WWL>Topics>>5-29-14 1:10pm Angela: on hurricane season expectations

5-29-14 1:10pm Angela: on hurricane season expectations

May 29, 2014|

Angela talks about what to expect from hurricane season this year with the WWL-TV meteorology team of Carl Arredondo, Alexandra Cranford, and Dave Nussbaum.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Hello everybody I hope you're having a beautiful day and it did turn out beautiful little different than yesterday. And that's actually something we'll talk a little bit about with our first guest. I called the best whether people line no. Our second show is going to be I think a tremendous interest as well. This is really borne out of a convert a interview I heard of Robert Jenkins the very well known defense lawyer. Who made a comment on the air the -- today. Saying that parents. Need to be held accountable. For some of the actions of their children. And a meaning those who are getting into big big trouble. And he even went as far to say that perhaps they should lose some of their benefits. Whether it be food stamps whether it be housing benefits. And it just struck up here we are. Facing all of these shootings this past weekend and outrageous. What can we do much can we do. So we're gonna look at that we're also going to be talking to. Of the Doctor Who -- has trauma unit at town university hospital what does -- see. And who's paying for this I think -- not want to miss the shadow. And then we are going to end up or three hours where. On just such an interesting event that is happening sort of general like times there's. Been a big increase in the number of women having babies. Over the age of 35. And also a bigger increase in women having babies over the age of forty. So we're going to be talking to two women and the doctor about what's going off. Know what's happening but this is just sort of a very interesting thing and as I'm sure you saw in today's paper and heard on our news that the number of babies of the younger women decreasing. So we're just gonna look at that dynamic. But we're starting with -- -- know it it's that time of year that we know too well hurricane season officially start Sunday. But it may never really be off the minds of our three guest the super meteorologist. Looked -- WL TV. Carl error Redondo. Alexander Crawford. And by phone so delighted to have did not respond thank you all for being here. And I am particularly think because I know. Having worked with fuel so long. The amount of work that you -- did yesterday just a yeoman job. It's a 24 hour day you make it look effortless it is not. It is just a lot of work and you did tremendous coverage. You really -- -- thank you thank you Alexander was there early in the morning getting things started in and Dave and I showed up and got things. Rolling the rest of the afternoon and even into the evening hours so we haven't unfortunately there are long days like that for us and and that's where we have to step up in and make sure that everything's taken care of. But is there a sense of -- and Crawford it's -- for -- ethnic group. Did. He kind of pitcher. Juices flowing on a day like yesterday. All day and I think I'll call early this morning about 2 AM Leo -- -- kind of season we ended up at a time again last night. You know -- together is that feeling of honey and again again going. And Dayton a spotlight truly look forward to physically meeting at shortly after our teammates over the radio many times but. But you and and you have a vast experience as well but I think it's win real talent -- mean Iran and comes out when you do have a day like yesterday. AA you know it's one of these where you know we're trains you know what everything means and how to explain that is you know listeners and viewers of -- an expectant you know it it's when you get a lot of things having a one time I'd be deciphered -- -- worse the tornado warnings of flash flood warnings and everything and you know we do our best got a great team here and seems to viewers respond well to it as well. Well. They do and they are appreciative. And now very much more participatory in that they send you wonderful pictures of things which is fun for everybody absolutely so you got many eyes in the sky. Absolutely and it's a big help social media has changed so much as. I call myself a -- so I had no idea FaceBook because I had to you know through work and I don't have a personal FaceBook page personal Twitter account it's all a work related but. It serves a purpose and those pictures that we got yesterday from many viewers about the flooding in and the a tornado damage meaning it helps to you know enhance our broadcast and our presentations. Well we're gonna shift gears a little bit and start talking about what I'm looking at -- who I now know just crossed it which is a real serious training program that and I thought about the three of you. You are in sort of a cross that training because you're a big season. Starts on Sunday yes and that can be along six months. Yes and you know starting off in June July. You know you. And then August -- September as you know Angela many of us don't take a lot of vacations during that time of year because. You may not get to have that vacation. But again would you rather work in to leave -- I always say it in your view whether that person. Be where the web variance in. I'm listening today of life. I worked up -- there once started -- now we're ready Erie Pennsylvania and it's it's not tropical weather excellence and a whole. Documents that look there. But that it was an arrest at work they're in the Summers client that you get -- the opposite of us the winter season. Talk fetus isn't coming down so I'd rather be in the woman aren't personally. Well let's talk about the good news and correct me if I'm wrong on top three experts. But el Nino is on its -- backers back and that's a good thing difference. It is a good thing it it what it does is it changes the weather pattern with the Pacific Ocean when they get warmer than normal off the coast of central and South America it change the jetstream pattern across the world and we talked about that many times that. El Nino caused a stronger upper level winds in the Atlantic -- so upper level winds are not favorable for tropical systems to try and develop vertically. Because the strong winds blow the tops and don't allow to grow vertically and that's how tropical systems get stronger and stronger the taller they get. And that's what the expected to develop during the mid part of the summer in the latter part of the hurricane season. And that -- why most of the forecast we've seen have been either at or slightly below average. Doesn't mean there won't be one that hits the United States doesn't mean there won't be one that. Hits Louisiana we don't know that we just know that the number may be lower than what we've had in recent years. -- -- any thoughts on that. -- it's you know we've we've had a very active. Puree it here I think he's these are all cycles when you get a very active number of years of the last ten years been very active and kind of calms down a little bit. We get and el -- forming and hurricanes that are India and covers state. Went out violated and said you know. Let's go back in history and see weather patterns currently in the April may timeframe. What they were doing in the past NC we freaking out Corley between new years. This upcoming season and a cover to stake him out with the years of 195719636519972002. With similar weather patterns for this time of the year. And those were not active hurricane seasons. However. In 1957 we hurricane we know too well call artery that in the -- you know we also had a two tropical storms we've seen -- that your two. Not an active seasons but we have three named storms in the -- you know. It's 63 node named storms and in 1965. And other store we know all too well Betsy. I hit southeast Louisiana 97 was hurricane Danny in 2002. Now a tropical storm -- itself the Wii's -- -- -- the hurricane is adorned hurricane -- it. Panic and it wasn't a very active season but we've seen it's still wise. Hit in the news on active years so. We're getting at is don't put your guard down just because for saying its -- -- year which still have also 1992. Hurricane -- it it was not an active here. So it's just one of those where does because were saying not that these storms are expected as we said before Italy takes one. It only takes -- Alexander yeah I was gonna say also with those storms that you just mentioned. There are strong storms there major hurricanes entertainment category three category four for Isidore and for Lilly. Betsy of course that category forced -- not just storms and I hitting Louisiana but major hurricanes. You know that it's very interesting what developers when you when you first or reading 19579. I forgot about Audrey. You know 6360 dot I thought he's gonna come around -- state so it's going to be good -- And they really marked down exactly what happened those years if that's the reality check this week I think we're all hopefully a little wiser. And would wanna hear the numbers from these places in Colorado. Not not Dennis Dennis -- help him but. And we're pretty brutal about that right but we do want to know that information but it really is a case by case basis for. And I think the thing that we're gonna emphasize in and what we talked about Dave mentioned Isidore Isidore when it came to us was only a tropical storm but we had a lot of storm surge flooding water flooding from -- even though the tropical storm. Same thing when we had -- people saw our category one it's not gonna be that bad American League but we had a lot of storm surge. What we're trying to emphasize that we're gonna talk more about -- and -- hurricanes' special which is this Monday at 7 o'clock. -- Dave's got a story on this new storm surge models that's going to be. Issued by the National Hurricane Center so we're gonna try and emphasize mourn our broadcast. -- idea that look at each impact differently don't associated category one with this month's storm surge don't associate tropical every one is different so you look at the wind but look at the storm surge separately. Andy's new models and -- -- explain that in our our special coming up. Will indicate that you know this is something new that we that we have to emphasize more. Don't worry about the category as much as also the storm surge that we could see now Isaak. The storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center and our local National Weather Service office was correct we had that amount water rise in lake -- to train. And that was the forecasts of about two to four feet and that was correct we had about two to four -- rise in lake party train unfortunately the wind flow. Kept the wind. Coming from the northeast and that flooded bull -- Syria so. That storm surge forecast was correct and we showed that storm surge forecast but again people associated it's just the category -- not going to be that bad. You can't. Think that way anymore everyone is different that's way the storm surge are going to be a separate forecast. Not based on the categories it's not based on the terrain of the coast. It's going to be based on the wind blow the duration of the winter it's a separate forecast not associated with the wind where the category of the stormont. Alexander is gonna -- Anderson story also on the I hurricane special. About that tagging sharks. -- will help us may be of help with getting important computer model data to go into the computer model so that a pretty cool story that that it's going to be a lot of. And and that's Monday at 7 Monday at 7 o'clock on channel I want everyone to stay with this we have to take a quick break but we're gonna come back if you're really talking about something one and -- to talk about. Which is the science of meteorologist. We'll be right back on Angela under the W well. Well we've got the meteorologist to the meteorologist parlor Don down did not bomb an Alexandra. -- effort from -- WL. Weather team can't thank you enough for being here we're talking about up hurricane season as we all. Always will. And you -- -- such interesting things about new technology. Different things than Alexander is gonna do on the show on Monday. For the weather and special hurt and special. Concerning sharks. Before we get into the specifics of those. Is meteorite AG. An exact science. According to our phone calls and no. Yeah. No it and it isn't it isn't an exact science and and unfortunately because. Once the information is taken that goes in the computer models what happens an hour and minutes later that atmosphere changes so yeah answers are always changing in models are always changing so. That's why we were updating our forecast you know sometimes a couple of times to three times you know in -- even in a day because. You know the atmosphere changes and unfortunately it's not an exact science and but you know we tried to get you know as corrective and at that educated guess that we give you because that's basically what -- forecast is an educated guess it's not just. As Dennis Walter and says dart board in -- or you know or. -- fortune type wheel you know is that you know based on information that we're looking. But but what is interesting to all three -- an -- -- Laura I have to say lark could make it today and it's a beloved member of your team as well very important on the morning news. You'll look at the data and then individually. You interpreted. Well I mean whole Lotta times Alexander's alone on the weekend so -- she is anybody -- talk to you but you know that the computer monitor and Dave and I mean we're collide during the afternoons together so. You know we're we're talking back and forth and then -- there in the mornings -- law are you know and David. You can you know discuss what kind of conversations you have a lower. Oh I'd love to know that they can get things going well for. Hot and job. It's it would it specially a tricky forecast like yesterday to date we know what's gonna rain -- and a little listeners really wanna know. In the current -- my house and the way these showers pop up in this type -- environment it's very warm very humid out there and it is -- got to put our heads together or there's a threat for severe weather out there it's like OK you'll. Here's everything we were taught and here's but it all means that's the what do you think about this and the timing -- temperatures here. You know Karl on amazing in the afternoon it's like well looks at the clock -- make it out here in times -- up the temperatures 34 more degrees. You know for tomorrow which you know makes a big difference. Bombed so it's it's kind of like you know it's it's nice -- can you know talk to someone you know get confirmation -- -- thinking if they think the same thing. Com you know it makes the forecasting just -- user -- to -- put again -- just one. Actually in Alexandria if you have a -- a difficult. Weekend of what do you call them or do you talk the national weather servicer. Unlike only kissling I'll talk to one of them but on yes I kind of sometimes though it is a little bit of an individual thing people ask me satellite unit posted 40%. Chance of a huge ego and I hope I thought. Well again I mean -- by the public data and made it fifty you know our Dave might have said you know forty year thirty -- There is a little bit of it's kind of an individual sort of are ominous. That's right if you can also blamed -- topic of sharing this day Alexander would never blame when it. It's a 100% if the rains falling and -- ride it. And you know but I have marveled for decades that you can do what you do and yet I know that and certainly all of your life times. That's the science of it has evolved. And the machinery hasn't evolved which coming from -- mark salons to what we have today what is the most exciting thing that's happened. In the technology of weather cast. I think the biggest thing is the the the speed of the computer models now I mean that they're on the Internet and anybody. Can look at the computer models and everybody there all there also data that we look at. People can look at as well so we're looking at it with some education behind it. And the speed of these computer models are now so much faster because before back in national day and when I was in college. We had to do a lot of the math there a lot of the plotting of this data by hand. And now computer models do it all for us so much faster word we don't have to spend as much time. Plotting all the information down -- doing some of the -- involved and it's all done by computer models so you know when the Internet is down. You know you're in -- -- you know we we tried -- a different source to get that dad -- computer model so for me it's the -- -- the advancement of the computer -- -- the at -- that's mixed forecast a lot easier. One against the bad thing about being so open is ever what can. Sort of be meteorologist and not everyone understands where it you know Alexander Carl -- I've all been trained to college two to -- and interpret all of that. Comments at times you see some people posted things on social media -- -- -- negated by hurricane -- Therefore -- -- and now not not to hit us just because you know what model says that doesn't mean it's gonna happen. Opposite interpretations side -- you know if it gets it gets kind of Dicey sometimes when you see people. On your FaceBook needs or Twitter feed saying it looks like we can't get hit by hurricane and watched the news like whoa why can't you guys saying. And relic well because it's not gonna hit asked discus one model says it doesn't mean it's always outweighs self. On our technologies raids. You know social media is also a good way to get information outs but also there's a lot of stuff to get -- filter through. And sense of atmosphere. It's it's the same concept of citizen journalists to make a citizen meteorologists you'll do study hard for this. We're gonna have to take another break cobra gonna come back -- are gonna find out from Alexandra. Exactly what she did with the sharks. Try to -- -- channel -- not annual hurricane program will be Monday at 7 o'clock. And how lucky we are to have parlor Redondo diagnosed vomit Alexandra transfer here the great meteorologist Laura unable to make it. But talking about what world talking about which is hurricane season right around the corner. We have left -- about your gonna have a special report on tender about sharks. Being used for -- Well just add additional data points for the hurricane models so it sounds kinda crazy you know sharks are gonna help forecast hurricanes. I get a lot of kind of raise I rather my dad told people what I was doing my story on. But the idea is -- -- tag the sharks with sensors. That feedback the data via satellite. And basically you just provide a bunch more data points beneath the surface. Which is the spot of course for hurricanes get their energy from the deep water heat content. And so -- you know just kinda get more data points from beneath the storm and the interesting thing about Pia has studied that it's going on at the University of Miami. Is that the sharks they found kind of still a winter warmer waters beneath the swarm in any way so it's kind of cool these researchers. Are kind of hoping one day to tag just to scores and scores of finished and to kind of create this permanent sort of mobile. Pool of data points that could help but feed into hurricane models. You know that is such a creative. Well you know in a world assigned to a talking about there's an art to two and in a way that that's the latest Dave you are not gonna talk about. Not looking at storm surge and the model player and so is there like new equipment for that well -- Our National Hurricane Center has been working on trying to -- a forecast model if you will together. -- how big this storm surges going to be. And -- four in the it's going to be impacting any coastal area from you know Texas coastline through the weeks in Florida to the northeast there. And they've been working on it testing testing testing it and they think they've got enough accuracy to it now. Where they're going to be able to have this out of the public to -- Weather service offices had access to this in the past and obviously the hurricane center to see now record was and now they feel that okay. We're going to actually use this is Kenyan official product and then it would be able to you know have the media ourselves in form. The viewers. Just how far the search could be before we say. Look we could have a storm search. You know six did nine feet across the only here if you live in these areas three to five here. And it's kind of highlighted it and now we able to show you on them now. That shows you not only at the search on the coast of how -- you can help voters spread around water areas. And this is something that either gonna start doing with the storms this season now which -- happened is. There released the statement saying okay here's the latest coordinates the wind speed the pressure of the storm. And from what we're told it's gonna take me about an hour after that. And then to release the actual. Model data of where the storm surge is going to be and this is about 48 hours off from landfall. So will have to unfortunate wait for the first named storm to see how well this works for anyone but eventually. You'll see all of us talk about it'll be a fantastic. Tool because. When you think of a hurricane what people think of the wind and there was a storm -- to put through the storm surge that is the most destructive. And deadly if the entire Kirk. Well and as was evidenced by Isaak and your your comments about that earlier incredible. What happened and applauds you and everything's applause how inland can you be but no. Look and they really really suffered right. Tell me what what what -- As you start the season what are your greatest concerns. I think it's getting people to listen to because last year. You know he wasn't the storm surge and people were paying attention to sell our biggest concern this year I think what. The National Hurricane -- talking about a local weather service offices are talking about and what we're gonna try and talk about is that you have to look at the storm surge. If not more important just as important as you do as a category. So we have to get that it's cross as broadcasters at meteorologists that. Wherever you are you need to pay attention to this water coming onshore with this tropical storm with this hurricane no matter what it is. There may be some sort of storm surge that will affect you or flood some parts of our viewing area. And we have to be. I don't know that's better or we have to be better at communicating how important this is going to be from now on. Because we've seen too many talents in the path the storm surge. People seem to be surprised -- I didn't. Correlate with the category. That's all past thinking now now it's a different way we all have to fake and we have to be as meteorologists and broadcast is better at communicating that to our viewers. Well definitely via. I think there's a mental mindset of -- it's a category one were skating right and that we -- saying that does not necessarily the -- We we we can pay to into the category but don't base here evacuations are what you gonna do based on categories anymore -- it yet to base it on that. And also storm surge because we evacuate because of storms -- not the wind. We evacuate because of the storm surge. -- your concerns. Actually it's pretty much the same thing in -- last year riot was asking Carl -- and Laurent -- at the time you know what do you guys think is the biggest thing for us to communicate to viewers you know what should we get them to now. And it almost all of them says it. Not thinking about the category as you decide exactly it's just that it's category for the category three that's all anyone you know really. Really takes home from a forecast sometimes and. That's that's not what's important -- it's called water then water water everywhere stay with -- everyone will be right back with the weather people. Once again so appreciative to have parlor Don though they've announced on listened to me and I can learn to write and read. Dave nice bomb and Alexander transferred and down and -- is in ours -- our hearts. But we're talking with the channel four meteorologist about this season about the hurricane season. At what point do you wall and -- this is not to make it over dramatic. But you get a little nervous you think this could be something. -- -- Big -- head to head in June 1 November 30 I hunt him. The whole thing is that now I mean it is as we're all too familiar with your specially which gets about saying it's. Latter part of August through September it's -- like dates that skipped through this next month and and I think we can breathe easier. So I mean -- the suit could give it a little storm or something pop and up in the gulf early on in the season. But usually it's -- that time account today. And happen. And then. It's you go to -- and am I nervous I mean I'm I'm a high stress person already is it is so. You know once I start seeing you know one of the computer models showing something going towards -- over something that's argued that little. Anxiety because I know we're gonna start getting phone calls this people are gonna start seeing that insert the coming years the coming years while we don't know -- a long way off hasn't even developed so. You know and as we get closer like now is when I start feeling a little more. You know do you -- gonna start you know now we start watching this since are paying attention to this in this and start looking more out into the tropics you know closer to us as opposed to weigh on in Atlantic you know this early in the season but. Yeah I start getting a little more of anxiety as we get into hurricane season. You know I think the real test of what you won't do is -- again now that the technology allows all of us to see. The various nobody college when you're looking at the next big amounts spaghetti models that and they do look like spaghetti yes how you all determine. This is junk and this could possibly being end. That's the skill. Well what you would enforce the consensus of all those lines on the map you wanna see a lot of them agree and when a lot of agree it's an indication that maybe this is what the storm's going to do. I give -- case in point. With Isidore. It was a hurricane coming out of the Caribbean sea all the models had it coming straight to Louisiana. One model hating going to the central gulf with all the other -- stop and come backs out and move over the Yucatan. That was one model of course at that time you see is models about the -- what's the deal that would well. That's exactly what is it nor did it came backs out and it stalled over the Yucatan and it weaken as a tropical storm over the content but it stayed there for a couple of days. And that persistent wide circulation around it is what brought a lot of our water even though the storm was far away and that's how we got a lot of water ready building up along our coastline then eventually -- -- doors started moving back north. And came towards us and brought. More of a storm surge but it was a tropical storm when it hit us. And and it did exactly what that one model that look like was out to lunch to do so you never know which you look for that consensus of. All the models. You know -- I've often said and I know I tend to humanize things that -- should be humanize the I think of a storm like that is sort of this living breathing. Entity. That can change its mind exactly what you -- talking about and try to -- One of the things I learned from -- when I got to work with them you know bit in my early days the channel four was that each one is unique. You don't compare one to the other. And you look at each one according to what's going on right now. So that's one one of the things I can say I title I learned from Nash and you know god rest and we'll we love Nash in. The man was a fountain of knowledge so whatever I could pick up from him. I was glad to listen because -- that you wanted to learn you know what Nash said. Absolutely and and I'm just reminded again of what -- day when you were giving out those dates. You know similar situations that we are facing today and 576365. And yet each one had something different so. That's exactly right it is unique. It -- that really are I mean you beat you can't compare one hurricane to another. It's just they're gonna do with their -- -- look what happened back in the 2001. Cult members this one for sure hurt your tropical storm Allison. Early season. It you know winning the Houston dropped by three feet or rain there came to Louisiana dropped anywhere from foot to two feet arraigned here. Com in now and assists. There's nothing else like it just sits there installs -- -- and it does its own thing. And so that's why you know you got to take these you know OK how's this we're gonna do it -- -- should go this way it should technically do this but you know it's gonna do it wants. And I think people. You know viewers myself included are somewhat spoiled. Because you all with your technology and knowledge are able to show us in some ways. -- the thunderstorm is over your neighborhood or that the tornado was within three minutes of this and shall we think you know everything. And that you can direct. And -- and if you know -- realistically that is true but I think the expectations are always so high and yet. They can change the systems can change right and your mind can change. Oh yes and you know I think one thing people understand in this area and I've learned that in my almost. 23 years here is that people here and in southeast Louisiana Mississippi coast they understand that they know that I I know people understand that this weather's. Prediction is that typical thing to do and people understand that I've never had anybody really. Totally -- raider upset or you know wanting to. Throw stones at me or anything like that because I think people understand that is it is very difficult area we live in and and there's many different factors between the late in the gulf and all these addictive and -- aspects that. That are geographically associated with our area that people understand that and I think that's one good thing about this area. Alexander. What intrigues you most about being a weather forecast. -- -- -- But I guess is that it it affects absolutely everything united affects everything we do. Growing up I I love to read I'm really -- blocks and even in you know -- -- six and I like you know English literature and and every story I read you know the letters sent to central central Maine you know it's right about the -- I just think the weather's a system goes the library don't I. Like the place is that the central in eyes of those central to everybody's you know you can and can't ignore it and it's cool to be able to talk about incidents of study -- Very good what about -- day. Well when I was a don't kid I was deathly afraid of thunderstorms dance. With crop my parents and golden knights and as -- got older my parents like you know overcome this fear. Seventeenth time this -- exactly. And die so. During the summer reading -- for all the moms -- this thing out there ball to the library it's for some really want to check out some books about whether. Maybe you'll understand this is about third fourth grade you know why. It happens. I'm whatever and -- turn off my dead checked one book to book -- that -- and every book library had weathered stock. And so I can say is the fourth career this is what I wanted to do for a living. Fast forward many years later and it's my fear became into more fascination with. Irons was able to go out storm chasing the great plains demolish and you know it's one thing to. CA on TV Taiwan about it textbook but to watch the storm develop any fault -- for your -- -- in C. Meteorologist in action and understand. That's what that meant we -- about class that's with that is there. And it's just it's just you know -- needed the fascination is just the air out while it. Love forecasts in the -- that the challenges. -- this past winner Carl Alexander will agree. Ice storms in the world and so I mean. You know what that you can see it on all of your faces and it you're just real pros and you can tell you love what you do I wish we had more time. You all of the best thank you Carl days Alexandra. Good luck this hurricane season aren't that -- alliance and we'll be right back. I so appreciate our wonderful meteorologists and channel for joining us. And I hope he'll continue to stay with us as we talk about what can we do to stop the violence stay with this.