WWL>Topics>>2-24 9:10am Tommy, global warming/climate change

2-24 9:10am Tommy, global warming/climate change

Feb 24, 2014|

Tommy talks to Bob Henson, a science writer at NCAR, about global warming

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

We welcome and I guess now Bob Hanson. Who is science -- the national center upper atmosphere research you're in cars otherwise known he's a meteorologist. And he's the author of the upcoming book the thinking person's guide to climate change good morning Bob. It worked out that's clay at quite an impressive -- me get there can you tell us what the weather's going to be like the monogram. Which collected data that was there from article last year network behind the this year I don't know about what didn't. It's interesting that we have theories on and on that you know -- disputing anything you're saying or green with anything you're saying I just think it's interesting. That we have theories on him on both sides about climate change but nobody can tell us what the weather's going to be like in ten days. Well that's I think that we can say that in July it's going to be hotter than January right I mean that's -- it would argue that it's because we know that the the dynamic power particularly on the side and so forth and those to the physics that tell -- that it can be warmer than fifty years it is now. We can't say on July 23 2051 it's going to be warmer -- like -- -- now that. But we do note of the basics of have you mr. works and that -- we just can't predict the weather -- -- -- -- so big you know is it with you but let's get serious here and talk about. I don't we wanna jump in May be the emails I gotten text that I -- as you users and a couple of cortex. Where's -- global warming now we're under those people if you. Well I can understand what it would deal independently with sweater in the central eastern United States and and -- -- candidates. What's interesting is the US is really just 2% of the whole globe if you look at the surface of the planet. And believe it or not the December January even February have been among the warmest globally on record. Of people -- the Winter Olympics felt that you can and have relatively mild places with even warmer than normal. California's just had record high atop the charts in January Australia. Brazil albeit at a record heat -- defend yourself. The club has not been particularly cold the last couple markets and that's where that one place that's been called in where we live so. We have to take the longer you when you look at. Quite a -- I didn't in terms of long view we have time much in the whether -- local meteorologists Carla Redondo -- I think is the man on it comes you know Karl. I know what I'd Nokia as the summer weather channel when you that's. The only always with us and and we're happy to have -- an arm and just what do you -- wondering. You wind when -- gives the temperatures or whatever and he says you know record was set the record low was an understatement. -- 1958. The record high was set on this date in 1957. Is is that point does that point to the it was mean temperature and climate nor our long range projections as you -- Well you can you record that late into the daily record daily life daily lows could we have about a hundred years of those in the United States and that's an adjusting work recently I dissident aren't actually that our researcher at the weather channel -- diplomats looking -- changes -- how -- records hype America let's get in the year. And there's thousands of each month so if you have good number for statistics and it turned out. The last decade we've had about twice as many record electric -- on average now the past year 2013 we actually did have. Slightly for a couple of advertisements. For -- twenty years that's happened that's a trend overall it is more record high. It's like summit taking steroids in baseball player. Of the market -- necessarily at -- moment every every type of data and it takes to strike out that when you look at the long term they're gonna have more. You know -- greater batting average of somebody's not taking. Tonight a -- or colonizers to say Bob you know more about this and you've forgotten more than I'll ever know and and I'd like to open up the phone lines if you don't mind taking some questions we're -- -- good to 60187 Neitzel 38668890878. A bothers science writer the national center for atmosphere resurgent our meteorologist. And author of the upcoming book the sink in person's guide to climate change now so many times. This gets politicized on both sides of its so we'll take your questions we'll keep it to science. And when we comeback if the news in the second half hour will talk to James Taylor he's a senior fellow for energy and the environment. Policy for the heartland institute he doesn't believe in climate -- global warming climate change or global warming. John Kerry's secretary of state said not acknowledging global warming is the same as people believing the world is flat. Tell me what you think if he had any questions for our guest we'd be glad to entertain them and we come back under the WL I Tommy Tucker -- WL 919. Referring to the many emails and text that -- is the polar vortex. Was close and bridges and roads here and continues to I think another one common. And so many Uga next year but in the northeast a lot of guys and ladies wrote in says global warming my rear end. It's thanks Al Gore global warming and so -- But we're talking about -- right now science -- the national center upper atmosphere research meteorologist author of the upcoming book. The thinking person's guide to climate change told you earlier about article -- -- and that listed six different types when it comes to. Climate change and I gave him the first in the alarmed -- the final one number six's the dismisses. Pages say it's a hoax scientists and making up data UN conspiracy York as I just mentioned Al Gore and his friends when he gave rich. So if you are a dismissive I would love to hear from -- and and Bob Hanson will answer the questions you handle our talk about what effects are. And maybe in contrast which actually believe and number to call is 260187820386. Exceed 89087. In. I guess for the next half hour James Taylor. That he doesn't believe that humans are causing any type of climate change in other words he thinks they are in throughput genetic. Right the use that word right Jordan. You know -- shut up. Let's -- Let's go back to Bob Hanson Bob I hit this articles tells me 97% of scientists. Agree that something's happening is that an accurate number. It's hard to think that number that that it is India I think -- it certainly the slightest sign though it would be on the order of 97% more I mean you know you. You have walked out there who believe HIV doesn't cause aids. Looked -- there -- believe that -- cigarettes don't cause cancer you can always buy an expert to take an opposing view even on things that society agreed we need to act and so. I think that that would put -- tricky is that there are aspects of pocket change where there is debate and very legitimate debate and after temple one of those is will there be more hurricanes and the consensus is actually probably that the number particular detailed that in the intensity level that. That they're actively searching that area there is very active research on whether changes the Arctic sea -- full effect that led to weather and -- -- -- -- these polar cortex kind of winters and there is legitimate and very Activision 5% net so. That's fine it's not settled on those topics that I think it is pretty much settlement effects that carbon dioxide it's one of our atmosphere where we're adding that. I I don't think anybody wants to cull Lynn. But they will text in their collections and I'll indices in a global warming is a money making scam Klein and his cynical cyclical rather different. And slipped didn't -- -- after the ice age we all die anyways so why talk about it. As for CO2 CO2 footprint volcanoes regulate that globally. Well certainly there's the cycle of all types of the sun comes -- with Pakistan we get more every day we go up at night. Summers warmer than winner and there are cycles no matter what time period you look at their cycle interceptor. What we're doing it on top of the cycles were adding a long term change our world community evidence. -- -- I don't think any legitimate by the -- -- -- deny that your test cyclic patterns including yeah I think it's just. I think in terms of the money making aspect that's. That's all about how you respond to climate change and that's much much different than the looking -- climate change science something. There -- many different approach to undertake to dealing with pundits think you could say well. Let's just adapt to -- and so many -- that or let's. Just try to limited by reducing domestic production at the premiere or lifting a mix of the order. Or none of the if you could not worried about it that but that's a separate discussion and science and I think throughout -- that it completed. Yeah I remember in statistics it seems like they were type one and type two errors type one is where. I think something's wrong and you don't do anything about it type two is where nothing's wrong and you change the whole system and I guess when it comes -- a type one error. If in fact it is happening -- then we don't really have a back up do we sit DF -- side of caution when it comes to. -- global warming greenhouse gases at setter in keeping the planet and habitable. Will be there is only one planet living on that but it would drive him and I think it's there's ways still to reduce carbon dioxide that makes sense and in fact -- many in the -- and renewable energy is an example of that and president makes sense -- ago -- that direction as much as we can so. I think. Again it's just mixing of the science and the policy where people get -- -- -- here people say I don't believe -- targeted because it's too expensive to accept -- because. So it could have been many unethical people -- and yup everything right that the capitalist society so. You know it. Well kept -- certainly make -- about him -- -- vocal critics many of the prisoners investment group renewable energy and out that. That's all dependent on whether the climate -- in the executive. -- of in his that's -- is a lot of people don't agree with divorce -- it's too expensive exit. Let me let me ask you this in terms of erring on the side of caution and as signs that you and other scientists see what is today convinces you so much. That this is not a cycle that it's not as a text comes in in between every ninety ice age there's a warming period. That the earth could be gone through some changes are you believe the earth is going through changes that are. Saturday did not gonna go back and that proved to use that we are gone through those changes. Well I think it's really the last 240 years that are are telling for me. No we haven't el -- going on -- there's no -- no better retreated seven years in global temperature actually brightness level when there's no -- because the Pacific coast in the tropics are just giving up and to keep from just the atmosphere. When there's a lot of -- yet. Doesn't are taking up a little it and it will temperature cooled a little bit. Now that you have to separate those and if you do that over the last forty years he -- -- very steady right temperature. The last 1015 years have not seen much in the way of the global temperature rise because we have a lot of what it's going. It now looks likely they have -- don't need -- sitting up toward the end of this year -- even a strong one. And I have no doubt that we get a strong -- you know that this year they are certainly committed -- will be the warmest on record so. You know global temperatures risen about the degree last hundred years we've added an amazing about a carbon dioxide something like thirty. Billion tons a year which is have -- and it's going out of the year and I kept seeing it. And we know the carbon dioxide warms the planet because Venus with a lot of it is very warm. A merger but that's yet to miss it's much colder weather and outside so no doubt about that everything we know what can keep and we know wee bit of a lot of -- you know it's warming. Elena but there's so volcanoes thing and a few answers not volcanoes roaring CO2. I'm looking that regulate climate some exceptional nearly -- let's get to as we do. But when there are a lot of -- climate of school what impact there have been a lot of minor eruptions since about 2000 that maybe. Partly in the mix of what we haven't had a lot of warming in the last ten to twelve years globally. But I should say that even though we haven't had a large spike in more than 2002 still warmer in the 1990s. The 2010 so far the warmer in the 2000 and every decade. Let's Ford has been more than one before. And not necessarily replace -- receive an agenda that the dreaded polar vortex and that it's again fascinating -- research why. We are having such cold winters in here in the -- that. Part that's just natural variation you know the 197770. Extremely cold weather center much like these. And get a text here that says the earth was a lot warmer one and done nurses dinosaurs roamed the planet than it is now and and in parlor -- on who'd be old enough to remember that so how would you determine. Well effective -- order. And -- many ways to computed in market sentiment in the pennant instead of particulate it. Certain. Molecules and how they've changed -- -- -- decompose in certain ways and there are a lot of interest in ways. To assess -- -- coroner evidence at home. You were we now have -- -- and have been a much for that matter but certainly -- -- forget with a lot warmer and we know YE a large extent that. Locations of where the comments are and the orientation -- around the sun notable evolved in ways that are pretty well understood and we're you have the -- located at a lot to do -- how much he hasn't worked. And how much radiated back to states so a lot of the changes are very well mapped. It's not that much of the mystery like it's warm when the dive for sure -- the concern is that. If we change very rapidly that much warmer -- I'm gonna leave coastal cities. In the you know next few hundred years and that's a very real possibility. So you know if it's good for the dinosaurs and not necessarily be good for our advanced societies. -- -- UW built into Bob. -- how about the Larry. You know when. That -- Of carbon dioxide. And myself. Equally and not. Think about it. Yeah. -- on and we are. According. Nearly cheaper than running. The current. And where. We are. Or. On her. -- Wouldn't. Go -- he worked them. -- -- -- -- the people. -- only me. Well and fortunately we can't change -- people you're. With Miller eagle and -- -- it. -- all content and. The other thing you can. There's well first of all of novelist and I think -- believer progress I think I don't think our our impact on near the always negative I think it's it's certainly a bit except. I'm impressed with civilization I think we can do a lot adaptive to climate change coming to understand it's coming no matter what we do. But I you know I do you know I'd have no doubt that -- -- excited or implanted in the -- today and the more you do it in its. Physics it's been understood for under that two years. Is that serious doubt about that. But you know again it's it's held respondent has seriously think the problem after it to be taken seriously think it is just -- -- problems in the world and some people made. The climate change you'll other problems. That's a legitimate decision people make based on the fact that I just think it's important for people that. To understand the basic science and and that that's that's some pretty firm and to the point about Venus after leaving his post in the sense that. It's a lot warmer than otherwise would be because of the CO2 that Mercury which is even closer as extremely cold night. When it's facing away from the I think -- doesn't have and it's because of the significant difference. One quick question before -- to go in terms of emerging nations India China etc. they don't care what they put in the hemisphere it is. -- mean that we -- make any difference. Well that's an excellent point -- it's seven. It's between chided -- justice abruptly after the globe commissioned them to -- the mid 1990s we -- which places it. Which formally -- that's about 30% of global emissions China about 15%. China's more like 30% in the dresses. Between fifteen and twenty but a lot of that because China is now manufacturing steps that we used to make here for the convention to -- -- bit below that stuff comes here. But nevertheless it's a series a complicated. Social political problem -- that. You know how you deal with that because certainly have a certificate here and that's the field here. And we got you know if -- -- -- at the -- global level at least some acknowledgment that all countries make a difference. But nevertheless we -- leader we considered so the world leader in many ways I think it's an area where we can also lead and separated by example. We've done a lot of -- standards that are gas mileage it's increasing. Welch per gallon in that -- interpret that brought domestic audience in person -- dark and we are are set for. -- here on out so I think that it the global example and you know working on the global level. Understand what's going on -- dispute and configure an idealistic if they're actually right and if we change that we do and nobody else has been that doesn't helpful. Bob I appreciate the time rarely do Bob Hanson science writer at the national center for atmosphere research is a meteorologist. And author of the upcoming book the thinking person's guide to climate change have a great day okay thank.

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