Mar 24, 2014|
Garland talks with Jack Goldstone of the Mercatus Center about whether Vladimir Putin could be looking at invading more territories than simply Crimea.
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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Well I have to confess. Catcher Leo about six months ago and say grab me a map and show -- were Ukraine. I would know I was somewhere around Poland or Russia -- of the Englander Turkey's somewhere in their blood I would have trouble funding. Well over the all the recruiting job done about what's happening now what's concerns about what may happen. I still don't quite get why. It's so important office. So as usual -- school via offers better understand. We have judge Goldstone with the -- give them some of his free time. Senior fellow accused sooner propel us through public policy at George Mason University. Jack book from there sure appreciate the time. -- Me why black is it is important to us here in the United States forget the European Union -- while over the idea. Collective world but a -- our business report. Well if it's at that same thing about a lot of different places in the worldwide it was a Afghanistan important why it was Iraq important. And it all comes down the same thing there is a big. Conflict in the world between people who believe in democracy and freedom. And people who don't think. Democracy is dangerous and freedom is best kept for a few people at the very top of society. And whatever you have a country that is led by people who. Are trying to suppress. Freedom and they are trying to expand their territory. And put other people under their control. That's something that we in the United States have always taken as something. Dangerous to our freedom wherever -- happen. A -- would help me here and and -- may be brawl. I can point to in the thing I've read recently. But -- problems in the Congo problems. Indonesia. Areas like that for work people or often. Put the ball and mistreated by their governments. I don't -- this forward ranging. Concerned all the way down to Syria today where you see these horrendous visuals and in talking about millions of people. Not just being affected by -- takeover -- with -- no food no water and dying and being injured. If there seems to be at least in my -- -- breeding almost and then inordinate amount of attention to this is it because it's Russia. It is certainly because -- Russia. And Garland you're right there a lot of bad things that are happening all around the world. So even though it always matters to. There are matters of degree. Afghanistan suffered. Under a lot of different government that was invaded by the Soviet Union. We responded with sanctions but we didn't. Can send anybody over there until it got personal when. Osama bin Laden sought shelter in Afghanistan after attacking. The United States on our own territory. That it became a bigger deal and we were willing to fight. But before then you're right even though it was. A place where bad things were happening we didn't like it directly involved. I think Ukraine may be somewhat like that we're not happy with what's. Happened there but it's not such an important placed that we would be willing to send troops. To fight there. Frankly I was a little surprised that -- in Iraq invaded Kuwait that we thought that was worth sending Americans. Soldiers to risk their lives to fight for. But I think these are always. Decisions made to based on what we think is possible what we think is necessary. And what will cost -- NATO got involved in Libya to prevent massacres by a dictator because we fought the cost -- Relatively low and it was important. We didn't do the same thing in Syria because it's so much more complicated situation. It seems that costs would be much higher and although we register guard disapproval. We have not reacted to Syria in the same way as we did with Libya or Iraq. So every country in the world where we have the potential interest. We always have to weigh the importance of what's happening. Against what we feel we can do about it what we achieved and what with the cost -- And with Ukraine. Were not happy and it doesn't matter to Ukraine as a big country it's right next to Europe. And it's right next to Russia but. There's nothing we can really do about it. In the short term except put some sanctions. On the people we feel we're responsible. -- -- -- -- per straight when we come back. Ask you don't just look into your crystal ball do you seat in the extreme. Situation. Where either we combined with NATO. As to respond with a -- troops or -- mean. Ukrainians or. Do you see inferences. Stony and -- we and ball arrows and on and on. Come right back of -- Bill -- create -- -- 53 yeah. Ribbon ticket about to you -- and we've been in numbers shows on the stove for a month apartment. Have a hard time understanding why it's so it seems seems to be every -- -- seems to be extremely important. And every single as that recent pew research and survey shows that 56%. Of the American public. So it's more important for the united states -- minimize. Its involvement in the -- creating prices than take Cooper and sending its roof and action. In the meantime all took on NBC Wall Street Journal poll 57%. Of Americans leave the US is still in recession. And everything a group from both studies seems to be. Americans are saying it would went through twelve years of war and were a rough time put the kids through college and -- in the bills. We don't want it -- war but it would get involved again. Well to better understand this world who -- experts -- Goldstone. Senior -- rumored cages and professor of public policy at George Mason University. And professor of your own mind and -- -- and a desert storm bill Clayton you're wrong with mr. -- Hi how ya doing today. Great and I want to make a comment about that. Peninsula greens -- Every one who -- -- that we should act involved in Ali minor disputes in Nevada. -- -- anything it's minor by physically. Think in Kuwait department that work at call -- kinda mud and a couple of com. I'm a dentist on third and lower firstly -- soldier that was -- Kuwait City. And if you and so you can understand them on the air -- Saddam Hussein was trying to perform again ironically people all morning first thing that I have seen and -- hope it's not too graphic radio. I'll -- the first -- -- affectionately came to a Kuwait City it was EB. Of course how would -- Apollo the street corner. And they took the Kuwaiti women and column from the street polled by doses. And -- that reasoning involved in the conflict I don't know what battery in there it. Look Clayton understand. What you're saying and I appreciate the bone cold -- much. And in objective steps. That that's the reality of war. And as horrible as that is that's happening you know let apple right now at helping ensured there is around the world right. It's absolutely true what happening in Syria that -- just this horrible with children taking the brunt of the suffering but we. He you know I salute the bravery of our wonderful men and women who have fought to save the innocent all over the world. As your other common enters and set the limit to the US resources and we do have problems here now. Now the issue in Ukraine and fortunately is not as dreadful nothing like that is is happening. No one's so far as being killed except the protesters who came out in Kia to demand the change in government. But here's the problem and here's why so many people worried about this. It was just the matter. Russia welcoming the Crimea pack. That doesn't matter that much not to affect my life in Washington in your life in -- and whether Crimea as part of Ukraine or Russia. However. -- what's really happening is that Vladimir Putin. Who's leading Russia. Thinks that she can go any country to any country that has a lot of Russian speakers are people of Russian background. And take that part of the other country away. We're gonna find ourselves in the war before we know you've got Estonia. To the north of Russia about 25%. Of the population are. Ethnic Russians. And facility as part of NATO now we have. Contract we have an agreement with them that is fair territory is attacked. We have to come to their defense. Witnesses say we do you mean the united so. Or or also -- org or -- All the NATO but realistically speaking. Of big function NATO is carried by. You that your that your. -- above left field and Luke -- will India. Well they don't have as many Russian speakers but every one who is bordering Russia has been alarmed. By the speed. And strength. With which. Russia promoted this transition. In Crimea. He didn't wait for anybody to you know strike a deal -- -- talked to the government in Ukraine and you know you have a lot of people there -- who we think would be. Happy to be part of Russia are you planning to let them have a vote and we talked about it you know it just. That's. Thousands of troops stationed in Crimea I think they'll just have -- -- out and helped Crimea. Become part of Russia. About below euros. -- stone and. Everybody is looking at Russia now and wondering. What is this kind of a unique special situation with the Crimea. Or is this the beginning of another effort. By Russia to try again. Take territory from the neighbors remember we have this in Georgia a few years ago when people -- well that was you know unusual. Not gonna happen again but here we are. Six years later -- While it's happening again. That really has led people to be afraid of what are we going to be sending two or three years from now. So many years saying President Obama it is an outstanding up compute node where you should what what more can -- do our -- about the sanctions they seem to be. Fairly detailed. Well the first round of sanctions. Which was aimed mainly -- members of the Russian parliament. Was pretty weak. Most of the members of the Russian parliament. Had already been asked by president Putin's. To sell -- there holdings in Europe. And limit their travels he says it's -- -- loyal member of the Russian government. You shouldn't have divided loyalties with. Property and money. Outside of Russia. So that was not the right group to target. But the second round of sanctions. Was aimed squarely. At. Business people who work close to Bruton who have international interest. And those people could be feeling the pinch I think this round of sanctions was pretty much right on target. And and everything you read says the really well and approachable and move your Monday of the country. Past raid and over the last two decades. Bigger I suppose sixty billion dollars years since 2012. It is it is or there were no full doomed to persuade Putin to back call for stand his ground. Well we don't know. We don't know how much of what President Putin is doing is. Taking a calculated risks and how much is he. Just intoxicated. With the idea he has of himself as the national savior. Whose mission is to create ever stronger Russia. It's it's the second he's not going to be persuaded but I hope that he's still irrational leader of the country. And that this level of sanctions. Will be strong enough to give him some caution. And not make any other aggressive moves either in the Ukraine or any of the other neighboring countries. I had Robert Gates on the show last week and he says demoted first met mutant he'd looked into resides and so we as of -- stone cold killer. Do you see anything compute in bed that suggests. Maybe he moves in the key bend it and that sit -- we can. Let this stills from muddle along in the mean time. Well I think the question is not whether he's a -- you. His career was in the KGB agents that his profession was to do whatever was necessary. For his country. The question is is -- Craigslist killer or is he a rational. And my crystal ball says. You want to stay in power for a long time he knows that Russia is economically weak you said sixty billion here has been leaving Russia. That is true 2012. But it's gotten worse seventy billion -- in just the first quarter of this year. And the reason for that as people are losing confidence. In Russia's economy. Is more dependent on oil and gas and -- it hasn't been able to diversify. And oil and gas prices. Not in -- state high in the long run America keeps up its own energy revolution and puts more Portland gas in the market and other countries do the same. So Russia actually. May have made the move into Ukraine. To take people's attention away from the fact that it's getting economically weak. The verdict in that abuses that hindered with the U -- the -- Ball and 22%. Again through those dollars since 2011. Central Bank but. Earlier open. You're right but that's the long term economic weakness and mentioned the Ruble actually. Suffered those fall. Earlier this year when the emerging market currencies in general were under pressure. And all of that capital leaving the country. You know people were selling rubles to buy Swiss franc British pounds euros and dollars. So the Google has actually been falling very fast for about the last. Ten to twelve months another sign that general weakness. But in the last several weeks. Since food meant to Ukraine and it's actually strengthen and stabilize. So in the short run. What Bruton has done has made his position Russia's stronger. It's made Russia looks stronger and more threatening. Now can that be sustained in the long run. I actually don't think so I think Putin is aware of that. And that's what my crystal ball says he's taken about all the -- he -- with Russia's future for right now and he doesn't want to make things. -- You'll Tim what do you think possibilities. Of shooting war nor. Well when you have thousands of soldiers waiting on the border. In just in case vote primed and ready. There always are going to be risks remembered. World War I started not because people decided they wanted to have a war but because everybody got their soldiers ready just in case. And then there was a single assassination. At a little country. About Serbia. And the army started moving. So right now Russia has tens of thousands of troops on the border of eastern Ukraine. I don't think they're gonna make an invasion and push for Kia all by themselves but there is a risk that if people in Ukraine some Russian supporters. Some Ukrainian Nationalists. If they start shooting at each other and battle breaks out somewhere inside Ukraine. You can have people calling on Russia for help. Russian troops might enter the Ukraine might feel that they have to respond by sending Ukrainian army to defend their territory. And then you have an all out civil war and Europe is gonna have to decide. Does NATO get involved here protect what's left of Ukraine. Or do we let it fall into Russian hands. I hope we never have to deal with those possibilities. At the same time. We have to start drawing up plans. Just in case because you know the chance to something like that happening maybe one in 51 intend but it certainly not zero. Jack always a pleasure to have you on the show thanks so much preacher by time apparently. I'm would you. Our governor and actual vote talk to a senior fellow at colts and -- for public policy. And everything good about Ukraine.