Apr 28, 2014|
Garland talks with Peter Brookes of the Heritage Foundation and Justin Logan of the Cato Institute about whether America is ready for a war with Russia.
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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Of those Saber rattling continues in Ukraine -- at least for me to a bit more complicated every day. I'm looking at some headlines here we've got. Pro Russian rubble. It took hostages in the German -- the -- for vacation team supposedly. And their parading member and -- -- of the media. Moldova. Via a government there is concerned about return true. Russian encroachment in their country because they've got a -- -- Russian population. Rivera. International. Accord signed in Geneva. Telling those sort of seize businesses and home -- we haven't done that. The president's talking about more sanctions against Russia today. Well when you read the list. Companies. Here in the united says but in particular. In Europe you wondered that -- work. Then the -- the amount of this information. Coming out of Ukraine via the media and again. Just warm your information being put up by governments. And all of this would become an underlying tall all potential war. All of this we always go to the experts better and stay in situation. We've had Brooks with the senior fellow national security prayers -- -- to -- -- former CIA analyst. -- welcome we sure appreciate the time. -- and learn the game -- and it's that I rode on the quote. -- Georgia and Ukraine is apparel this one much more so than our current debate acknowledges. You agree and and if so how is. Why didn't you what you said in full SOA based on based on -- court I I don't I don't disagree -- it. I wouldn't say they were necessarily you know on the precipice of war with Russia. But the situation could quickly spin out of control and I think that's probably what Newt Gingrich was talking about. And of course that sets a precedent that he may also been referring to four other you know actors around the world. Other countries to mean what. DB annexation of Crimea which many people see is that as a legal. Perhaps immoral. You know what does that say to you know the Chinese in their actions and territorial disputes in Asia in the south China the east China the so. What's going on there in Russia and Ukraine. Is probably not just being watched by Russia and Ukraine as it did an -- and not so I mean it's being watched around the world how the United States. Action how it responds how Europe back in response. Two Russian actions is going to tell others what they may or may not you who. Themselves that may be seen as a legal or moral in terms of territory program. Pardon my ignorance fungus. Issue Ukraine today. Fight alongside of us in Iraq and Afghanistan. You know I don't know the exact answer to that question they never had her silver are not watching this -- -- -- just don't know the answer. She said I just don't know that much career where you're taking -- I don't know the answer that question. Judge afford to go because born when I had an expert on a couple of weeks ago what's the deal why is -- important to us. And Lisa -- got -- treat -- very good gives its need to. Yeah -- him have a treaty with the Ukraine is now part of NATO and let me give you a little background NATO that this alliance that goes back to. You know post World War II era back to the Cold War. You know this is says that an attack on one is an attack on ball. That it doesn't require military action if there is some sort of attack on NATO countries mostly Western European United States. Canada. If it played it increased consultations. That it's meant to be a deterrent to anybody who might especially -- talked about the Soviet Union at the Soviet Union were to. Has swept into Western Europe. The United States and Europe was saying we're gonna fight back. And it doesn't matter what country -- go after. So that was what that was about that Ukraine is not part of NATO the North Atlantic Treaty Organization so there's no treaty commitment. To defend Ukraine now you could come up with other reasons that you want to intervene militarily in the Ukraine the point -- treaty obligation. A what what what's the -- -- Well I mean that that would be -- that would have to be depending on what the scenario. You know the the United States if perhaps the united because it doesn't -- the United States and others. Could decide to use military intervention. Four you know moral reasons so legal reasons I mean under the UN charter. You know taking another country's territory. It's considered to be is considered to be illegal I'm not saying we should do this I'm just saying this is the sort of thought process these that would go on. It if something Russia would go to eastern Ukraine take another bite at. Ukraine or take the entire country itself. Of course the other concern is is that Ukraine borders NATO countries. -- -- -- There's also concern that you know if Russia takes Ukraine where relate early stop where they don't act they have a territorial disagreements and disputes with. The country of Georgia. With the country of Moldova. -- would they tried to you know take back the Baltic States Lithuania Latvia Estonia which are part of -- so. I think the issue here is is that it's very difficult to predict the future. And you know there is there's potential for some very unfortunate and dire consequences. Out of the actions of the Russians take. Under what circumstances. Do you see if -- YouTube was kidding militarily involved will we get. Military involved reviewing and nor are NATO and and their soul and what former fashion because I think. My little small personal opinion. You can save the American people that go to war again and he goes from all war. Answer would be resounding -- who have conservatives have -- rock it was a good idea. What's the headline today. Rock and military out match demoralized. Clements Islamist militants. On the rise. How old would we go back to war and in the former fashion. Good without. The American voter approved. No I mean that's critically important obviously you know the most of the heaviest decision at any president makes is -- sending American young men and women into into harm's way in the present would have to look at them in the present this president. Has said that the military options is not. On the table so they're dealing with the politics that diplomacy. Economic sanctions they put in new economic sanctions on Russia today hopefully. Hoping it will reverse course or change course and the direction they seem this seem to be going but. I don't -- military action is anything. Directly in our future. In Ukraine now that can certainly that could certainly change but I just -- -- situation right now I don't think Russia is really spoiling for a fight. They want -- the -- who basically. Allow them to do what they did in places like Ukraine without any reaction whatsoever other than perhaps some sort of condemnation. They really want us to acquiesce to what they wanna do in creating this sort of buffer zone this. A security zone along their borders that that because between them and NATO. So I don't I don't think we're on the like it's at Celtic -- precipice of war but you know if you -- what does the yogi you know I think it was the point. The Danish does this Neal Boortz said he said you know prediction is difficult especially about the future though we have to prepare for -- that a scenario. Of when the -- wind the president talks about sanctions and as you said today more sanctions. In the EU I'm reading about the German chemical company big company based. They're leading company is all companies that are advocating precaution there's some big companies that are. Italy he got in nine. Which user energy company in this subway and we can we can't lose the use but it torture for rush when we get 30%. Our guests from out from an armed -- company BP. Is in the forefront of -- group of companies saying this was gonna hurt us badly Britain in Cyprus. Or warning that Russian depositors clear critical role in their economics. And German is in guarded about butch measures that favors. At the. Well that's. It is sanctions work best when people you know hang together with Kurt Suzuki and those sanctions -- so I mean this is an issue and you know like. Is an old saying in Washington and probably other places where you stand is where you sit right. So here you know if you're European and you have a lot of trade going on with -- with Russia. And cutting off that trade will perjury economy in tough economic times. You're gonna look at things a little bit differently. The United States has much less trade with Russia than a lot of these countries we don't get natural gas from Russia. You know 30% of -- as Europe's natural gas is provided by Russia so. These people are all looking at a from their own set of interest the challenges that come to some sort of consensus position. On how to deal with what people think is naked aggression. In some publications us see this as an opportunity for energy companies through noon -- states. Deployment along the bathroom -- -- we're trying to import from the actually Oshawa we have in this country. Well when I got the energy experts on the air they say well that's good idea of the Big Three 57 years now do you agree. I'm not an energy expert but I I kind of they have heard the same thing so I don't I don't dispute that dispute that at all. But if you -- thinking about doing that all you better get started on it. Both companies need to think about yeah I've heard the same sort of statistics Garland I don't know if I'd like if that's not my area of expertise but I don't I don't doubt what I've heard a number of times. But -- wouldn't. Final question for -- -- the little guy on the street. We keep her in Ukraine Ukraine Ukraine every day and there's not -- you capsized in Europe playing who's appearing. Don't we have any real conservative Bob what's happening there. Well I guess it depends that we talked to. I -- truth I mean yeah I mean that's -- right I mean. And I and I think that's fair and I I do I mean like I said I think -- we go back to the beginning of our segment here I worry about. How this will affect other countries what other countries whether you're talking about Iran or North Korea or China. Or you know other countries how they will see how America acts there you know we still are very important players in world politics. This president a little bit different view of America's role in the world than than I do perhaps. But I think people are going to be watching this and if it looks like you know that the Russians are allowed to do this -- impunity. Than others may decide to do things that are similar. And it certainly I don't think that's good for you know peace and stability and prosperity. And any number of corners of the world. The -- is going to be I would assume convincing the American people when it's time to quote do something about it. Well that that this administration is trying to do something they're not doing a lot these sanctions are limited the number of people that are targeting your limited. And it doesn't seem to be changing Russia's course at the moment. Peter appreciate it time and your expertise you have agreed to a -- Peter -- senior fellow with The Heritage Foundation problems CIA analyst. Governor of the -- -- to be your representative can underwent Hutu who live deterrent organization and guests. Which -- try to get the liberal club but it's a book called the good that your. -- solved. And think people who don't -- wanna get on that show notably. Yeah we're we're still thinking about you grain and in particular. Because this conclusion. -- -- partial against couple weeks on this. And the reason I'd better deals continually. Read ski and enters its -- as could while. And I had a couple of experts on a noticeable. I keep hearing the war with the world war or conflict why that would weaken below. And both of them said well we have a tree. With Ukraine and him were report. Well the last. And says you know and we're treated with the and we have a treaty with NATO. And that would require instant. It's. Being. If you're an independent in the of the very few while there and if it comes down to who do you believe these. It. And and on top of that the media. The media's reporting for your crime and everytime -- -- dumping that. Ago while we have to ensure that and I tracked it down it seems to be altars of prime example. I have this in my miscellaneous filed congress scheduled due to shortage of issues ago when the year first. What do you come up -- John -- and odd thing viewers and they had it on their front page that they Wall Street Journal did too. And based Google and its. And -- -- -- the headlines the last couple of days notices. Were sent by officials in the Ukraine to Jews. And more than city indicating. They had good and -- in itself as Jews. And if you're Google there's more than welcome to Google it obviously. When you when you pull it all up. You know -- very bright things to word. The people that were questioning if the motion and second who's third most. It was blood fibers six down. There's an organization called political fact and Hillary checked back -- dot -- found nothing on it. And little fact we're Tuesday they've -- the Pulitzer Prize sport shifting. Using reports political -- political you know him. And they looked at and secretaries -- John Kerry. Speaking from. Geneva. Where he talked about that. Mean and he stood -- intolerable. And it's grotesque. And I remember reading and said wow and and Israel. Well all of their newspapers will pull it. And little did. Pretty. Detailed reporting on it now of their people can call me and say. Load factor is of little organization it's conservatory. I'm just telling you and what there's so and so we can think about it of what that -- Carries a tune Jews are being -- register. -- that supplier. But it doesn't seem to be issued by eight in the authority. Nobody knows yet who distributed in. But -- separate movement denies issuing the plotters. Jewish community leaders in the era. And denounced the and templates legitimacy. Usually. Claim and they aren't true. Reporters on the ground in done that's so to. The pliers on being taken seriously in new Jews are registered in this news after the reported that the car. Kerry's comments included none of that contents. For all those reasons and they gave a number more. Hold more -- Rolled those readings. Split of fact is writing. That claims that notices were sent out to Jews. And one Ukrainian city to register. Or totally. All sorts coming right back we'll talk to a new institute down and instead it represented them. Of an institute that libertarian. About Ukrainian and isn't as serious as we hear and we keep during. The board conflict we keep hearing the words civil war we Q during word war. And my question perhaps horses to. Why. Have any reason. Is this so important to thoughts coming right back governor bill bigger celebrity an -- 53. Some build -- -- without the other tragedies of the Euro turned -- and he does appearing 777. I would think did you -- would lead every newscast both locally regionally and actually. And the more I hear about it the -- -- wonder. Why exactly. Should we use American citizen being so concerned about -- on the approach just. Slow news for and something I'm missing. But listening to Newt Gingrich you and -- and his show went back and looked at the transcript. And he's at the teachers she said the situation Ukraine is apparel is one. Much more so than our current debate ignore all the Jews he talks about Russia being very. Largest country in the world geographically. Thousands of nuclear weapons completely ballistic missile and describes Putin is -- room ruthlessly determined leader motivated by nationalism. And imperial drive. And I hear all that but he's been around for awhile also of the nuclear weapon through the ballistic missiles. And -- been a big country for a while and I understand that a lot of people to -- would have -- in the Ukraine until looking for. Was is too important. Ross and the reason. Always go to the experts surge answered questions that I can't just slogan ordinances. Director of foreign policy studies at -- and we institute -- and welcome to sure appreciate the time you showed a big concern would be concerned and one. Well I mean it's a lot in the world to be concerned about the world's big placed -- a lot of injustices are a lot of horrible things going on and that the Russian and panic stations Crimean peninsula that it. Concerts are stable alert state of readiness in eastern Ukraine more generally. Is something fierce sort of humanitarian person you should be concerned about there's the potential for a Lotta loss of life but from an American natural interest perspective. You know there could be a lot of border shifting in Eastern Europe it wouldn't affect people -- people's ability to send their kids to school to make a living etc. so. I think it's possible to separate out. Concerns for good or bad things happening around the world from -- -- our national. Agree with the of their board you know would get Syrian children -- that fouls and that have nothing to eat because the food is being blockaded. By those in the war -- and get the Congo where people starving being tortured. But but Ukrainian news is that the top of virtually every newscast. And and have had experts here. When I've asked that question. Have said well we're obligated by treaty to respond. If Russia would move on to Russia Ukraine and the Baltic States Moldova. And I just have an expert on said no that's not true we don't have moved Ukrainian. We have with NATO -- -- -- obligated in -- -- -- respond. If they come under more -- Know Ukraine is not a NATO members state we have no formal treaty obligation to Ukraine. That it -- -- -- I'm sort of we have been well obligation there. It's like that you think that the US has basically made a mumble jumbled the State's use. To justify things they want to do anyway so. -- -- cross border aggressions it is illegal according to the UN. And cross border -- happens all the time and so the idea that. Did you certainly are treated Ukraine stop. Put completely into leaders just not something I think people worried past. There's there is what was called the in the past memorandum -- in the 1990s when you -- was giving up it is the nuclear arsenal that was stationed on Ukrainian territory. The United States and Russia made sort of negative security assurances to Ukraine that we won't come you know as a condition of getting nuclear weapons out. We won't come in muck around in your country now Russia clearly has. Or violated the spirit if not the letter that green and it. But you know there are a lot of us -- think that these agreements are basically worth the paper they're written on an interim the states feel that they happened forcing them which in this case. Very few people Washington new levers of power suggesting we should. You can't get involved in the war with Russia. Over Ukraine. -- -- and take a break -- news Jerusalem with me a few more minutes. The the President Obama and the four -- well as about income and President Obama and announced new sanctions coming in Russia. Over this issue. This aboard Putin. Wars. Quoted is suing over the weekend -- everyone knows of no sanctions reflected in the modern world. They never have -- intended. Affect. We'll find out if that's true or at least think about it when we come back a bit of -- President Obama and announced today -- Financial sanctions against Russia because of their actions in the Ukraine. Here's a quote from plumber prudent -- to reconsider about it and knows that. Sanctions are not objective in the modern world endeavor of the intended. All we're isn't complicated subject we go to your church ocean Logan joins us. Director of foreign policy studies at Cato Institute. Joseph do you see the sanctions working at all. Like -- it had -- -- -- work really what I've been saying about it with the Obama administration's up to -- What might happen. Can't work and what's happening there are -- what's happening can't work what might work. The -- -- it felt like yeah. What they're trying to do is do theory that they have is that they're gonna target a lot of these oligarchs higher up rich guys that equals food group. And get them to complain to him. That their money's beaten poked at by Europeans and the American respectively. I -- a period of bad theory I think couldn't cares deeply. About the political leadership in Ukraine. Is willing to do you know take them. And abuse from some of the rich guys in Russia in order to do what he's doing. Opening the Obama administration at -- -- do something problem always existed. American foreign policy there's always is important whenever something's going wrong somewhere in the world got to do something. This happens to be something. They're -- they're doing. So I think it's it's almost certainly going to be in effect it. If you really wound up about that you could just try to strangle the Russian economy. That's very difficult to do. And Europeans while -- would not go along way for example sanctioning the energy sector. In Russia so you just sort of the politics of the art of the possible here and what's possible. It's not -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Fed President Obama would do some open would actually put Putin and Russian energy economy you know paying too. Pull back corps are not going to further or reduce the tensions or. Come to some sudden agreement. Barbara legislator in Germany this big chemical group called basic get thirteen companies. Better fabricating cautioned the Financial Times reporting this Italy. He got their largest in the new energy company you know which imports 30%. A newscast from Russia's saying we don't -- part of these sanctions got BP. Leaving a group of energy company and we -- money part of it. In Britain and Cyprus are are talking about depositors -- play a critical role in their economy. So even if we do it's often doesn't sound like Europe that is does. Yet -- the collective action problem the idea that you're gonna get. -- really the world for all intents and purposes together. To agreed to go along with a really really stringent sanctions regime similar actually to what has happened on Iran. I think is just the far. Reach. For anybody to do with Russia in 2014. To know Putin block. I'll were. Military shipments and other shipments were made to Afghanistan and over that northern route and Russian. Well did give it -- campaign actually finally. Beginning to wind down so you minister were to be supply considerations. In northern in Afghanistan treatment or. Those could be obligated that he would be -- expenses and -- -- -- the United States but it wouldn't you know it would affect our calculus and more than were affecting. Some good reports as feared concerned primarily about Putin. Cutting upload -- program from Western Europe. If she did that there wouldn't be shooting himself and his own economic put. You know I mean I downplayed defected -- the sanctions that have taken place here before but it you know there's certain amount. Pain being inflicted. On certain segment of the Russian population the. Indirectly at least Putin's expected behavior in Ukraine today. So you know using anarchy in as a political tool rather than an economic asset. Certainly bears cost. But countries pare costs paying for their militaries countries -- cross fighting wars you know I mean these are these are -- international politics is all -- Paint cost so it's not inconceivable that we could do this but he appears to present that even the threat. All this sort of Europeans. Major power economic warfare. Is enough to future. Italians and Germans and the French English. From engaging in it over Ukraine. Walter journal that is an article. Fledgling. Iraqi military is -- match demoralized. On the battle do you move though losing the bye week against Islamist militant. Doubles are second last war. Do you see innings scenario at all of the actions in the Ukraine. That caused the president congress even entertain the idea war and more importantly. You see in the -- the American people would agree. The hole I mean even this sort of perpetual super hawks in congress John McCain Lindsey Graham are talking about. Sending Ukraine weaponry it's just not a Y option and I guess this is what counts as progress in the American foreign policy establishment. That those guys are not calling for a new war. On and I think you're quite right to your the American people here right and somebody who thinks that public opinion is not a really strong constraint on what policy makers do in this case. We Iraq and Afghanistan exhaustion. Widespread. Not just Democrats and independence the but even Republicans to sort of throw their hands up with. The -- such as they've been. American foreign policy and said no more than -- And in the possibility. Of escalation. In the conflict with the country with thousands of nuclear weapons. And you just get a political muscle in the United States where people say look you know we're gonna render grant -- garments and how it happened about what's going on here. But did you think no weight in gold and Ukrainian -- Russia. We view on the open jokes and thank you so much for the time in the expertise learned something -- church going. Just Logan director of foreign policy studies. At Cato institute and actually what. Big about the Ukraine let's go to some comments thoughts with the Ian and Algiers -- preacher Gerald and. Arlen and I have to be brief but it out if you. An example. Scared. As Q what actual -- -- store on over there. And all of a bottle here's my first deployment. -- They are -- 20 or. And for whatever reason we -- leader -- that gay folks able to get a copy and now watched Sherlock. And live bright between what are you see pictures of own the you're building -- about four quarters what used to be that comparable. Part of our agents -- there whatever it so -- watch news. And there was huge plumes of smoke coming right middle there and on where. Border rocked back. And they were. Ali at all about and that we draw so I want outside. The -- and it sort made this track ball. Aaron Eddie Burke he wants marked a worker blows academic end. And I watch this for hours and hours and they are reporting apple these are boarding. You know specific numbers that it's -- Lehman. Yeah and I hear what you -- and we'd talk about it all the time here is scared no point of liberal conservative media who -- you trusts Columbia.