Jul 10, 2014|
Garland talks to former US Department of State Middle East specialist Michele Dunne and J. Street VP of Communications Alan Eisner about how regional conflicts in the Middle East affect us here at home
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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Welcome back and it is as if the flames couldn't get in the higher in the Middle East. If you've been following. Applause is through attacking -- -- camera. Called it's for 40000 reservists stay in Israel and more. And as always when Miriam at least -- words we grew to be experts -- veterans and it. Written show don't -- -- senior associate Carnegie endowment of international -- Middle East program. Former Middle East specialist says he goes Department of State. The show thank you boot time I appreciate very much. On important what you call what were watching his is at war isn't preliminary read to present a police action. -- -- I would call it so far a limited wars so far it's just an air war. And unfortunately this is a repeat that something we've seen several times they're been in these air wars between. Israel and Hamas and got -- almost every year for the past six or seven years this one particularly intense. But so far it's not a ground war now there is the possibility just mentioned Israel calling up preserve -- and Israel is certainly considering. Sending ground troops into Gaza if that happens. A lot more people will die and fortunately and we party scene. They you know there are rockets raining down on Israel but Israel to be able to stop a lot of them with a missile defense system applied and supplied by the United States. But the Israeli missiles are raining down on -- and we've seen about eighty people died in Gaza over the last couple days. If I remember currently dislike the third incident like troops in the last five years. What makes the -- a little bit more in tents. There there has been an escalation of tension between Israel and Hamas. Stepped started. You know that that the cease -- there was a ceasefire in place between Israel Hamas for the last year and a half and November of 2012. Had been breaking down a little -- there were starting to be more rockets coming out. Coming out of Gaza where Israel over the past few months. But then there was this incident in the West Bank where three Israeli teenagers were kidnapped. Israel. Accused Hamas of being responsible for that and then tensions escalated very quickly after that. I'm at -- aware that a three young men were found dead. Then there was the Palestinians killed by apparently by some Israelis in retribution and things spun out of control very quickly. The and to respond in hand and things have gotten out of control very -- demeanor been something like. Over 400 rockets have hit. Israel from Gaza in the last few days and then -- even more I think Israeli rockets have gone into Gaza and then at this point unfortunately. The parties are saying about the year. There they're not interested in the cease fire I mean they're still in it you know things are still in a piece of ethically rather than -- escalating. And that this is the question that goes round about ten as. Here or there pure chances of an escalating his -- and Craig may have -- wrong. When Morrissey was in charge and injure -- Egypt and Hamas have a partnership notes journals easiest thing. Doesn't have that partnership. Those Hamas. Because of that have -- right not have the wherewithal to escalate. Can you -- an important issue here Ireland which is that all the party's right now are her are really in the -- and not looking for a cease fire they will be looking for. -- And one hopes that all happened before there's a ground war right but at any rate at some point. They're going to be looking for -- and the question is who can broker -- Because the situation in the region have changed significantly since 2012. And Hamas is very isolated now. Win more -- who was from the Muslim -- it was president. Egypt Egypt brokered the last ceasefire. Between. Egypt and Israel. Even before -- it was in Egypt the old Egyptian government under Mubarak both for the 2011 revolution. Relatively decent ties with Hamas but -- although -- relations between. The Egyptian military did general who has now become president of Egypt since last -- President at least see the relations that's a monster -- course that it's not. It's not clear whether Egypt could mediate a cease fire. There're a couple of other parties in the region like the Arab gulf of Qatar and Turkey who have pretty good relations with Hamas. So -- at some point. Andy's -- need to be some party that can deal with Hamas and get them to be happily. While of course a party such as the United States that has good relations with Israel would. Would work from that side. -- -- extra Wear this suit in the Korean Michelle -- senior associate in the Carnegie endowment. Also former Middle East specialist. At US Department of State. Michelle -- the iron dome. That seems to be working for is ruled those -- not. Yes it's working very well I mean this -- an Israeli developed system but now largely financed by the United States. And what it did you know they are able to intercept. Missile -- that they don't intercept every one they just intercepted those they think are going to land in populated areas. So from what I see I would say they're they're intercepting. Something like one out of every four or five. Rockets that are fired out of Gaza. He had the rocket that that the Palestinians fire out of Gaza are not very carefully targeted I mean they're just turning trying to get them to general areas of Israel rather than specific targets the Israelis are able to beat. Much more specific with the targets that they hit instead of god that's. But of course the government don't have a system a missile defense system like -- which has so far. Israel has intercepted all of these and that has meant that although they're in these hundreds of rockets fired. There have been no Israelis killed or even even significantly injured so far. In the last few days as a result of this because they're they're intercepting them. If there would be a war. Of the same time that there seems to be so much war in the middle use. And in even want to northern war -- ruby -- Constantly read about. Is if there was war in between is room home -- at this point. What do you have the Middle East rep precautions. That it usually does when there's a -- six day war in -- from. While they're there is a lot going on in your region. But even you know it -- it is scary if there's a ground war it's gonna take police in kind of got. Right that that would mean that. Israeli troops to go into Gaza and would fight on the ground in Gaza as they did back in 2009. I don't think there's there's no reason to expect that other Arab countries are Arab armies would get involved they didn't the last time around. And as you know appear even much more going on now with with with Syria and Iraq -- and so forth so. I would expect other Arab army to get involved I'm out there could be some diplomatic repercussions. Fear could be you know their -- countries that have pastries and Israel Egypt and Jordan they could withdraw their ambassadors. Things like that that can happen in Israel could certainly. Come under a lot of international criticism for this as they did last time now by the way the UN Security Council held a meeting this morning. -- which both the Israeli and the Palestinian representative to the United Nations spoke. The UN Secretary General spoke and I understand there's a closed meeting going on there's a question of whether the UN Security Council will issue -- statements. About what calling -- and if they do will it condemns specifically. Either Hamas or the Israeli government for what they are doing. So you know there can be international criticism but I -- I think and it could have implications for Israel's relations. With other countries whether Arab countries Turkey maybe even Europe. But I don't think either -- you would get involved. Looks. Switch courses. Help me with -- rock. Ices Euro -- who would -- wondered news. Are now saying they've established. Cal Perry in combination of rock in Syria. And -- same time you get Saudi arabians. Wounded tribal leaders. Asking them to turn against the soon the extremist. App through the years who encouraged the Sunnis. To undermine. This year those under Malarkey. And now you've got Russia. And wrong. Getting involved in both curia and the rock. First bush and how to -- prices. Establish what they've got out of the death that close to Baghdad. -- of Iran Russia and others lined up against them the number -- getting confusing as to who's on which side. Yeah your right it is confusing and I think it's important to see that that. Did the difference between -- -- and machine problems is. Is something that. In other powers outside powers who were struggling against each other for example Saudi Arabia on behalf of the Sunnis in Iran and behalf. The fascia. It is it's something that these these. These outside -- used in here sort of proxy war. With each other right and and that unfortunately you know is what has happened inside Iraq -- inside of -- keep all that -- had. A leader you know -- Shiite Muslims the prime minister Mel -- who has unfortunately you know we -- excluded. Send the Iraqis and so forth from from. Awful here in the government and and so forth and so. You know despite that this terrorist groups that is that the -- terrorist group has. Has found ally. In northern and central Iraq against the government and I I think that a lot of those allies who may be. Some of the Sunni tribes inside of Iraq and some. The people who were affiliated with the old regime of Saddam Hussein. I think they probably don't believe that night this ideology they're not necessarily fundamentalist themselves they probably don't believe in the Islamic do you look at that -- -- has proclaimed in Iraq. And yet they're they're so desperate to get rid of -- -- in the current government in Baghdad that they are willing to beats. Short term allies you know this is the tragedy of what's going on in Iraq. And I think that you know we we do have outside players here Iran is supporting. -- he's very strongly. The united -- just trying to push Melky and the the Iraqis to form a more inclusive government in. Try to keep the country together but I have to tell you. In the expert community -- hear more and more people. Who are Middle East expert here in the United States means they they are now doubting whether Iran will hold together. It's not happy. Scenario but that certainly that referred to in the north Iraq are pushing very strongly to pull away. And we might very well see Iraq break into two or three pieces. Where in the somebody driving and -- listening to the Chicago. Does any of that now that we're talking about it and more Middle East does it affect us. Well it -- -- us you know because that's one of the I mean it would look at what are the primary American interest in the Middle East. There's that top ten who really have been fighting we don't want it terrorist threat. To either to the US homeland or to Americans abroad. And we won there to be free flow of energy from the region. Because even though the United States doesn't import itself that much of its energy from them at least. It affects the global price of oil and gas and so forth if there's so much turmoil intimately that you can't get energy. And then the and other issue of course is Israel's security of Israel as an ally. And other US allies in the region as well so I think particularly. The terrorism issue. Is it very big point here because if that we party -- Syria become a breeding ground. Four G had the terrorism. And Iraq cannot do that where if there's. And a terrorist group that is able to. Create at safety and and they are attracting. Recruits. From people who have European passport even American passports or growing area and hill man. Come back to our country and be your real threat here it's something we have to take it seriously it's. It doesn't mean the United States can't or should go in and fix every problem in the Middle East. But if we we we ignored these things at our Carol because unfortunately. As we saw in 9/11 that the problems of the Middle East will come here to visit us. And I hear everything your saying. And doing this finger very rabid conservatives say. Where you -- culturally you're -- been severely under its age but our little unscientific -- in the polls are read nationwide. When you say that the American people George what use senate which is all very reasonable and very true. They say. What we've seen what -- dude in Iraq and Afghanistan. And other pleats in the middle aged sorry. We're we're -- to go and or what what happened is that. Yeah -- the war fatigued it's Mary. And reasonable you know and and Americans did you know paying a heavy price in human terms -- in financial terms for -- -- -- It you know in my head in my in my own opinion. The war in Afghanistan was necessary the invasion of Iraq. Not so much however it did happen you know and we did stir the hornets nest there. And and we have to deal with the repercussions of that. That doesn't mean you know ground invasions and occupations. And all match. There are ways in which the United States can use its diplomacy and the -- continues its its military power. In in smarter ways and and not feel that we have to we have to go in ourselves and fix everything. Though I. I mean I wanna go into a lot of detail but I'd certainly I I don't think that. US invasion of these countries. -- the answer here and -- can certainly understand why Americans don't wanna go there anymore. The show without being able to talk somebody -- -- or expertise user. Very complicated issues we've never come close to understand and even -- so that. So appreciated that time during my Treo agreed to. Both the middle in Jordan confusing. And off. Now laws and natural backed candidate again. As something called iron dome and and we've sold that room defense against rockets. As reading bill that -- -- knocked down twenty that -- that way and I think there. Knocking them down selectively. Knocking down only ones are concerned about using. Inhabited career. Good to better understand. As to whether or not is this war and now what's going on. Or is -- going to go to war we're looking in that Nutten you calling up. 40000 reservists. And we had his gives same thing apart remember correctly. About threes some horrible and terrible as five years desist -- any more different candidate escalade and as usual. We go to via experts tree of Alvin old sooner with the vice president communications. And jayshree own book and the Chicago. So what is so is isn't war. I'm not exactly war but -- -- that in your introduction of the kind of outbreak of this. Parts since 2008 since the end of 2008. And what you have -- Hamas that terrorist. Movement that is designated as such by the United States running. The Gaza Strip and to. Periodically sending -- breast rockets against an Israeli civilians Israeli towns and villages and every so often the Israelis. Coming with a major offensive to try and shut it down. This one is is a bit different because. Principle that the current weaponry he gets more sophisticated every time -- -- longer and longer range rockets. -- -- threaten most of Israel. And the second thing is that usually what happens in these situations is the egyptians eventually stepped in as the mediator -- and organizes cease fire. But now -- relations with between Hamas and Egypt -- very band and with the new Egyptian president so it's not clear. -- the mediator is going to be. Right now neither side seems to be in a big hurry to its end this round of confrontation and of course the civilian casualties in Gaza. On mounting. Right. This morning if they stand at around eight seats so it's a very very sad and tragic and -- situation. Not exactly Euro on top pick. When when I was watching some of the reports it's on the rocket did you said Lone Ranger in the hands and marched. But have fallen I think Colin read on the outskirts of Jerusalem. -- they would they really put Brockton in Jerusalem when they. Broadened the risk of blowing up some other moves to a religious Charlotte's. Well I have fired several rockets to Jerusalem and the content and indiscriminately. As you said the alliance don't system which is and financed the United States that jointly. Developed by Israel and the United States has -- 90% success rate in -- knocking down. These rockets which -- Klein a phenomenal just in the last 24 hours. Taking full rocket hit Israel and Orlando and intercepted twelve of them. They not that that the kind of missiles that the the Hamas dancing I'm not precision guided missiles they -- they can name in the general area but they don't know exactly. Where they gonna. It and we're gonna hit. I should tell you just seen a personal anecdote my parents. Live in the town. In Norfolk Toby and yesterday -- the sirens. Another bomb shelters in the basement of the house from my father's 96 and my mother has said constant. Parkinson's disease in the schools there's no way that they could get down to visit the basement so they basically sat there and just hope for the best. And it's it's very tragic that my mother he could -- From a British acts and I was born in Britain my mother's -- -- -- -- -- Incredibly it's pin for them not to bombing of London in 19409041. And it's just incredibly sand that that. And in this part of her life she's she's going back and -- and hearing those sirens again. That sent salute we -- The reason I was asking. If in the give the rockets have penetrated bureau inside wall in Jerusalem. It seems like that would be very risky on -- part right. Yet that so. Well fortunately that has not happened. That you you might even say that they're relying on the and to shoot down any -- but it really -- -- -- Civilian areas and the system works is that the computer basically makes the judgment every time as a launch. As to where it's gonna land and because they find them it is an expensive. System to two to operate. They basically. Make a judgment whether you know and in in. -- populated areas in which case they don't try to shoot the -- -- -- threat to. When the populated area but another point is that you know places like Jerusalem a very much Palestinian population and so. And one of the Palestinian complaints and is it justified complaints is that Israel has not developed. Possible. Defense infrastructure of the Palestinians in the same ways as. For Israelis so that every building in Israel to -- building code. Has to have a -- should go to and then their public auction notices well in the cities. Which -- being opened. But in East Jerusalem where. Hundreds thousands of Palestinians -- they don't have that infrastructure. So -- rocket would again through and we we've -- need to pray that that doesn't happen. Then they wouldn't have any weight on it. And and couldn't being destroyed by the wrong people. Correct here -- lift himself apart callers were talking about the Middle East. Ribbon expert with -- -- and el Janeiro -- -- -- communications. And energy Sri jumped -- city leaders who will ensure along with the. Mike. -- out one thing that speaks of volume as shoot the moral and ethical issues going -- bad is. When the tree Israeli Sheen were murder the Arab people were choice and thought it was wonderful. -- in the air -- strong murder the Israeli people thought it was a horrible horrible situation. The Arabs are killing each other they have though they appear to have no moral or ethical fibers to the and just mull that over. -- -- well I'd I'd still like to accept those kind of the world generalize patients that all Arabs and adult Jews or Israelis to do it. -- long as an outpouring of -- in Israel at the -- that two or three young Israelis to move may be maybe -- we don't know. Would've taken an innocent teenager. Off the streets just because he's the Palestinian and kill him in such a brutal sadistic way just to. Remind news sixteen year old will respond in -- calm he was and beaten almost to death and and he was set guidelines when he was still alive. And those Israelis who did that so I don't think that we can you do to absolve themselves. Of that deal to take. He's in no position. We roll back in the and they. And and that's -- measurement that we really want to kind of it's an assistant to. Yeah Hamas is a terrorist group and we expect Hamas to be conducting terrorism that's their business. But we don't wanna compare ourselves to it to them. So and you can't ignore the fact left although. All of these rockets being fired at Israel. Thank god there is that he technological. Solution that really -- and downs of an Israeli. Casualties have been made it more and nobody is the idea but on the other side of the equation. Just today I've written about. An Israeli rockets slamming into a cafe. In Gaza with people watching World Cup soccer game and they were not terrorists and nine of them killed. So you know these kind of mistakes happen in war. And it and the tragic thing happen when the United States is engaged in war in Iraq. And they happened in Afghanistan and the happening Gaza but just ordinary people paid the price. So I I don't think that these kind of broad generalizations help in anyway. On. How believed would our numbers segment of the move -- Iraq could will be broken into -- part separated well. You know that's not the carrier my expertise so it really kind of you know -- what I read in the papers. And but it seems that that department that the country is indeed in the coming up poverty and into three sections in the because it's we will take an opportunity. To declare independence and that will be the the kind of the best story of Europe because the Kurdish region is broadly Democrats say ten has a free press and abilities situations in the building an economy. The Sunnis and the Shiites continues to fight this horrible. Civil law we massive casualties that tendencies incident that make the casualties in Gaza mica a picnic. And of course we we will note that in in Syria the civil wars played -- and -- and 8000 people. And none of ten million of them refugees on the inside or outside the country. So when you look at that region I think Americans can be excused for thinking that the whole region is somehow contestants. In that we should have nothing to do with it -- I think that would be a mistake the United States remains. Superpower. And we have a a big responsibility for happened in Iraq. And and I think that the parties in in the Middle East Israelis and Palestinians and looking to the United States senate to help. For diplomatic problem boots on the ground -- like past the diplomatic opening trying to defuse India story this crisis before too many more people killed. Alone Europe convicts for two uses. Invaluable for Ross front window and then very complicated subject thank you bring -- you're very welcome -- by. All right back to the polls closed that building the average bill appreciate the call. Yes. On the popular vote. Send our troops. In the country -- regardless -- to the lower their wish I had to change. The country -- on -- or change your country. Our resident here described hatred -- And on the -- could you are could -- change. Look what what you're talking about it some and I've been talking about Perot. The starting I guess it was Vietnam. We no longer fight a war we'd like part troll wars. War urged users to be kind of like a prize fight whoever god beat up to clear the other -- wonder. And in the wars we've fought world war more important to him number bothers. We took over we. Dominated them with water birth and then we impose our will. Will we don't do that and we're going for a little while in the and a video of the awards terms of American people. -- the costs of we stayed too long -- -- who consequently. We start stop fighting the war in storm. Doing holding action. Which costs more makes it lasts longer. I think that part of why so many dogs and gnome apps you talk all you want to about the dangers. We just so wounded troops important shall in the war. Double -- come right.