WWL>Topics>>2-3-14 1:10pm Angela: on the Orleans elections

2-3-14 1:10pm Angela: on the Orleans elections

Feb 3, 2014|

Angela recaps the weekend's elections with political analyst Dr. Ed Chervenak of UNO.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Well one weekend a Super Bowl I still cry for Peyton Manning. And a New Orleans election that put -- land drew back in the mayor's office. A couple of City Council people back in their chairs. -- also left several interesting run offs for another election march 15. Here to talk about all the politics of the day political analyst doctor Ed Sherman act our friend. And director of the UNL survey research center who also spent many hours with Garland on Saturday night. We're gonna get to a permanent chair here's what. We are very very grateful for you being here thank you for having me first -- any big shocker races. Well. I mean it was a -- that the mayor won in the primary. But I was kind of surprised spine. His 64%. Vote. I mean that's what we found in the quality of like -- is about 6% job approval. But I figured with the campaign or be some erosion of support in adamant about fifty acres. But 64%. Showed that. People are very happy with his stewardship of the city. Adam and so. It'll be interesting to see how he approaches the restaurants. Or who work for the people he's endorsed. And so I figured it bodes well for the -- it shows the city wants cut unions. If someone and is really strong is Michael -- bears when he was -- legitimate candidate. Has its own set of credentials. If that he had not existed or somebody -- just knew coming out would. -- Landers and 70%. Well he probably would have meant he could have -- Marc Morial 79%. From so I mean it would have been more coronation than anything else. But. Don't judge that there is -- Iran could campaign. Credible candidate. He just had the unfortunate circumstance of a very limited time for him two -- first first to build up his name recognition. I mean everyone in the middle class knows who he has. But most voters probably conduct and so your first job is to increase your name recognition out there. And then get your message out. That you know change is needed and I think that was another difficulty that he faced. Was given the general sense of optimism among citizens in the city it was hard to come out say. -- things are just on the wrong track -- you know and we need change so I think. That was really really difficult task for him but. I said he he ran his campaign. Talents that the mayor and and gave them their competition and that's important you know. The mayor needs to be held accountable for his record. It's not a perfect record obviously they're going to be flaws and so you want someone out there. Challenging him and then going for the voters and then they decide it just appeared that. So much and found. That nurses campaign was. Style maybe even over content it was. I'm a listener he's not I'm a person that brings people together and resolve things he has not. It resonated perhaps with some of the black community. Yeah certainly. That was his main attempt was to get African Americans to coalesce around his message. Because. I mean and he knew that. Land Jews expressing its Landers enjoyed significant support in Africa Americans. Community -- 62% of the vote for years ago -- 49% of the African American vote just camera so there was some erosion there. And so his goal was in fact it's -- to keep that number below 40% but he was an entity that if he was pumped them up and we might have seen a run. You brought up of course that that was such a short window of time from the time that. He stepped down from his judgeship to. Declaring and then after run run run during Christmas. And other events but. If he had given thought. Way ahead. And could've had some things lined up. Is there anything he could have done do you think that would have made him even even stronger content. Well. If you -- got out earlier and you know made -- -- system and run for mayor. That would have given him that the opportunity to give his name out there. At a minimum you need 80% name recognition just for voters to pay attention to you. Am I don't think that he was able reach that level and so getting out early and getting that name recognition up would have been important. And then people say OK I know you or your credible candidate what's your message. And then they're more going to be much more receptive to what he's saying as opposed to someone who's just. You know. Qualified on the very last day. The -- said that the campaign. -- challenging the mayor well the first question is is who are and so that's that was the main stumbling well getting the police. The police unions on line was big. That was big but we you have to remember that. The reforms that are coming down on the police department there are from the consent decree is not coming from the -- -- is coming from the federal government. And so that gave. Mayor Landrieu some cover that look this is -- me misses. Being dictated by outside forces. That being said. You know that's just not going to be enough you know in the united that the police in my signing at the firemen aside and they're both in a dispute with the mayor. -- comes down to voters. -- -- you know lot of people felt well some of these groups are against the mayor that's that's what we need what you really need is to get out there and resonate with voters and that it's what was the real difficulty. You know there's been a lot said that he would be a real contender -- it would be real contender for governor. And he has openly says that he totally intends to complete this term. However that is attempting tempting thing absolutely. You know amount -- these term limited he can't be held accountable. Four years from now so if he decides to change his mind and run for governor. And it's you know he -- say well here's a good opportunity you know this this is my best opportunity I'm gonna take it. And you know say for example he's he says yes some and fulfill my term. Then the signs okay. I'm gonna run for governor well then say loses -- at the end of his term voters could if we can have term limits voters to hold him accountable for the decisions. But since he is term limited and is now not accountable to normal as voters anymore. He could easily run for governor and no real -- repercussions so if it lost -- still the mayor yes OK that's it. That answers that. Where do you think he needs to focus now. I think he just needs continued focus on a crime obviously that's the number one issue communicated by voters. That. And that he needs to deal with economic development and although the mayor doesn't necessarily have a lot of say over. Education he needs to use that bully pulpit to. Push for more educational reforms. He is that you think about education economic development there crime they're all intertwined -- at the work and all three things he can't work on one issue. And and say okay permanent deal with crime well unless you do with the economic development education at the same time. You're not going to be able to deal with the crime for a so -- got a full plate. He's got a very full plate. Please stay with this we're gonna continue our talk with the doctor Ed Sherman act and we're gonna talk about that very. Interesting. Race per share. I'm Angela under the WL. Well we're back with doctor Ed Sherman that come with Ulanova was always here to help the sort of dissect what the election. Was all about and done and it was a big election it was a big election because it's an important. Time in our lives and it's for the next four years and again of course we know that mayor Mitch Lander rule Maine but we do have some runoff -- gonna start with that but before we do that. And get into the sheriff's race we have a caller Linda from New Orleans east. -- Hello. Good. Colleague -- the original holding. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- And Aaron indeed I mean I. Am. As and it it. Always. -- -- -- -- I am. Like -- I. Don't like yeah. Come to be honest with you I can't really answer that question you have to direct that question to the clerk of criminal courts election division. They're the ones who. Deal with early voting also the office. The registrars office over at City Hall. I never heard that -- Mean there's always been a history of moving polling places at the last minute to use as a way to this is that early write -- for early going but I mean. And just especially at -- yet are still long and in the south of the south had a long history of moving polling places at the last minute or making polling places very difficult to get to. -- Terrible. You know. What. So at an -- -- bit. Flat in the right and apparently don't. And -- adding I'll keep an -- Gary. Why I get data. I want it done. And do you like a little bit. It. Isn't very. I think people. Paying. What is. That I'm in campaign. -- -- And always. Be that might have -- it -- the act and act. Linda tell you what we will absolutely check into that and I'm sorry that I didn't know about it attack. We will check into -- you bring up a very good point and I really appreciate your calling so you never hesitate to call. Very good point and we will check into that. Let's jump over to the sheriff's race because that was a -- and continues to be a big game and it's the two guys who have been running it for together forty years -- as a. Decades since. What. I think most people expected that there would be a runoff between. Share Grossman and answer -- no real surprise there. I was surprised by the margin. Between. Grossman forty plus minutes but -- 49%. And food in about 2829%. That to me was real surprise I figured it would be much much closer between the two. That being said you have to give the advantage obviously this year scotsman in the runoff -- right there 49% he does need 50% plus one. It's I'm wondering whether. Sheriff Foley's campaign what they're talking about today in their deliberations. You know I don't know share food and I don't know his inner console but. You even play one think it may be about conceding. I mean you've got about a you know Tony mar twenty point margin need to make up. If the campaign has the potential to be very ugly very divisive. And very expensive. And you know. It is -- forty willing to do that. Two win this office or you know look at the reality of Grossman at 49% to say. You know he's almost there in fact initially had called the race more room right. But so you know. If -- Thomas. Really made almost 20% 19%. Quoting would have to get every single one of his vote and -- there was a sense and this is a generalization. And do nothing factual but. But the -- Thomas who had his own set of credentials mean not to be diminished this man. 28 years in the police department in the running a security -- for soon though. But the an awful lot of this vote were people who just couldn't stand either Marlon assessment or -- Absent so are they going to not vote. You know that's a good question. And you know he may come out -- endorse one of the two candidates. I don't know how much weight that endorsement will have. One of the things we were talking about off the air was you know a lot of people thought well this is. There's really no alternative in the shares -- I'm not -- -- But we found though is that there were only about 1000 fewer people who voted in the shares raced in the mayor's race so there was no real roll off. So people. Did cast a ballot. In the shares race he didn't avoid it in my expectation is that people would -- just upset with. Both candidates upset with that the tenor of the campaign. But people know me they express themselves in this year's earnings. That's very interesting if you would think in the next few days perhaps this is what the -- campaign is looking at. Or they'll come out and say you know what we're ready to fight to right right. The -- that could be very well be. But if they do then we can expect. More of the same as in terms of the negative campaigning in. And -- -- -- potential mudslinging. And and you know back and forth Grossman. Campaign will be attacking. Forty for his roll in some of the post-Katrina. Prosecutions. Might bode will come back and harassment on the conditions of the jail. To mean do we really -- six more weeks. So that's the questions that both campaigns really need to pass them so. Well you know. Both of them have ammo her desk for for the other yes it just how long do we want to listen to it will be tune it out and well. Right but I think when you look at the numbers at the he just from from the perspective spokes of the challenges serve food you've just got to you know look. Be realistic about those numbers in terms of being able trying to get every other vote that Desmond did -- OK stay with this and of course if you have any questions for Ed Sherman act please give us a call 260187. -- We're gonna come back and talk about some of the City Council run -- And the Ralston talked about those who won. Al right now let's go to the newsroom and date -- And Sherman act -- Leno political analyst is our special guest today is we talk about this weekend's election. We've talked about the mayor we've talked about the upcoming sheriff run off you bring up a very interesting point. About what time Charles floating and his team might be thinking of with -- -- from getting almost 49% of the vote. It can be what is it another six weeks -- march 15 president it's weeks. Lots of money lots of time lots of energy is it possible. In life anything is possible. But you know so we got to speak in terms of probability. And the probability that he can make up that twenty point margin in overtake this man is very very well. Well let this go on to the corner which was also very interesting race I think. Because the man who held it for decades. Step down and it was an opportunity for some new blood and interestingly. Mike McKenna who has not run for other offices Saturn and this is known. Takes the lead. Against Jeffrey Rouse and Jeffrey Rouse of course has worked end. The sheriff's office. Four over ten years. I think as a contract workers and sign up here he works I think the mental health on the mental health side -- the -- -- very important part of it yes and down. A little bit of a surprise that to -- a lot of who was so highly respected within the medical community had been. Just step down this past weekend as head of the Louisiana. Medical society and run the New -- medical society anyway so now we have a runoff. And just your thoughts on the. Well it's going to be very interesting contest doctor McKenna as mentions a perennial candidate and this kind of for most elections was considered to be out there. But he was able to kind of rehabilitate himself. This time around than some of the accusations he had been making in previous elections about the coroner. You know missing body pieces even as famous and with missing body pieces. Basically he was basically almost speaking the truth that there was some. Kind of strange and weird things going on the coroner's office and so. By the Fed by the very nature that make him -- credible candidate that you know he wasn't just out there making these wild accusations that what he said. Was most likely taking place there so. That really help I think generate support. A mom and that Jeffrey Rouse who is we citizen house at the coroner's office right now on the mental health side. Asking for the job. Com. You know the question is is whether the fact that he's already in the offices this is. Making him suspect for voters do they really just want someone completely from the outside coming in taking over. Or you know we're we're gonna see I -- six weeks from now whether. That's gonna play a role in the choice or. You know the he's been there but he wasn't connected with what was going on on the other side of the corners office and will place him in there because his experience. In the corners office hopefully never have to go. But it isn't an office that. You know one drops by and checks it and yet now we hear what deplorable conditions. Even pre Katrina and just horrendous a -- that situation I did an interview with both time doctor around Sinatra blogger doctor McKenna couldn't come. So was the two of them and they told me which I never knew that. You know the corners office used to be underneath the courthouse right and it was a dungeon. And and just an awful place and that is where women who had been raped would go to be tested. -- that just was so add to the insult. Now of course they don't do that they taken in the medical situation there's a team of fabulous nurses who do this. But that that was allowed to exist I think is. Horrendous and the more we learn the more horrible it became right they are going to have a new facility that's a given that's gonna happen. And but it's also the need for modernization. And modernization of thoughts. Yeah yet modernization yes certainly moving -- corners office you know he's glad the nineteenth century and and pushing it into the 21 century. And so I guess that's what's really gonna come down to -- who the person is the gonna move that corners office or to make it -- a professional office. You know that. Feel that there there up to standards. They're classifying -- correctly. Noted that fudging the numbers in -- -- you know how people died and so. Since may be one of these offices where. We're gonna have to see increased transparency. Based on. You know some of the deplorable conditions and practices that we found in the past. We'll stay with us when we come back we're gonna talk about the run offs of Cynthia hedge morale and Jason Williams and Jackie Clarkson and -- Ramsey right after this. We are again joined by Ed Sherman act from UN no we're talking about this past weekend's election. And out they're too big run offs on the City Council the first between Cynthia hedge morale and Jayson Williams then of course is for the at large position. And give me your thoughts. Well. This is a study in contrast. Com Jason Williams who has run for district attorney before. So he's developed some familiarity with voters. He is. Basically his approach is plank is that the City Council needs new blood a new generation of leadership. So. If he wins. That with he injured percent as. And and you guys in town we would basically be seeing this generational shift on the City Council. Since you know the fact that he in and effort Germany were able to hold -- -- morale. Under 50% I think is significant. Is now it's just Jason Williams and Cynthia and morale. -- -- contrast. And over and you know. I I get a sense that there's some push back against Penn tomorrow and also Jackie Clarkson. Kind of skirting the spirit of term limits. You know these these are the two individuals -- in a runoff. Who have lots of experience that they can bring to bear but. Voters say look you -- term limited. You know we -- we need new blood don't don't try and moved to another seat in -- so you can -- City Council. Most certainly Jackie would argue. The mayor came out and Bender Sheehan says I'm leaving them retiring I've done that and I loved it and thank you. And he's saying let's meet on the river -- to -- every -- so she can go that simply hedge morale. Argument of courses. Let let me finish the job to we've accomplished a lot and I bring years of veterans thinking of and the ability to get stuff done. Absolutely and that's a good argument. But. Voters. Supported term limits. You know I'm not a fan of term limits but for some reason voters are and they take it. That seriously. Oh you've been term limited wires still there and -- in this and the counterargument to that is well you know you're you're. Your relationship the stronger with the insiders than it is with your constituents. And the challenges are gonna flip them and saying look. That's you know that's what happens we become entrenched you become an insider and that's where your relationships. Vote me in my relationship will be with few constituents not the insiders I'll be your voice in the city cut until -- That's right how to make it let's talk about Jackie Clarkson and ninety grams because that was sent. Very tight race very tight race and we can expect. Run -- to be very very tight races well. I mean you mentioned that since the mayor and and that -- to two run but image she cassette now you know she could just. Faded into the sunset and -- and spent time -- all taken care of her husband. Com and so again I think this and this. Pro term limit sentiment might be there. Now. What we see in the interest exe or some countervailing. Forces. It's. Majority African American district after. -- redistricting. 55% African American. So that gives Ramsey the advantage because if we look at the Trent. And trend in the primary it was a it was a racially polarized cast doubt about it. So being an -- majority African American district that gives the advantage to Ramsey. However. Turnout in the African American precincts as much slower than in the non African American precincts that skews the advance to -- So. This races are gonna come down turn out who can get their voters to the polls on Election Day in. So. And it's gonna have to be Clarkson on the West Bank that. -- defeated Clarkson on the West Bank 48% to 43%. So I think that's where she's gonna have to focus her campaign. And get her voters to the polls. 24 vote difference between two women. That is very close and I'm probably the next morning they're all calling their friends did you vote could look up to you all I needed just thirteen. Of them. -- makes long distance of -- it's interesting because they're both from the west -- and -- live on the West -- right so you're saying the West Bank will -- -- West Bank will be lucky. -- Some people did when out right Stacy had. Yeah and very easy easy victory coasted to victory in I think most people expect that she represents reform. Transparency. Community outreach she's worked very hard on that. During her time in office. And she's also not afraid details -- mayor I think people respect for that. EG green on the other hand he represented the past. You know I just don't think he could shake off his association. With disgraced former congressman William Jefferson. And so I there was no real surprise that she and Susan -- had some competition but she walked away with it she did walk away. It was it you know those were probably some of those interest in forms -- the district eight. Candidates. To award -- date to paso. Even Gordon. But they just weren't able to generate. Any. Energy or any resources. Earning real name recognition. And so again you know with this very short timeframe. And with lots of noise and distractions as you pointed out you know need to get to Christmas but you know holidays and the saints. You know David -- announces. We get. Ice storm ice storm we get the -- in trial all this is going on in these people are trying to. You know breakthrough and they're just not able to do so. And last Jared percent yes. He just squeaked in. So he's kind of this new guard that I think people are looking for. Even though there's some concern you know that he is. And you know tied very closely to the -- families he worked for. Council member -- to moralis as her chief of staff. And so there's a question of his independence and a but -- younger nine. Lots of energy. -- lots of ideas. He's very familiar with the district so you know you know its own you know -- -- -- it's important district he's very familiar with that he knows what needs to be done. So all and I'm I live and I live in that district I'm hoping does -- good job. We'll stay with -- we're gonna wrap up our look at this past weekend's election if you have any. Any questions or comments give us a call -- 260187. -- financial on WW well. Mitch Landrieu is still our mayor Stacy head is still are around at large. City Council person Susan injury will sit and council district -- again James -- and district he and a newcomer Jared percent. Also will be there but we do have some run -- and were talking about primarily the sheriff's office the coroner and the 21 at large -- one non. District seat. What are they have to do to win -- another short period of time getting people's attention is now with that money. Right I mean again. That's been the hardest part of this campaign is getting people's attention. Especially after we've gone through the primary. People are -- okay we've done and we went cast ballots. Now we got to go do it again. And so that's what candidates need to remind voters that hey it's not over we're gonna have another election so it's going to be about getting people's attention and then. On Election Day it's about mobilization that's about the ground game it's giving your people there because. This -- is Saturday it was on Election Day was only 30% turn now. I don't know that's you know if you include early voting was 34 point 5% turn out. So we can expect lower turnout for the runoff and so that means those these campaigns are gonna work have to work very very hard in in just. Getting out they're knocking on doors. Making phone calls and making sure their supporters show up with polls. 34 point five minutes with the right hands and senator that's early voting and Alex enabling it just you know work better than it. Well if we look at the lasts. 2010 it was about 32% turnout and in 2006 it was about 3839%. -- I thought we were 50% and above all time only time we reached a 2% is a presidential election. -- Now I'm not. A hundred -- heard are -- -- else say that 47% turnout for Saturday night just this kind of curious as where he got that number because. There's every indication that turnout would not be about 35%. Such a beautiful today I thought no excuses. Past the freeze. But I such a beautiful it was a beautiful day -- that actually leads to higher turnouts. You know there's one study out there that shows forever into. Rain you know turnout decreases on one or 2%. You know so people have done studies on this in terms about whether -- and beautiful weather brings people out the vote but. I just feel that the that was that was a really. A call to you know throw. Through all the bombs when his -- as a relatively optimistic mood out there and so for they were certainly content with the mayor gave him stamp of approval. And you know. Some of the incumbents were elected in October and it's in some of the more. Was a popular but experienced candidates. Are able to hang. Why can't thank you enough for our experience political analyst doctor Ed dot Sherman act. You make life easy and up -- -- -- greatly appreciated I hope people will stand by because the next hours can be very different. It's do you believe you can be addicted to wealth.