at all the ways that energy independence for the record that and it expansion. And they attribute tremendous reduction in -- absolutely. All right quick question pool -- Games in Metairie home of cellular appreciate the call. Thank you early puberty and mr. stoked by a question on a web site use it an article of yours was published on the web site four with. Now dot com about a week ago. And it's kind of hard for me to understand. What you're trying to say here. He's very knowledgeable obviously it is are we we still losing people now -- year. But at a slower rate it is the bird. Rate increase were still sitting in natural increase in burst with. -- is that rate did you kind of sure at this point it's really kind of -- field might not just an optimist and think mr. Number one. We are now net negative again and it -- In terms. Out or out migration of our population. Net negative meeting rooms and more the world overtaken it. Yes we're losing it and after all the Katrina. And reader returnees. Kept -- In -- supposed positive category. That has now played out and in state to state migration domestic we turned negative again. We look positive in two other categories. The traffic of Mexicans that the president has -- term not mine. The traffic of Mexicans into an Al -- and it's blowing back and forth that looks like it could be adding about 3000 people. We don't know how long that'll last -- also net positive in a strange new categories such as bureau as about military deployment. I don't think those are real people I think you're -- military based traffic in and out during the draw downs in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Picture is that Louisiana is now below 20000. People a year in its margin between births and -- We have stayed above 20000. For a very very long time when he announced more -- and a after the after Katrina the Euro after work week we wrote about 185. Now we've dropped below 20000. Ought to more or less permanent basis apparently about 191000. We have such as serious out migration problem it was over 600000 people the last 32 years that have left here. It -- our -- over death -- naturally increase. Two copper that law we are now losing our margin. Of natural inquiries. And we've earned net negative in the heart in the real numbers optimistic. -- migration. Those are -- The public policy and losing and hands to respond to -- our governor instead we don't even have a problem he literally says. He -- the out migration problem and all of this. Elliott to for -- -- that I can here for more news shows. Do you -- called the Q as always it's always a learning exporter -- and -- shark -- here.